Electric cars a losing bet?

[bik0]

some snips from a Bloomberg article...

Ghosn Overruling Electric Engineers Makes Lutz See Losing Bet

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The crowd of 600 falls silent as an employee asks Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn if he’s staking too much of Nissan Motor Co.’s future on electric cars and not enough on green alternatives like Toyota Motor Corp.’s Prius gas-electric hybrid.

Ghosn is so sure the vision will work that he’s building factories to assemble 500,000 EVs a year -- 10 times more units than General Motors Co. is planning to make of its Volt hybrid.

Ghosn predicts that EVs will grab 10 percent of worldwide industry sales by 2020. He has pledged to spend $6 billion on EV technology from 2007 to 2011 -- an amount equal to the combined annual research and development budgets at Nissan and Renault.

For Rod Lache, a Deutsche Bank AG analyst in New York, the cost of electric vehicles’ battery packs is a major constraint. A pack as big as the Leaf’s costs $15,600, Lache says. That compares with about $30 for a gas tank in conventional cars that travel four times farther.

‘Massive Losses’
Eric Noble, president of research firm The CarLab in Orange, California, says the metals used in batteries are getting more expensive. In 2009, lithium carbonate cost $6,500 a metric ton, almost triple 2006 prices, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
“The result will be massive losses,” Noble says of Ghosn’s EV effort.

Bill Reinert, Toyota’s U.S. manager for advanced technology who helped design the Prius, says range is a major detraction for electric vehicles.
“One hundred miles covers most daily trips but not all,” he says. “How many people can afford a specialized car that can’t be used on vacation?”

GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz says their limited range puts all-electric vehicles years from widespread adoption.

“He’s rolling the dice,” Lutz, 77, says of Ghosn’s battery-only tack. “I don’t see it happening.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aJEVrzt2t.8o&pos=11

[madrchsod]

1. electric vehicles will always have a small % of the market.

the future is electric-internal combustion or turbine engine power plants

[kristopher]

21. The facts don't support your conclusion.

Fossil fuels will increase substantially in price.
Batteries will decrease substantially in price.
Batteries are already *physically* able to deliver acceptable range, performance and longevity for MOST drivers in the world.
Battery technology and design improvements already achieved in the lab and on road to manufacturing deliver up to 10X the storage of the ones already in use.

Lutz is a putz.

[rgbecker]

2. Truth is, in today's world, many families have multiple cars and so the issue....

of having to use the same car for long distance travel as a daily commute is mute.

Comparing a battery pack with a gas tank is a bit of stretch, Though technically they are both for storing energy.

The success of electric cars is dependent on the cost of oil. The savings involved with charging up an electric car vs. filling a gas tank are now already substantial. When gas is 7, 8 or 10 dollars a gallon, those who have electric cars they can charge up on a coal, nat gas, nuclear, wind and water powered grid will be laughing on the way to the bank.

Three cheers for Nissan, who will be out front with these cars fully developed when those prices are posted at your local gas station.

Finally, a quick change battery pack will be the final answer for electric car use. Carpenders across the country, just a few years ago, were slow to consider battery powered drills etc. With the quick interchange of batteries, reducing down time waiting for the battery to charge, tools of all sorts are battery powered and used extensively.

DUers might be more familiar with the battery powered laptop and cell phone. Non existant 30 years ago...now everywhere.

[TxRider]

3. Exactly

What he is betting on is the price of oil going up and staying up in the next few years.

Millions of households have two incomes, two jobs, and two cars to get them there.

Many of those do this with one small car, and one larger car. The smaller car just for one earner commuting, the larger for the other earner commuting and family travel use. The smaller car could easily go electric in that scenario.

But it is still not cost effective for that family unless the price of gas goes up and stays there. The up front additional cost for the electric vehicle is a significant barrier, and with low gas prices it will not make up that cost difference in savings over it's lifetime which is an even bigger barrier. A consistent high price for gasoline would eliminate the bigger of the two barriers, longer term financing or possibly cheaper battery technology can eliminate the smaller barrier.

