Oil: The Long Goodbye (Foreign Policy Magazine Special Report)

[NickB79]

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/node/47222

I haven't had time to read it all, but I thought others here would like to read the articles as well.

[Braulio]

1. Peak Oil

It's a pretty decent article, but it conveys a false sense of security. There are two very harsh realities it fails to deal with: 1) There's a lot of oil located where the owners lack either the political or technical will to produce it (Venezuela, Iraq, Saudi Arabia), and 2) There's a limit to the industry capacity to react to impending shortages, that is there aren't enough skilled personnel to get the oil out of the ground without elasticity, and this leads to price surges. And the system is so chaotic and hard to predict, we can only hope the American people will realize some day that energy efficiency is a darned good idea, because self-sufficiency isn't about to happen when the country uses energy the way it does.

[tama]

3. 3)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model

[wuvuj]

2. Found...confirmation of the connection between the economy and oil prices....and peak oil...

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50109


Man with the bona fides speaks....


Question: Your recent paper makes it sound as if we’ve been on an oil production plateau since late 2004.

Kopits: That’s correct. If I dispassionately just look at the numbers, the oil supply has not improved that much since the 4th quarter of 2004. And I don’t see anything on the horizon that makes it appear that we’re going to break out into a really new level of production that’s far different than what we have today. So if we’re talking about practical peak oil, my view is that it started in late 2004.



Question: Could you tell us about your views on the US oil price threshold for recessions?

Kopits: The US has experienced six recessions since 1972. At least five of these were associated with oil prices. In every case, when oil consumption in the US reached 4% percent of GDP, the US went into recession.

Right now, 4% of GDP is $80 oil. So that’s my current view: If the oil price exceeds $80, then expect the US to fall back into recession.


* Oil is currently at $71.30 and Bernanke says the recession has ended.*

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC


Move the slider to the left...

http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$SPX,$WTIC,XLE

See what happened to the price of oil in 2005 and later?

[Dogmudgeon]

4. Good find. I'd missed it.

I expect the recession to ease up or end soon, since our recession-driven efforts to conserve energy are also driving the price of energy down. This isn't the only factor involved, but it's one of the fundamentals -- if Obama can indeed rein in health costs, that will also help the economy. But energy markets oscillate, so this won't be permanent. Chances are good that energy price instability will return in a few years, especially after a period of expansion and increased energy demand, if we continue to depend on fossil fuels.

The only way to get out of this quandary is to "do new stuff" -- like replace coal-oil-gas, go to an electric-car infrastructure with less private ownership and more public transit, wind down car culture in general, reform our agricultural practices, and so on. If we keep investing in what doesn't work, we will crash and burn. But obviously, investment (human and capital) in ever-better technologies will be beneficial.

By "better", I don't mean so much more material growth, but more growth in value. I think, economically, that's the real frontier.

--d!

[NNadir]

5. Foreign Policy does a great job on energy issues. In 1976 it published a great

article by Amory Lovins, dangerous fossil fuel salesman, claiming that solar energy (and conservation) will save us by 2000.

...Just saying...

The reason to ban oil has nothing to do with its supply. It has everything to do with the fact that there are zero people who know how to store dangerous fossil fuel waste for eternity, zero people who can prevent dangerous fossil fuel war, zero people who can stop dangerous fossil fuel terrorism, and zero people who can prevent dangerous fossil fuel accidents.

Of course, there are zero people who worship the banal and stupid rhetoric of Amory Lovins, dangerous fossil fuel salesmen, who give a rat's ass about dangerous fossil fuel war, dangerous fossil fuel terrorism, dangerous fossil fuel waste or dangerous fossil accidents.