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bhikkhu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 11:27 AM
Original message
"Oil Demand has Peaked in Developed World: IEA"
"Oil use in rich industrialized countries will never return to 2006 and 2007 levels because of more fuel efficiency and the use of alternatives, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.

The bold prediction, while made previously by some analysts, is significant because the IEA advises 28 countries on energy policy and its oil demand forecasts are closely watched by traders and policymakers.

"When we look at the OECD countries -- the U.S., Europe and Japan -- I think the level of demand that we have seen in 2006 and 2007, we will never see again," Fatih Birol told Reuters in a telephone interview."

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60R5R720100128

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I don't know if anyone here has followed the projections for the past few years, but in context this one is a pretty serious about-face. Basically it makes peak oil a moot point for much of the world, only leaving to question how and whether the "developing world" will in the end industrialize or not.
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hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 11:58 AM
Response to Original message
1. Well then, that explains it...
:rofl:

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bananas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 11:58 AM
Response to Original message
2. Joe Romm at Climate Progress is being proven right again
"Joe Romm predicts US CO2 emissions will never exceed 2007 levels"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x195741

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NickB79 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 02:53 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. Well, he based his prediction on two things: Peak Oil and legislation
From your link:

"Yes, the EIA itself, which is incredibly conservative from a forecasting perspective, doesn’t foresee CO2 emissions returning to 2007 levels until 2024! But, of course, that post-2020 return to steadily rising emissions is exceedingly unlikely to happen — thanks to peak oil and action by President Obama and Congress on energy and climate legislation."

How's that climate legislation coming along, especially in consideration of Copenhagen and Pres. Obama's calls for "clean" coal and offshore oil drilling?
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tom_paine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 12:32 PM
Response to Original message
3. If it never rises that high again, it is because Feudalism allots much less energy usage to Serfs
That is the implication that is of course unspoken here, even if I was to believe it.

Restructuring the world to a pre-1776 condition in terms of the relationship of the bottom 99.5% to the top 0.5% would indeed save energy.

And that is what has been going on and now it's snowballing, moving ever faster in lockstep with the most modern techniques of marketing, advertising and PR to confuse and pacify the bottom 99.5% until it's too late, in which case the mask of our NeoFeudal Corporate Masters will come off so fast it will make your head spin, probably after another 9/11-type shock to "clear the old programming", or the rotting remnants of it, depending on which angle one views it all from.

Yep, those medieval peasants didn't use a whole lot of energy. Neither will those same peasants, our decendants, 100 years from now.

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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. I wish it did look like a return to Feudalism....
Propaganda over the last 500 years have constantly pointed out that it is better "today" then back in the bad old days of "Feudalism". The problem is that is only true that 10% of the population that made up (and still makes up) what is called the "Middle Class" in Europe, or what we Americans call the "Upper Middle Class" for we Americans throw in Working Class in with the Upper Middle Class when we use the term "Middle Class".

For the other 85-88% of the population (About 2 % are the super rich, i.e. Nobility of Old, now the Billionaires) except for the years since WWII, most were better off under Feudalism then afterward. When the Roman Empire in the West Fell in the 400s, it was replaced by a series of States that consistent of two Nations. The larger of the two called themselves "Romans" for centuries after the fall of the Empire. These included people in what is now France, Spain, as while as Italy (and other parts of Europe, such as Greece and Romania). Roman Law applied to them.

The other "Nation" was the Germanic tribe that moved into that part of the Former Empire. Their Traditional tribal law applied to them. Remains of this divide in law lasted till the Renaissance where Roman law prevailed in most of Europe (Becoming todays "Civil Law" used in most of the World today).

Thus in the "Dark ages" from about 450 AD till about 1000 AD, these two "nations" coexistent through out Europe. The Catholic Church was the one unifying institution and do to this fact both the Germanic Tribes and the Roman people looked to the Church to resolved any disputes between the two sets of Nations. The Church existed this power by mediating between the Romans and the Germans AND between the emerging post Roman Empire Germanic States.