[madokie]

30. An ev would do us most of our driving.

very seldom do we need to go a total of 50 miles in one day. Most days we drive maybe 5 miles at most and thats between the two of us.

[TxRider]

33. That's not the point

I could do my driving on electric as well.

The issue is it would cost me more than driving a gas burning car. The extra cost of the electric car would not pay for itself in fuel savings for 15 years.

If gasoline goes up 3-4x in the next 5 years, suddenly electric becomes cheaper.

[crikkett]

5. I have no car and plan to keep it that way. My carbon footprint is boastworthy.

I compost kitchen scraps too

( :P )

[steven johnson]

4. The economics don't look good for electric vehicles

The Volt is expected to cost around $40,000 and the Leaf $30,000. Luxury models like Karma and Tesla Motors' Roadster could cost up to $100,000. Even with the electric vehicle $7,500 federal tax credit this year, this is a really steep cost curve for a Volt going a maximum of 40 miles on electric charge or 250 miles with the the gasoline recharger. Even the 100 mile maximum for battery only cars limits the vehicles use.

Recharging stations are not widely available

The study, conducted by the Boston Consulting Group, said battery costs were not expected to fall as much as automakers have projected, making electric vehicles too expensive for most consumers even 10 years from now.

The firm predicted that electric cars would account for just 6 percent of the global market in 2020, or about three million of an estimated 54.5 million vehicles sold over all.

The main factor, the study says, is price. It predicts that the cost of a battery pack about the size of the Volt’s will fall by $10,000, or 64 percent, from 2009 to 2020. But even then it would take about 15 years for the cost of owning an electric vehicle to equal that of a gas-powered car.

Most consumers would buy an electric vehicle only if they could break even on ownership costs within three years, said Xavier Mosquet, who leads the consulting firm’s automotive practice in Detroit. He said a three-year time frame would require significant government incentives or a drastic change in one or more factors, like oil prices of about $375 a barrel, more than quadruple today’s price.

Study Raises Cost Estimate for Electric Cars

[TxRider]

7. That would tend to say

That it would take about a 5x increase in gas prices to make it viable.

I question the accuracy of that.

But we will see $375 a barrel for oil at some point. In the next 5 years? possibly.

[tinrobot]

11. Those numbers are very fishy...

It predicts that the cost of a battery pack about the size of the Volt’s will fall by $10,000, or 64 percent, from 2009 to 2020

Current large format lithium battery prices are about $350/kwh retail, $250/kwh wholesale (raw batteries, without battery management.) At those prices, the Volt's 16kWh battery would cost from $4,000-$5,600 for the batteries, plus a little more for the management system and enclosures. I seriously doubt it would cost more than $10,000 for the whole pack, so dropping $10,000 off the price would mean it becomes free or below free. Highly doubtful.

In fact, even Chevy disputes these numbers:

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/03/gm-fights-back-chevy-volt-plug-in-hybrid-battery-cost.php

[wtmusic]

6. Wise investors put their money in whatever Bob Lutz says won't work.

You've got to love the logic of comparing a $15K battery pack to a tank of gas. :silly:

Or suggesting lithium carbonate is getting so much more expensive because of supply, and not demand.

Or by being ignorant of the fact that most households have two vehicles (“How many people can afford a specialized car that can’t be used on vacation?”)

:eyes:

[OKIsItJustMe]

8. Ghosn = Lutz (?)

The economics of the “Volt” make sense.

(Unlike a Prius for example) for most people, for most of the time, it will be a pure EV, with all of its inherent advantages. It also has the ability to extend its range, while a Prius is primarily an ICE-powered vehicle.

Compare this to the LEAF, which needs a larger battery pack, to give it an extended range, but not as much of an extended range as I would need to visit one of my brothers for a day, who live a scant ~60 miles away.

The “Volt’s” primary disadvantage is that the driver will always be hauling around a generator, “just in case” they need an extended driving range.

