Chernobyl nuclear accident: figures for deaths and cancers still in dispute

[bananas]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/10/chernobyl-nuclear-deaths-cancers-dispute

Chernobyl nuclear accident: figures for deaths and cancers still in dispute

• Suspected infant mortality rise difficult to prove
• Predicted deaths range from 4,000 to half a million

* John Vidal, environment editor
* guardian.co.uk, Sunday 10 January 2010 18.15 GMT

At the children's cancer hospital in Minsk, Belarus, and at the Vilne hospital for radiological protection in the east of Ukraine, specialist doctors are in no doubt they are seeing highly unusual rates of cancers, mutations and blood diseases linked to the Chernobyl nuclear accident 24 years ago.

But proving that infant mortality hundreds of miles from the stricken nuclear plant has increased 20-30% in 20 years, or that the many young people suffering from genetic disorders, internal organ deformities and thyroid cancers are the victims of the world's greatest release of radioactivity, is impossible.

The UN's World Health Organisation and the International Atomic Energy Agency claim that only 56 people have died as a direct result of the radiation released at Chernobyl and that about 4,000 will die from it eventually.

They also say that only a few children have died of cancers since the accident and, that most of the illnesses usually linked to Chernobyl are due to psychological distress, radiophobia or poverty and unhealthy living.

But other reputable scientists researching the most radiation-contaminated areas of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are not convinced. The International Agency for Research on Cancer, another UN agency, predicts 16,000 deaths from Chernobyl; an assessment by the Russian academy of sciences says there have been 60,000 deaths so far in Russia and an estimated 140,000 in Ukraine and Belarus.

Meanwhile, the Belarus national academy of sciences estimates 93,000 deaths so far and 270,000 cancers, and the Ukrainian national commission for radiation protection calculates 500,000 deaths so far.

The mismatches in figures arise because there have been no comprehensive, co-ordinated studies of the health consequences of the accident. This is in contrast to Nagasaki and Hiroshima, where official research showed that the main rise in most types of cancer and non-cancer diseases only became apparent years after the atomic bombs fell.

<snip>

[NNadir]

1. "Other" "reputable" "scientists?"

The UNSCEAR report contains many thousands of references, albeit not to cute newspaper articles written by illiterate reporters who hear what they want to hear.

Wouldn't it be appropriate to at least identify the so called "reputable scientists?"

No?

Why not?

Even if this garbage report were true, and it's not, by the way, and the city of Kiev were actually wiped out by Chernobyl, it still wouldn't represent a fraction of the number of people who die every damn year from dangerous fossil fuel waste, aka air pollution.

The World Health Organization routinely reports deaths from air pollution, and all one needs to do to find out what they are is to give a rat's ass.

[kristopher]

2. More of your stellar research, eh?

International Agency for Research on Cancer

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) is part of the World Health Organization.

IARC's mission is to coordinate and conduct research on the causes of human cancer, the mechanisms of carcinogenesis, and to develop scientific strategies for cancer prevention and control. The Agency is involved in both epidemiological and laboratory research and disseminates scientific information through publications, meetings, courses, and fellowships.
http://www.iarc.fr/

Leads to:

ARCH (Agenda for Research on Chernobyl Health) is a European Commission FP7 Project to develop a strategic research agenda for the health consequences of the Chernobyl accident.
http://arch.iarc.fr/index.php

This page links to a "list of useful references":

http://arch.iarc.fr/references/index.php

Kesminiene A, Evrard AS, Ivanov K, Malakhova IV, Kurtinaitis J, Stengrevics A, Tekkel M, Anspaugh LR, Bouville A, Chekin S, ChumakVV, Drozdovitch V, Gapanovich V, Golovanov I, Hubert P, Illichev SV, Khait SE, Kryuchkov VP, Maceika E, Maksyoutov M, Mirkhaidarov AK, Polyakov S, Shchukina N, Tenet V, Tserakhovich TI, Tsykalo A, Tukov AR and Cardis E. Risk of Hematological Malignancies among Chernobyl Liquidators. Radiation Research, 2008; 170, 721-735

Romanenko A Ye, Finch SC, Hatch M, Lubin JH, Bebeshko VG, Bazyka DA, Gudzenko N, Dyagil IS, Reiss RF, Bouville A, Chumak VV, Trotsiuk NK, Babkina NG, Belyayev Yu, Masnyk I, Ron E, Howe GR, Zablotska LB. The Ukrainian-American Study of Leukemia and Related Disorders among Chornobyl Cleanup Workers from Ukraine: III. Radiation Risks. Radiation Research, 2008; 170,. 711–720

Zablotska LB, Bogdanova TI, Ron E, Epstein OV, Robbins J, Likhtarev IA, Hatch M, Markov VV, Bouville AC, Olijnyk VA, McConnell RJ, Shpak VM, Brenner A, Terekhova GN, Greenebaum E, Tereshchenko VP, Fink DJ, Brill AB, Zamotayeva GA, Masnyk IJ, Howe GR, Tronko MD. A cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the Chornobyl accident: dose-response analysis of thyroid follicular adenomas detected during first screening in Ukraine (1998-2000). Am J Epidemiol. 2008 Feb 1;167(3):305-12.

