French Analysts Peg China's CO2 Output As Doubling By 2020 - AFP

[hatrack]

BEIJING (AFP) – Despite China's pledges to improve energy efficiency, its carbon emissions could double by 2020 as compared with 2005 levels, surpassing limits seen as key to fighting global warming, experts say.

As officials in Copenhagen discuss how nations can share the global burden of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, experts are crunching the numbers to determine the future level of emissions by China, the world's top polluter. Even if China keeps its promise to reduce carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 40 to 45 percent by 2020, and if its economy grows by just eight percent, its gas output could still double, they say.

"With eight percent growth, emissions will increase by 74 percent," said Emmanuel Guerin, a climate analyst at France's Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI). "China, having emitted 7.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2005, will spew out 12.6 gigatonnes in 2020," he told AFP by telephone from the Danish capital.

"That is one gigatonne too many, according to the scenario laid out by (leading climate change expert) Nicholas Stern, who put the range at 7.9-11.6 gigatonnes." The estimated total emissions by China is also equal to nearly 29 percent of the worldwide goal.

EDIT

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091210/sc_afp/unclimatewarmingchina