One significant advantage is that by having a smaller battery pack, the “Volt’s” purchase price can be lower than a fully electric vehicle with the same range:
http://gm-volt.com/2009/07/30/guest-post-from-gms-frank-weber-on-long-term-cost-advantage-of-erevs-over-bevs/

It’s all a matter of balancing advantages and disadvantages.

[wtmusic]

9. Lutz thought hybrids didn't "make sense" in 2002

so he has a proven record as a "contrary-indicator", as they like to say on Wall St.

Posting all these links to GM hype makes me think you have some vested interest. Do you? :shrug:

[OKIsItJustMe]

19. Nope, I have no vested interest, it was just a handy graph I remembered seeing in the past

I would say that in 2002, Lutz was (arguably) correct, but short-sighted.

Toyota lost money initially, and their customers lost money as well. (The increased efficiency of the Prius with 2002 gas prices would not pay for the increased sticker price.)

Where Lutz erred (in my opinion) was in underestimating oil price increases, and the PR value of the Prius.

Consumers saw GM represented by the excess of the "Hummer" and Toyota represented by the efficiency of the Prius, even though, for fleet gas mileage, the difference was really not that dramatic. (Toyota sold many more Tundra's than Priuses.)

Strangely, although on a fleet average, Honda was more efficient than Toyota, most people didn’t seem to know that, and perception is reality in marketing. (Personally, I preferred the simpler design of Honda’s hybrids to Toyota’s.)

Here are CAFE figures for 2002 (weighted by sales)
http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/CARS/rules/CAFE/FuelEconUpdates/2002/index.htm

DaimlerChrysler 26.5
Ford            28.1
General Motors  27.7
Honda           29.8
Toyota          29.3

[TheWraith]

10. I think that series-hybrid cars are a good design...

...Particularly if they can be easily converted to be fed a wide variety of fuels. But the only thing that separates battery-electric cars from the same sort of use-model as current cars is a tested and reliable means of fast-recharging their batteries. If you could pull in, hook up, and have even just a 50% charge on a 250 mile battery in say 5-10 minutes, that would be plenty for long-range driving.

[rgbecker]

16. The alternative to rapid recharge is a quick change out...like your battery drill.

[TheWraith]

17. True, but standardizing battery packs and handling the size/weight is harder.

Plus you have quality control issues, such as how do you know if a changing station is using substandard batteries that are only going to get you half the distance of the more valuable ones you're trading out?

Quick recharge makes more sense from both an engineering and an economic perspective: easier to build for, easier for the infrastructure to adapt to.

[rgbecker]

20. Most of what I have read on this shows the advantages of Utility owned batteries.

The batteries are standardized and owned by an utility (Energy company). This brings down the initial cost of the car as the batteries are amortized over their life and paid for with a monthly bill. Granted, this involves a huge investment by some utility company, but take a look at the PBS show from November, electric car dreams. The link is in one of my posts on this thread.

I'd like to see the rapid recharge battery be developed also, but the physics are hard. If we have to wait until then, most people will be car less and have figured out other ways to live.

The question is develop a system to us a simpler technology, or develop technology to avoid having to mess with a system and allow some individuality. This is the same in the fight against airplane terrorists. I think it will be a mix in the end, but I believe it will be all electric by 2025 because of gas prices. That's when your baby starts to drive.

[kristopher]

22. Quick recharge to 80% in 10 minutes is already becoming a reality. nt

[TheWraith]

31. But the technology for it isn't field tested the way other Li Ion techs are.

We're getting there, but for it to be used in something as mission critical as transportation, we have to have it down not to a science, but to an engineering solution. Plus we need to have the electrical infrastructure worked out. An ordinary wall socket will work to charge a cell phone to 80% in 10 minutes, but you'd need special lines for recharging a car. The Tesla Roadster, for instance, has a 53 KWh battery pack. To recharge that to 80 percent (42 kilowatt-hours) in 10 minutes would require--assuming 220 volt lines--a current of 1200 amps.