Baverstock K, Williams D.The Chernobyl accident 20 years on: an assessment of the health consequences and the international response. Cien Saude Colet. 2007 May-Jun;12(3):689-98.

Worgul B.V., Kundiyev Y. I., Sergiyenko N. M., Chumak V. V., Vitte P. M., Medvedovsky C., Bakhanova E. V., Junk A. K., Kyrychenko O. Y., Musijachenko N. V., Shylo S. A., Vitte O. P., Xu S., Xue X., and Shore R. E. Cataracts among Chernobyl Clean-up Workers: Implications Regarding Permissible Eye Exposures. Radiation Research, 2007; 167: 233–243.

Cardis E., Krewski D., Boniol M., Drozdovitch V., Darby SC., Gilbert ES., Akiba S., Benichou J., Ferlay J., Gandini S., Hill C., Howe G., Kesminiene A., Moser M., Sanchez M., Storm H., Voisin L. & Boyle P. Estimates of the Cancer Burden in Europe from Radioactive Fallout from the Chernobyl Accident. International Journal of Cancer. Int J Cancer. 2006 Sep 15;119(6):1224-35.

Cardis E., Howe G., Ron E., Balonov M., Bebeshko V., Buglova E., Bogdanova T., Bouville A., Carr Z., Chumak V., Davis S., Demidchik Y., Drozdovitch V., Gentner N., Gudzenko N., Hatch M., Ivanov V., Jacob P., Kapitonova E., Kenigsberg J, Kesminiene A., Kopecky K., Kryuchkov V., Likhtarev I., Loos A., Pinchera A., Reiners C., Repacholi M., Shibata Y., Shore R., Thomas G., Tirmarche M., Wachholz B., Yamashita S., Zvonova I. Cancer Consequences Of The Chernobyl Accident: 20 Years After. Journal of Radiological Protection. Journal of Radiological Protection. 2006; 26(2):127-40

UN Chernobyl Forum. Health Effects of the Chernobyl Accident and Special Health Care Programmes. Report of the UN Chernobyl Forum expert group "Health" (EGH). Geneva: World Health Organisation; 2006.

Fairlie I, Sumner D. The Other Report on Chernobyl (TORCH) http://www.greens-efa.org/cms/topics/dokbin/118/[e-mail]; 2006.

Greenpeace. The Chernobyl Catastrophe Consequences on Human Health. Amsterdam: Greenpeace; 2006.
top

Tronko MD, Howe GR, Bogdanova TI, Bouville AC, Epstein OV, Brill AB, Likhtarev IA, Fink DJ, Markov VV, Greenebaum E, Olijnyk VA, Masnyk IJ, Shpak VM, McConnell RJ, Tereshchenko VP, Robbins J, Zvinchuk OV, Zablotska LB, Hatch M, Luckyanov NK, Ron E, Thomas TL, Voilleque PG, Beebe GW. A cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the Chornobyl accident: thyroid cancer in Ukraine detected during first screening. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2006 Jul 5;98(13):897-903.

Jacob P, Bogdanova T I, Buglova E, Chepurniy M, Demidchik Y, Gavrilin Y, Kenigsberg J, Meckbach R, Schotola C, Shinkarev S, Tronko M D, Ulanovsky A, Vavilov S, and Walsh L. Thyroid cancer risk in areas of Ukraine and Belarus affected by the chernobyl accident, Radiat Res 2006; 165 1-8

Baverstock K, Williams D. TheChernobyl accident 20 years on: an assessment of the health consequences and the international response.Environ Health Perspect. 2006 Sep;114(9):1312-7.
top

Pukkala E, Kesminiene A, Poliakov S, Ryzhov A, Drozdovich V , Kovgan L, Kyyrönen P, Malakhova I, Gulak L and Cardis E. Breast cancer in Belarus and Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident. International Journal of Cancer. Int J Cancer. 2006 Aug 1;119(3):651-8.

Cardis E, Kesminiene A, Ivanov V, Malakhova I, Shibata Y, Khrouch V, Drozdovitch V, Maceika E, Zvonova I, Vlasov O, Bouville A, Goulko G, Hoshi M, Abrosimov A, Anoshko YA, Astakhova L, Chekin S, Demidchik E, Galanti R, Ito M, Korobova E, Lushnikov E, Maksiutov M, Masyakin V, Nerovnia A, Parshin V, Piliptsevich N, Pinchera A, Polyakov S, Shabeka N, Suonio E, Tenet V, Tsyb A, Yamashita S, Williams D. Risk of thyroid cancer following 131I exposure in childhood. Journal of the National Cancer Institute. 2005;97(10): 724-732.

Dubrova YE, Grant G, Chumak AA, Stezhka VA, Karakasian AN. Elevated minisatellite mutation rate in the post-chernobyl families from ukraine. Am J Hum Genet 2002; 71:801-9.

