Disappearing options…what happens to long-term policy options if mid-term emissions targets are not…

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http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2010/01/disappearing-options

Disappearing options

11 January 2010

A new study quantifies for the first time what happens to long-term policy options if mid-term emissions targets are not met.

Correction appended

By Douglas Fischer
Daily Climate editor

BOULDER, Colo. – Turns out climate policy has some tipping points.

Failure to set and meet strict targets for greenhouse gas emissions cuts over the next 40 years could put long-term goals – such as limiting planetary warming to 2ºC by 2100 – permanently out of reach.

That's the conclusion of one of the first analyses to explore the relationships among energy use, mid-century targets and long-term policy options, published Monday by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The study establishes the notion of "feasibility frontiers," the point at which end-of-century goals become unobtainable or increasingly unlikely unless specific mid-century benchmarks are met.

The study also for the first time establishes odds of hitting specific long-term targets. If energy demand remains high, for instance, it finds that even if the world's governments manage to cut global emissions in half by 2050 and then do everything possible to limit emissions from 2050 on, society has only even odds of limiting global temperature increases to 2°, a goal noted in the recent Copenhagen Accord.

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