World crude oil production may peak a decade earlier than some predict (2014)

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-03/acs-wco031010.php

Public release date: 10-Mar-2010

Contact: Michael Bernstein
[e-mail]
202-872-6042
http://www.acs.org/">American Chemical Society

World crude oil production may peak a decade earlier than some predict

In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil and intensify the search for alternative fuel sources, scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014 — almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS' Energy & Fuels, a bi-monthly journal.

Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil" — the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point, and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models, called the Hubbert model, accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970. The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide. However, recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes, politics, and other factors, the scientists say.

The new study describe development of a new version of the Hubbert model that accounts for these individual production trends to provide a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world's conventional crude oil. They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world's oil reserves are being depleted at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate, they suggest.

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ARTICLE FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE "Forecasting World Crude Oil Production Using Multicyclic Hubbert Model"

DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ARTICLE http://pubs.acs.org/stoken/presspac/presspac/full/10.1021/ef901240p

CONTACT:
Ibrahim Nashawi, Ph.D.
Department of Petroleum Engineering
College of Engineering and Petroleum
Kuwait University
Safat, Kuwait
Phone: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
Email: [e-mail]

So... Kuwaiti's say we might peak by 2014...

[Statistical]

1. It is coming.

Countries, and individuals who are prepared will prosper. Those who aren't will be crushed.

We still routinely get people on DU complaining gas is "almost $3.00 a gallon". Even here there is a belief that oil will always be available and always be cheap. US is far more vulnerable that other parts of world which pay substantially more for gasoline. As prices spike they can cut gas taxes to reduce effective price at pump. US likely will go into a 1970s style oil-shock.

[OKIsItJustMe]

2. 30 Years ago, John Anderson ran on a gas tax.

I was for it then. I'm still for it now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Anderson#1980_Presidential_campaign