Astakhova L N, Anspaugh L R, Beebe G W, Bouville A, Drozdovitch V V, Garber V, Gavrilin Y I, Khrouch V T, Kuvshinnikov A V, Kuzmenkov Y N, Minenko V P, Moschik K V, Nalivko A S, Robbins J, Shemiakina E V, Shinkarev S, Tochitskaya S I, and Waclawiw M A Chernobyl-related thyroid cancer in children of Belarus: a case-control study, Radiat Res 1998; 150 349-356

Russian academy of sciences -

Chapter II. Consequences of the Chernobyl Catastrophe for Public Health
Alexey B. Nesterenko a , Vassily B. Nesterenko a ,† and Alexey V. Yablokov b
a Institute of Radiation Safety (BELRAD), Minsk, Belarus b Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Address for correspondence: Alexey V. Yablokov, Russian Academy of Sciences, Leninsky Prospect 33, Office 319, 119071 Moscow, Russia. Voice: [phone]; fax: [phone]. [e-mail]

Abstract
Problems complicating a full assessment of the effects from Chernobyl included official secrecy and falsification of medical records by the USSR for the first 3.5 years after the catastrophe and the lack of reliable medical statistics in Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia. Official data concerning the thousands of cleanup workers (Chernobyl liquidators) who worked to control the emissions are especially difficult to reconstruct. Using criteria demanded by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the World Health Organization (WHO), and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) resulted in marked underestimates of the number of fatalities and the extent and degree of sickness among those exposed to radioactive fallout from Chernobyl. Data on exposures were absent or grossly inadequate, while mounting indications of adverse effects became more and more apparent. Using objective information collected by scientists in the affected areas—comparisons of morbidity and mortality in territories characterized by identical physiography, demography, and economy, which differed only in the levels and spectra of radioactive contamination—revealed significant abnormalities associated with irradiation, unrelated to age or sex (e.g., stable chromosomal aberrations), as well as other genetic and nongenetic pathologies.

In all cases when comparing the territories heavily contaminated by Chernobyl's radionuclides with less contaminated areas that are characterized by a similar economy, demography, and environment, there is a marked increase in general morbidity in the former. Increased numbers of sick and weak newborns were found in the heavily contaminated territories in Belarus, Ukraine, and European Russia.

Accelerated aging is one of the well-known consequences of exposure to ionizing radiation. This phenomenon is apparent to a greater or lesser degree in all of the populations contaminated by the Chernobyl radionuclides.

This section describes the spectrum and the scale of the nonmalignant diseases that have been found among exposed populations. Adverse effects as a result of Chernobyl irradiation have been found in every group that has been studied. Brain damage has been found in individuals directly exposed—liquidators and those living in the contaminated territories, as well as in their offspring. Premature cataracts; tooth and mouth abnormalities; and blood, lymphatic, heart, lung, gastrointestinal, urologic, bone, and skin diseases afflict and impair people, young and old alike. Endocrine dysfunction, particularly thyroid disease, is far more common than might be expected, with some 1,000 cases of thyroid dysfunction for every case of thyroid cancer, a marked increase after the catastrophe. There are genetic damage and birth defects especially in children of liquidators and in children born in areas with high levels of radioisotope contamination. Immunological abnormalities and increases in viral, bacterial, and parasitic diseases are rife among individuals in the heavily contaminated areas. For more than 20 years, overall morbidity has remained high in those exposed to the irradiation released by Chernobyl. One cannot give credence to the explanation that these numbers are due solely to socioeconomic factors. The negative health consequences of the catastrophe are amply documented in this chapter and concern millions of people.

The most recent forecast by international agencies predicted there would be between 9,000 and 28,000 fatal cancers between 1986 and 2056, obviously underestimating the risk factors and the collective doses. On the basis of I-131 and Cs-137 radioisotope doses to which populations were exposed and a comparison of cancer mortality in the heavily and the less contaminated territories and pre- and post-Chernobyl cancer levels, a more realistic figure is 212,000 to 245,000 deaths in Europe and 19,000 in the rest of the world. High levels of Te-132, Ru-103, Ru-106, and Cs-134 persisted months after the Chernobyl catastrophe and the continuing radiation from Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu, and Am will generate new neoplasms for hundreds of years.

A detailed study reveals that 3.8–4.0% of all deaths in the contaminated territories of Ukraine and Russia from 1990 to 2004 were caused by the Chernobyl catastrophe. The lack of evidence of increased mortality in other affected countries is not proof of the absence of effects from the radioactive fallout. Since 1990, mortality among liquidators has exceeded the mortality rate in corresponding population groups. From 112,000 to 125,000 liquidators died before 2005—that is, some 15% of the 830,000 members of the Chernobyl cleanup teams. The calculations suggest that the Chernobyl catastrophe has already killed several hundred thousand human beings in a population of several hundred million that was unfortunate enough to live in territories affected by the fallout. The number of Chernobyl victims will continue to grow over many future generations.

Now, that took about 3 minutes with google. Perhaps you could trouble yourself to look into the other two sources cited.

Belarus national academy of sciences

Ukrainian national commission for radiation protection

[madokie]

4. Not all air pollution comes from coal plants or automobile exhausts

come on big guy show us some of your peer reviewed work, don't have any, why am I not surprised. I call you a fraud, hows that.

[kristopher]

3. kick