Now one of the Characteristic of the Post Roman State of Europe during the Dark Ages was that as the Empire collapsed, the Roman ruling elite invited in the Germanic Tribes to control the Peasants. People tend to forget that except for the Vandals every invading tribe was defeated by the Romans in the 400s and then settled in areas where the Romans had massive peasant revolts. Yes, the invaders were NOT driven out by invited to stay provided they protected the Roman ruling elite claims to the wealth of the lands ruled by both nations. A problem arose in this situation that the Catholic Church had to constantly mediate. The problem was the Germanic Tribes had more in common with the Roman Peasant then the Roman Elite and sooner or later the Germanic tribe adopted some sort of land reform to help out the peasants. The Roman Elite hated these reforms and did, as these land reforms became more common in the 500s, something they had refused to do in the 400s, permit taxes to be raised on the Roman Elite to pay for troops needed by the Empire (By the 500s we are talking of the Eastern Empire only) to undo these land reforms. Thus in the 530s you had the Eastern Empire under Justinian invading first North Africa and Carthage and then Italy to undo the land reforms of the Vandals in what is now Tunisia and the Reforms the Goths had started in Italy at the same time. These wars were the bloodiest wars since the Punic Wars. The City of Rome itself fell five times to invading armies in the early 500s (Three times to Roman Forces from the Eastern Empire, twice to Gothic Forces fighting those Roman Forces). The Peasants backed the Goths, for their titles to their land was Gothic in origin (i.e. The Roman Empire did not recognize them).

On the other hand both the Goths and Romans were Catholic by this time (the 500s) and thus the Catholic Church was caught in the middle. Now this was NOT as bad as it sounds, for even the Goths recognized that they were ruling over Italy as agents of the Roman Empire. The dispute was NOT that Italy should be part of the Roman Empire (Both sides accepted that as fact) but how much rights should the Goths get for having ruled Italy since 450 AD (The last Roman Emperor in the West did not fall from office till 476, but after 450 the real ruler of Italy was the Head of the Gothic Troops in the Western Imperial Army, in 476 the Head decided it was better to be sub-servant to the Emperor in Constantinople, for he was to far away to cause any problems in Italy, then to be sub-servant to a Roman Emperor in Italy, even if you had him under lock and key, thus the fall of the Empire in 450 when the Goths took over Italy as head of the Imperial Army AND the Vandals took Carthage which destroyed the east-west trade routes).

In 570, after the end of the Italian Wars, Italy was invaded by the Lombards. The Eastern Empire was busy with a war with Persia AND an attack on Constantinople by the Avars, thus Italy was left open to an Lombard Invasion. Within a couple of Generations the Lombards were Catholic and into land reforms. While Technically the Catholic Church at that time period was under the authority of the Eastern Emperor and the Pope supported the claims of the Eastern Empire in Western Europe, his priest assisted the Lombards (and the Franks in what is now France) to divide up the land among the Lombards (In Italy), the Goths (In Spain) and the Franks (In France). Now the system adopted was a radical variation of the late Roman Empire land System. As in the late Roman Empire Land System you had lords that ruled the manors and "owned" them, as that term was understood at that time. The change was that "Owning" land was defined differently by the Germanic tribes then the Roman Elites. As time went on the Church come more and more to prefer the definition of the Germanic tribes over that of the Roman Elites and slowly the Germanic Tribe definition took hold.

Now, the resistance to this change was strong among the Roman Elites. Their definition is much likes today's definition, ownership is complete and total, you can exclude from your land anyone you want. The Germanic Tribe definition was different. Ownership was more like being made the commander of a Battalion in the Army, when such command not only included the command of the troops, but how those troops were treated in old age, how their family were looked after, and collecting the money to support such troops (Which after the fall of the Western Empire meant that commanding troops meant you had to own land to raise the food to feed and equip that army). The Roman Elite held on throughout the Rule of the Lombards and Charlemagne's empire of the 800s. The problem was at the end of the 800s two new invaders moved into Europe, the Magyars who moved into what is now Hungary and from that base attacked, by land, as far west as France AND the Vikings who attack via the Ocean and up all the major rivers of Europe. To end this, the Saxon Emperors of the Holy Roman Empire (founded in 900 AD) decided to adopt a policy from the Eastern Empire (which adopted in during the Persian Wars of the early 600s and the Arab conquest after the 630s). The "Owner" of any land had a duty to provide troops AND to protect the peasants on that land. If he failed to do so, the "Owner" lost his right to ownership and the Emperor could name someone as "Owner" who would defend the land and the peasants.