[kristopher]

32. Yes it has been.

As to the recharge requiring a HD line, yes, of course that is a factor; but that wasn't your point.

[rgbecker]

12. Just a few more thoughts on the electric car issue.

GM's ability to figure out what car buyers want may be good. But does is have anything to do with what People (rather than new car buyers) want? GM's taking the ev-1 off the California roads was an example of just where that company is concerning dong anything about the environment. You must see "Who killed the electric car" movie if you haven't yet.

A large limiting factor with the "Charge it at home" full electric car is the restricted market to those with private parking facilities accessible to their power. Those who park on the street or in public/private garages will find the car impossible to use. That is the reason I foresee the crossover to electric only happening when an infrastructure of charging/battery change out stations are established. As gas stations, having to charge all outdoors for gas, see their profits dry up as people turn away from using their gas hogs, they will be looking to enhance their revenues with battery charging/change out services just as they have by turning to the convenience store concept.

There was a very interesting show on pbs a month or so ago about Amsterdam, the Netherlands, turning to fast change out electric cars with the help of the government's huge tax on gas cars. People there are having to pay 50-100,000 dollars for a car because of that tax....I believe electric cars are not subject to the tax, thus the interest in the electric cars.

I'll look for a link to that show and post it below if I can find it.

[rgbecker]

14. Here's the link to the PBS NOW show: Electric car dreams.

http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/544/index.html

Available of DVD also.

This will a real test of what could be with electric cars.

[kristopher]

23. I don't think you realize how rapidly battery technology is advancing...

The battery swap-out idea is outdated, as is towing a small generator trailer for long trips. Those were proposals that gained traction *before* lithium proved itself safe.

The battery pack of the not too distant future (if designed at the same weight) will give a range of up about 800 miles. This is an example of one such breakthrough (there are others but this is the furthest along the development pipeline).

Nanowire battery can hold 10 times the charge of existing lithium-ion battery

BY DAN STOBER
Courtesy Nature Nanotechnology silicon nanowires

Stanford researchers have found a way to use silicon nanowires to reinvent the rechargeable lithium-ion batteries that power laptops, iPods, video cameras, cell phones, and countless other devices.

The new technology, developed through research led by Yi Cui, assistant professor of materials science and engineering, produces 10 times the amount of electricity of existing lithium-ion, known as Li-ion, batteries. A laptop that now runs on battery for two hours could operate for 20 hours, a boon to ocean-hopping business travelers.

"It's not a small improvement," Cui said. "It's a revolutionary development."

The breakthrough is described in a paper, "High-performance lithium battery anodes using silicon nanowires," published online Dec. 16 in Nature Nanotechnology, written by Cui, his graduate chemistry student Candace Chan and five others.

The greatly expanded storage capacity could make Li-ion batteries attractive to electric car manufacturers. Cui suggested that they could also be used in homes or offices to store electricity generated by rooftop solar panels.

"Given the mature infrastructure behind silicon, this new technology can be pushed to real life quickly," Cui said.

The electrical storage capacity of a Li-ion battery is limited by how much lithium can be held in the battery's anode, which is typically made of carbon. Silicon has a much higher capacity than carbon, but also has a drawback.

Silicon placed in a battery swells as it absorbs positively charged lithium atoms during charging, then shrinks during use (i.e., when playing your iPod) as the lithium is drawn out of the silicon. This expand/shrink cycle typically causes the silicon (often in the form of particles or a thin film) to pulverize, degrading the performance of the battery.

Cui's battery gets around this problem with nanotechnology. The lithium is stored in a forest of tiny silicon nanowires, each with a diameter one-thousandth the thickness of a sheet of paper. The nanowires inflate four times their normal size as they soak up lithium. But, unlike other silicon shapes, they do not fracture.

Research on silicon in batteries began three decades ago. Chan explained: "The people kind of gave up on it because the capacity wasn't high enough and the cycle life wasn't good enough. And it was just because of the shape they were using. It was just too big, and they couldn't undergo the volume changes."

