German Analysts - 2C Rise Locked In; Maldives, Tuvalu Already Gone: 3C Will End Most Coral Reefs

[hatrack]

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A report by German-based consultants Climate Analytics says wealthy countries will arrive in Denmark with proposals that would lead to a joint cut in greenhouse gas emissions of between 13 and 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. Australia's contribution is a 5 to 25 per cent cut, with the final figure dependent on the level of international agreement reached.

The industrialised world target is well below the 25 to 40 per cent range that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found would be necessary for a 50/50 chance of keeping the temperature rise near two degrees.

Factor in climate policies proposed by major developing nations, including China, and global emissions could increase 35 per cent between 1990 and 2020 - a rise that is said to lock in the inundation of island countries such as Tuvalu, the Maldives and Kiribati. Scientists have warned that global emissions must peak between 2015 and 2020 to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

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Climate Institute chief executive John Connor, who commissioned the analysis, said it showed that signing up to inadequate 2020 emissions targets would lead to a global warming of 3 degrees, which would destroy the world's coral reefs. Attempting to reduce emissions after 2020 would require abrupt annual cuts of between 4 and 6 per cent a year until 2050, he said. The rate of change was likely to cause severe economic disruption. ''Inadequate climate action in the short-term also risks tripling current rates of global warming,'' already being seen in Australia in intense droughts, bushfires and heatwaves.

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http://www.smh.com.au/environment/warming-rescue-plan-doomed-report-warns-20091204-kb1e.html

[izquierdista]

1. "must" peak?

There is nothing the physical world "must" do to accommodate humans; there is a lot that humans need to do to accommodate to the physical world that they are changing. I don't think it is realistic to expect that exponential cuts can be made to the use of fossil fuels. What is more likely is that we are at the peak of the Gaussian curve describing fossil fuel extraction and that on the downside of the curve, CO2 will continue to rise, in mirror image of its rise on the leading edge. That easily puts the world at 500ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere in another century, along with all its concomitant effects.

[joshcryer]

2. We're moving into an "accept and mitigate" phase.

It's actually inundated this forum, in fact.