Rooftop Solar Installations Growing Faster than Utility-Scale Solar

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://cleantechnica.com/2010/01/10/rooftop-solar-installations-growing-faster-than-utility-scale-solar/

Rooftop Solar Installations Growing Faster than Utility-Scale Solar

Written by Susan Kraemer
Published on January 10th, 2010

Private solar installations are really taking off nationwide. In just two years, (about the same length of time it takes to get a pair of 250 MW solar power plants approved in California, for example), homeowners and businesses have added that much power to the Californian grid, just from individual rooftops throughout the state.

By July last year, 50,000 installations were supplying the California grid with 500 MW of solar power; the equivalent of two average sized solar power plants now under review in the state.

Nearly all solar installations are now grid -connected in California, by contrast with the first wave of solar power in the 70’s when a battery was needed to supply power at night, and early adopters had to be careful not to exceed their power, turning off dishwashers on cloudy days.

Now however, nearly all solar is grid-connected, meaning that the power generated is stored in a giant battery: the grid. Output is measured as it enters the grid, by the utility, which gives a credit for the electricity generated.

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[fascisthunter]

1. here's a kick (nt)

[silverweb]

2. K&R

:kick:

[tinrobot]

3. Solar is getting cheap...

I just ran across a place selling raw solar panels for under $2/watt. With rebates and tax credits, the costs are getting very affordable. In sunny places, it will soon be cheaper to install solar than buy electricity from the power company.

[kristopher]

4. ++++!

[ProgressiveProfessor]

5. Errr, not quite

Grid tie is working for now, mostly due to rebates and incentives. If its to be cheaper than the power company amortize the costs of ALL of the ground equipment, maintenance, and repairs and then check you math. Power cell or break throughs in batter tech may change the math. Panasonic had both onhttp://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=mydu display at CES.

I have a grid system sized to 105% of demonstrated demand. A bit high by industry standards, but it works for me. If/when they start paying for the extra power, I can easily double its size.



There has been a lot of press lately about low cost panels...don't believe it. Those are mostly Chinese panels from companies that have been in the business a short time. Its better to buy the slightly higher costing panels from makers who have been in the field for some time and will stand behind their gear. I have had one panel fail. Replaced for free by both the maker and the installer. Other neighbors have not been nearly so fortunate with the new lower cost panels from new names in the field.

[GreenPartyVoter]

6. Thanks for that info. Good to hear from someone who has a system and

can share their experiences. :)

[kristopher]

7. You recommend buying old technology at a higher price?

Not to mention the appeal to antiChinese sentiment.

There is some merit to considering the stability of a company, but I'd argue that the old timers are much more likely to be the ones who are not around to service their customers. After all, they are selling obsolete tech at a price that is many multiples of state-of-the-art; and they are not fairing very well lately. According to what I've been hearing we are in the midst of an industry shake out that isn't going well for most of the companies that have a history in the business.

I'm guessing you are still listening to vinyl?

[ProgressiveProfessor]

10. Actually the "new" panels are the same tech as the existing ones done cheaply and poorly

They are not new in anyway but company name. Its not particularly anti-Chinese to point out that the majority are from China and they though they run ~10% cheaper that established manufacturers, in the end they are no bargain. I expect leading brands like Sanyo, Panasonic etc, who have been leading suppliers and developers of solar tech will be in business long after the new quick buck companies have failed.

There are both some emerging technology solutions as well as evolutionary improvements in solar panels themselves. Some will pan out and the market will move to them, others will be little more than press releases. I expect to see changes in what is available in 5 years, but no massive jump in the basic technology. Also remember that there is more to the system than just panels. Inverters, supports, cutoffs, wiring are all required and not free. Its also not a DIY friendly technology at this time, though hopefully that will change.

The false claims and wild statements are as bad in alternative energy as they are in alternative medicine. Treat the hype with a grain of salt and checkout what the small installers are doing. They are the best bell weather for what is working in and on peoples homes.