Now, as you can see the definition of "Ownership" has shifted complete by 900 AD. The complete ownership of Roman Law was forgotten. The new definition followed Germanic Law, i.e. the "Owner" was the "leader" of the peasants working the land NOT someone who just hired and fired them. Under this system peasants had rights, including the right to stay on the land provided they did all that was expected of them to the "Leader". The Church made sure this new system treated everyone fairly. To make sure everyone was on board this new system, both the Nobility (The "Leaders") and the Peasants had to attend the same mass (Thus both did something in common). Both parties would look to the priest as a mediator of any disputes (Given the Military nature of this system the Noble in charge of the land was also the Judge of any dispute so all the Church could do is mediate). Now, while this sounds rigid, remember this was a two way street during a time of huge demand for troops i.e. the Noble needed the peasants to supply him and his troops not only with food and other supplies but also troops. This was by far the biggest check on the Noble along with the right, claimed by the Church, that the Church never came under the jurisdiction of any Civil Court (This permitted the local priest a lot of power when it came mediation, all he has to say was any complaint about him had to be filed with the bishop NOT any Civil Court).

Now, there were problems with the above system. Most of those problems have been cited over the last 500 years by the Upper Middle Class as why Feudalism was bad (and this I will not repeat them here) but I am pointing out HOW the system in use during the hight of Feudalism came about. From about 800 AD Feudalism started a slow build (As I pointed out above going back to the 400s for some of its ancient roots) but took off after 900 in Germany (and thus why Germany had little impact from the Viking Invasions of the 900s) and as the 900s went on more and more of Europe adopted it (England had aspects of Feudalism as early as the time of Alfred the Great, but took full hold only after 1066 and the Conquest of England).

One of the reason I went through the above is to show that Feudalism, unlike Roman law, was based on a Military view of what a "Leader" does NOT a Business mans point of view (Which is more Roman law in Nature). As the "Owner" of the property you not only had right to the money from the estate you also had duties to the people who produced that money (the peasants). Under Feudalism, like military contracts today, neither party can get of of them anytime they want. Today's military Enlistment Contracts have set start and end dates (Stop loss in a separate category which I will NOT address here) but that was NOT true during Feudalism. Both sides viewed the system as permanent in nature i.e. the peasants had to do certain things the Noble wanted of him, but the Noble could NOT kick the peasant off the land, in fact could NOT even buy out the peasant UNLESS the peasant agreed (And such agreement had to be approved by the Church AND the Nobles superiors, if either objected no such agreement was legal).

Today, a person on the property of another falls into four categories, a trespasser, i.e. someone with no right on the property but on it anyway, an "Invitee" someone who is invited onto the property (For example people are "Invited" into stores by the store being open to customer coming into the store), a "Guest" which is someone who paid to be on the property OR someone who has some right to come onto the property independent of who owns the property. The last case in rare today for the Upper Middle Class hated it and did all it can to kill such rights over the last 500 or so years, but this was the biggest factor in Feudalism. Peasants on the land of Nobles were NOT Trespassers, invitees or Guests. Peasants had a legal right to be on the land INDEPENDENT of
who owned the land. In England this was called a "Copy-hold" as opposed to a "Freehold" but was a valid right to be on the land and the key to Feudalism. A peasant had the right to live on the land, if he paid whatever he had to by tradition to his "noble". Now most peasants under Feudalism were "Serfs" who were freemen to everyone BUT their master, just like a soldier is only responsible to his chain of Command and can disregard any older from any other chain of command as if he was not a soldier (i.e. a Soldier can not disobey a Police Officer for if the Soldier was NOT a Soldier, i.e. a Civilian, he would still have to obey the Police Officer).