Then, along came silicon nanowires. "We just kind of put them together," Chan said.

For their experiments, Chan grew the nanowires on a stainless steel substrate, providing an excellent electrical connection. "It was a fantastic moment when Candace told me it was working," Cui said.

Cui said that a patent application has been filed. He is considering formation of a company or an agreement with a battery manufacturer. Manufacturing the nanowire batteries would require "one or two different steps, but the process can certainly be scaled up," he added. "It's a well understood process."

http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2008/january9/nanowire-010908.html

And 2 weeks ago the economic question was pretty much settled when Panasonic decided to start manufacturing lithium battery packs for HOME use with renewable energy systems. The larger the market, the more money flows into manufacturing. The more money that flows into manufacturing, the more innovation and supply. The more innovation and supply there is, the cheaper the batteries become.

Panasonic plans home-use storage cell
December 23, 2009 The Yomiuri Shimbun Panasonic Develops High Energy Lithium-ion Battery Module with High Reliability

Enlarge

Panasonic Corp., which recently made a successful takeover bid for Sanyo Electric Co., plans to market a lithium-ion storage cell for home use around fiscal 2011.

"We'll be the first to bring to the market a storage battery for home use, which can store sufficient electricity for about one week of use," said Fumio Otsubo, president of Panasonic, in a recent interview with The Yomiuri Shimbun.

On Monday, Panasonic announced it has officially acquired a more than 50 percent stake in Sanyo.

It has become Japan's second-largest electronics giant, next to Hitachi, Ltd., with anticipated combined sales of 8.66 trillion yen for the business year ending in March.

Stressing that Panasonic and Sanyo have already test-manufactured a storage battery for home use, Otsubo said, "We're positioned closest to realizing CO2 emission-free daily life."

By making Sanyo its subsidiary, Panasonic plans to accelerate the development of the storage battery, while planning to sell it together with a system that will enable households to check electricity usage on a home-based TV display.

Solar batteries for home use and fuel cells can generate power but cannot store electricity, making the development of a storage battery an urgent task for related businesses.

"As we now have such power-generating products as solar power and fuel cells, there'll be an opportunity to create a bigger business...In the area of automobile cells, we can deal with all kinds of eco-friendly cars such as hybrid cars or electric vehicles," Otsubo said, emphasizing the synergistic effect of tying-up with Sanyo.

Otsubo said his company will announce its basic ideas with regards to reorganizing the two firms' growth strategies and overlapping product lines--such as large household appliances--on Jan. 8, while presenting specific ways to deal with the overlapping lines of business when the company announces its settlement of accounts in May.

Conceding that product brands of Panasonic and Sanyo need to be unified at some well-timed point in the future, Otsubo said many things need to be considered, adding that the company's new midterm plan would be worked out while keeping Sanyo's brands in place.

With the rise of the yen and accelerating deflationary pressure, the corporate environment remains harsh.

"We'll come up with products sought by middle-income people in such emerging countries as China and India, which haven't been hit by deflationary pressure... We hope to introduce Sanyo products to Panasonic's sales channels," he said.

http://www.physorg.com/news180778009.html

[tinrobot]

25. Even Nissan is hinting the range of the Leaf will double in 5 years

Nissan super-battery to 'double' e-car range

Nissan is only five years away from the commercial launch of an e-car battery with twice the energy storage capacity per unit weight of current batteries, the company has claimed.

According to Nissan, that means that, by 2015, its Leaf e-car will have a range of nearly 200 miles on a full charge.

The new batteries are expected to cost about the same to make as those the Leaf will use at launch next year.

http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2009/12/02/nissan_super_battery/

[kristopher]

27. Thanks for bringing that up.

I think part of the problem facing makers investing in EVs at this point is locking themselves into technology that is set to soon be obsolete. That has to discourage investment to a degree and it is a strong argument for governmental support of battery manufacturing at this stage.

[tinrobot]

28. Nissan's battery lease is probably aimed at this issue

It allows people to buy cars now without the fear of being obsoleted in a few years.