Back to the economics...In SoCal right now, its basically a break even without the rebates and subsidies for grid tie. Amortize initial price + repairs/maintenance over the 20 year life of the system, and you break even (notionally). Rebates etc are about 40 percent of installation price, some in rebates, some as tax credits so its true value varies somewhat. That assumes constant dollars (no change in power cost etc) which is silly but makes for a good basis for comparison. Standalone (battery) is about 25-35% more. The market expectation is that solar system prices will remain about constant while the price of utility power grows. Take into account inflation, cost growth etc, solar will be getting *relatively* but not dramatically. Most new installations expect an 8-10 year payback, which I think is reasonable.

If anyone is interested in going solar, talk to several smaller installers, and one of the big guys. See what they would propose. Also talk to an owner or two in your area. If a home has Photo voltaic panels, most likely the owner will be glad to discuss it with a neighbor also interested in going solar. Good way to get contractor referrals as well.

Final word is to really be skeptical about the hype. The market is hungry for more and better systems. Ones that work will get the support and the distribution they deserve. The frauds will be known as well. The web here is your friend

So to answer your question, while as any knowledgeable person knows, analog vinyl has features that digital music does not, I have mostly digital music. I did see some new turntable options at CES last week, but they are well beyond my wallet.

My question to you is if you still have those special magnets around the fuel lines in your car and if still believe that they make a major difference in your mileage.

[kristopher]

13. Thin film solar is taking over the market.

And the installation technologies are maturing rapidly. Solyndra is an example of a company that has married thin film technology with innovations in panel design and installation that place them head and shoulders above the traditional technologies. Their entire output for the next three years is already committed.

Plug and play DIY panels just hit the shelves at Lowes in California.

FWIW I'm a renewable energy policy/carbon management analyst.

[joshcryer]

15. You gotta be careful though, some chained thin film panels cease operation if one cell is covered.

So a tree branch over just one cell on those types of panels can ruin your power input.

Of course, anyone looking in to solar should do their research and I in principle agree with you about buying Chinese solar panels.

[kristopher]

16. That isn't related to thin fil technology.

It's basic system design.

[joshcryer]

14. The Chinese PV panels are "old technology."

They're simple low efficiency panels. That's fine though as it does give you a better chance of having good reliability. If anything that might break I'd call it the interconnects rather than the panel substrate itself (assuming no obvious accidents, of course). So I see nothing wrong with doing your research beforehand.

Reliability will get better. You can buy Chinese panels on eBay for around $3 a watt. They're cheaper if you go to specialty online stores. I've seen them for as low as $2.50 a watt. So once it's down to a buck a watt even an "unreliable" panel that lasts 3-4 years will pay for itself on par (I calculated a panel at $1/watt would pay for itself in 4 years assuming 6 hours a day of electrical utilization and 7 cents per kwh grid power, I may have screwed up the math).

The "name brand" stuff is around $3.50 a watt but they don't make them smaller than 50 watts from what I can tell.

[TxRider]

8. Don't hold your breath

The utilities are getting pretty smart about not paying for power from residential solar these days. Not retail prices anyway.

Can't blame them, they can't very well pay a retail rate for consumer solar and sell it at the same rate. Doesn't pay for infrastructure upkeep etc.

Here they give you credit at some low rate.

[kristopher]

9. Screw the utilities.

They are quasi-public entities, licensed with the stipulation that they are there to serve the public interest. We are better off regulating these enterprise because providing electric services is a natural monopoly.

What is called for within 5 years is a feed-in tariff for rooftop solar that is set at around $0.15/kwh.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

11. Here is CA is watt for watt, measured over a year. However any excess above your usage is a

donation. Most installers aim for 90-95% based on the utility bills for the last 2-3 years.

From my perspective if I got paid for what I make over what I use, its gravy, whatever the rate. Should that change be made I would also be able to do analysis to see if it would be worth it to add on. I live in one of the best solar areas in the US.

[joshcryer]

17. You don't have equal rates to the utilities? That's bogus!

That sucks for you guys, that needs to be mandated. If the utility is paying such and such per kilowatt then you should get that if you produce energy and don't use it.

It's unlikely a rooftop install is ever going to produce more electricity than you use, so I don't see why they wouldn't go for it.

[kristopher]

18. It is bogus

Especially since the power provided by solar is produced during peak demand and is much more valuable than offpeak power.

IIRC however, there are few states that mandate utilities accommodate rooftop residential systems fairly.

[madokie]

12. I'd do it in a heartbeat

if my health gave me reason to think I might live long enough for a system to pay off