I am writing this off the top of my head, which is NOT always a good thing but the point I am trying to make is that people had rights under Feudalism that did NOT exist under earlier Roman Law. With the reintroduction of Roman Law during the Renaissance these rights went into decline as more and more courts adopted the Roman view on Ownership and abandoned the view of ownership of land that was the heart of Feudalism. What we are looking forward to is NOT a return to Feudalism (That would give us to much rights) but the same expansion of Roman view of land ownership prevalent in the last Centuries of the Western Roman Empire (It seem to prevail till about 600 AD in the Eastern Empire, but then the Invasion of the Balkans by the Slavs in the 600s, the destructiveness of the last Roman-Persian War around 600 AD and the subsequent Arab conquest of the 600s forced the Eastern Empire to abandon the Roman concept of Land Ownership and to invent what we now call Feudalism (and that invention permitted the subsequent Byzantine Empire to not only survive but be a power in what in now the Middle East). The key to Feudalism was that peasants had rights even while the Nobility retained technical ownership of the land. The key to what we are facing is the late Roman Empire ownership system. The peasants have NO rights while the ruling elite have all the rights.

The Greek Part of the Eastern Empire retained the greatest amount of peasant owned property during the Roman Empire. The Western and Egyptian/Arab part of the Roman Empire had the least amount of peasant owned property (and this is the best explanation why the Greek Speaking part of the Roman Empire survived another 1000 years after the fall of the Empire in the West).

My point is we are NOT looking at Feudalism, that is to progressive a state of development. We are looking at the late Western Roman Empire, with the money elite controlling everything and even willing to bring in foreign mercenaries to maintain that money even if that means the fall of the whole country (i.e. the ruling elites prefer their money to anything else including they fellow countrymen).
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bhikkhu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 08:35 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. Conservation, efficiency, and alternative energy
...no need to invoke the dark ages to get us off foreign oil.

I'm trying to apply all three myself: I use as little as I can, shut off lights and keep the heater turned low, most of my appliances are the high efficiency ones, and I commute and run errands by bicycle rather than car. Its easy stuff and healthy, basically, and life is good. There's no boot on my neck.
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IrateCitizen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 12:36 PM
Response to Original message
4. Even if this is true, it is essentially meaningless...
The big question is, rather, what will happen to oil demand as more and more Chinese and Indians begin driving automobiles. A plateauing or even slight reduction in the industrialized north is meaningless in the face of this oncoming tsunami.
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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. No it isn't.
The developed countries lead the way in the technologies that developing countries adopt. It indicates they will largely leapfrog the degree of fossil fuel dependence based on infrastructure that has trapped us on that treadmill for so long.

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bhikkhu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 08:28 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Yes, it is a huge turning point
...assuming of course the prediction is correct. What is would mean, for one, is that the fuel for growth, from now on, will come from somewhere other than the Middle East. Most alternatives are available right here, in fact, and other than coal they are much cleaner.
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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 05:55 PM
Response to Original message
7. Score another one for Kristopher.
I am on a roll this week.
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stuntcat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 08:38 PM
Response to Original message
11. callin Bullshit
remember in five years that stuntcat called Bullshit on this.

Then if I'm wrong I'm wrong.. but I doubt it.
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bhikkhu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 10:12 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Good enough. Its hard to defend the IEA
they have a record of being very optimistic with their predictions in the other direction - as in not too long ago predicting growth way beyond what anyone else in the oil business thought was possible, and they've often been accused of "cooking the books" to come up with whatever numbers serve the market of the moment. This most recent is the opposite of what they usually do...but who knows.

I'd like to think we've turned the corner and alternatives will start to really kick in, but that doesn't mean it will happen.
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4dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-29-10 10:25 PM
Response to Original message
13. This will be offset by the Chinese
"That's, however, being offset by very strong ... markets of the East and particularly Chinese

The Chinese are trying to build a middle class that rivals the US and that means millions of more cars and trucks. The only viable fuel source to run them will be oil.

And I don't think technology or efficiencies had a much impact on our usage as demand destruction did and the lowering of real wages for the middle class over the past 30 years. Together with the massive debt the middle class in now bearing because they can no longer use their homes like a piggy bank will make them drive less for a long, long time..
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bhikkhu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-30-10 01:54 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. Yes, that's part of the projection
Chinese demand has continued to grow, while US demand has slipped since 2007.

I would very much keep to a "local" perspective about that, and we can't do much about China screwing up their own country in any case. It is a good thing for us if we finally wean off of middle east oil, looking at the succession of military fiascoes we've been involved in over there since the oil embargo, and at the portion of our massive military expenditures that protect our access to middle east oil. The sooner we move toward alternatives the better, and if there is some inconvenience now it will only lessen the impacts later.
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