[kristopher]

29. Sounds like a good strategy. nt

[tinrobot]

13. I love my electric car.

Many people buy into the fear spread by people who have an interest in keeping the status quo - electric cars won't go as far, they're expensive, they take too long to charge up...

All these points are valid, but my experience has been that these issues really don't come up in day to day operation. My car only has a 40 mile range, which seems limited, but I've never run out of juice. I rarely need to drive more than 20 miles. I admit I do keep a second car for longer tips, but it does not get used that much. After driving my EV for a while, I don't have any desire for another gas car. I do want a better electric car and can't wait until they come out in the next few years. If I can get 100+ mile range, I won't need any other car.

I think once people actually drive electric cars, the fears will fade away and people won't want to go back to gas. They'll certainly want better electric cars, and that will spur demand and innovation. They will not demand better gas cars, however. Because of this, the tide will eventually shift.

[rgbecker]

15. Tell more about your car.

I had a Citicar, 1976. Batteries were way beyond much good and the speed was about 30 max, but it was good for getting to and from town on errands. Have considered building one, and have read a bit about it but I keep running into the high cost of initial investment. Gas cars are cheap, even free if you want to spend a little time on them. Hard to justify 900 for a motor, 1800 for batteries,1000 for controlers wire etc. Then there's the charger and the fun of putting it all together. Is yours a conversion or?

Thanks,

[tinrobot]

24. It's a 1974 MGB that's been converted.

I had been thinking of doing my own conversion as well, but found one that had already been converted, so I bought it for a really good price. The guy who converted it did an excellent job, the car is really solid. It's 96v with golf cart batteries and good quality components (9"ADC motor, Curtis controller, etc). I can even drive it on the freeway, though anything past 65 is pushing it. Higher voltage would help with that.

Right now, I'm debating whether to upgrade to 120V lithium for an approx 80 mile range, or just get a production EV when they show up. The MGB is nice for me, but it is a little small when it comes to passengers and cargo. Something like a Leaf would be much more practical.

Here's a link to some pictures:
http://www.diyelectriccar.com/garage/cars/221

[OKIsItJustMe]

36. Ooohhh I always wanted an MGB…

The worst thing about them (of course) was the notorious reliability of English sports cars. An electric power plant would address that complaint handily.

Beautiful.

[wtmusic]

18. Seconded.

My experience is very similar to yours.

When people bring up range anxiety, I ask them when the last time they ran out of gas was. They usually can't remember.

It takes is a trip or two where you're limping home at 10mph, but you start to think ahead. :D

[tinrobot]

26. Very true...

I've learned to read my voltmeter quite well. I do wish there were more charging stations that actually worked in this town (Los Angeles) Half of them are broken.

What's your car?

[wtmusic]

34. '97 Ford Aspire

http://www.aspire-ev.com

[tinrobot]

35. Nice car.

Seems like we have very similar drivetrains.

Also looks like we're neighbors as well. I live in Silverlake.

[wtmusic]

37. There used to be a shop in Silverlake

that did EV conversions. Are they still there?

I'm in Burbank and kinda miss that neighborhood - great restaurants (I used to live in Los Feliz).

[tinrobot]

38. There was a shop that did biodiesel conversions

Lovecraft Biodiesel, as I recall. They shut down last year.

If there's an EV conversion shop in the neighborhood, I'd love to find them.

I go to Burbank a lot, if I see your car, I'll wave...

[wtmusic]

39. .

:thumbsup:

[Strelnikov_]

40. Ghosn v Lutz? I think I will go with Ghosn

Liquid fuels price increase modest or large over the next ten years? I will go with Roland Emmerich massive.

Bottom line, IMHO, in 10-15 years most personal transport, being sold at that time, will be electric powered. With the coming energy contraction, the 4-5x more efficient EV's will be the only way personal transport can continue to exist.

[GreenPartyVoter]

41. Have you watched "Who Killed the Electric Car?" (link inside)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39K36Rw7LYc

It may also be available on NetFlix.