Kuwaiti Scientists Say Peak Oil Will Arrive in 2014

[tinrobot]

New research out of Kuwait, using a new method of calculating the crude oil production potential of 47 of the world’s largest oil producing countries, has found that peak oil — the period in time when oil production reaches a maximum and then begins to decline — will come much sooner than expected… 2014 to be exact.

Peak oil is an important concept to fully understand in our modern world, given that we are so heavily dependent on petroleum products for everything from transportation to plastic. With the onset of peak oil, many expect that governments, economies, and cultures will start systematically collapsing as demand for crude oil overwhelms supply — unless we can do something to wean ourselves off of it before then.

Over the last few decades, much has been debated about peak oil and when it will come. However the majority of petroleum scientists in this area of research have consistently said that it will arrive some time past 2020, perhaps even as far away as 2050. Although 2050 sounds like some far off date, those 40 years may be just barely enough to reduce our petroleum dependence enough to avoid catastrophe. So, when scientists from one of the most oil rich nations on earth start saying that peak oil will come in 2014… it causes a bit of alarm.

The scientists’ new method for evaluating world peak oil timing stems from the well-tested, popular and generally accurate Hubbert method — which was the first model to accurately predict when oil supply would peak from United States oil fields in the 1970’s. However, the Hubbert model has been scrutinized as not accurately depicting individual, widely-varying, country-specific items such as changing technology and politics. To address these criticisms, the researchers modified the Hubbert model to calculate oil production trends that also include individual variations from country to country, and then applied it to the 47 largest oil producing countries in the world.

http://gas2.org/2010/03/10/kuwaiti-scientists-say-peak-oil-will-arrive-in-2014/

[BunkerHill24]

1. Of course peak oil is here. We need to get ready for 140$ a barrel

...or 4.25 a gallon in this year, no doubt.

[Javaman]

7. My thinking as well.

1 1/2 years ago was just he primer.

Notice that oil prices are now pretty much fixed at 80 bucks? That's the profit point of all the hard to find fossil fuels. If it goes lower than that, the EROEI fails.

So in order to keep the world humming on oil, they have to make the price per barrel at 80 bucks so they can keep the spigots open.

This is a little bit of odd thinking but I look at it this way: if the price of oil drops down to say 50 bucks, that will allow a better chance of oil prices increasing. Why? Because if the price falls, then people drive more, thus creating a demand and driving the price back up. But say oil prices go up to 100 bucks, then the price at the pump will be such that demand will drop. Thus allowing oil to drop below 80 bucks. Which happened in the summer of 08 and which then goes back to my first point. (Thus see-sawing of plateau)

Some bright light figured out that as long as the price hovers around 80 bucks, all the oil producing countries, oil companies and oil refineries will be happy. The price at the pump in the US maintains a 2.50 - 3.00 average. High, but not so high to justify things being cut back or stopped completely.

(A side note: that's low compared to Europe, but they aren't a car oriented culture like we are)

Even though it's been shown that the rise in oil to 150 bucks a barrel was based on speculation, I believe it had less to do with Wall Street than it did with a public test by oil producers in an effort to see how much pain at the pump the public could take and how they would react. It takes nothing for the people behind the scenes to create a "my dick is bigger than yours" type of frenzy buying on ripe commodities like oil to make the morons speculators drive up the price. I recall the guy that made the buy for the 150 barrel of oil stated something along the lines of ,"he just wanted to be the one to do it". Nothing like a false sense of bravado at the expense of the public.

(I believe, if there ever was a possibility of a "secret society" it lies within the oil industry, but that's for another post)

As always the poor will be the hardest hit, but the powers that be don't care about them. It's the middle class, the largest portion of the population {the part of the population that basically keeps society running) that they are concerned about. Because without the middle class, the rich know they are screwed. They don't mind treating us like crap, because the middle class is a passive aggressive bunch. We will get pretty beat up before we actually get off our collective asses to do anything.

However, it's when the price of gas gets so high that it cuts into the middle classes way of life (like the summer of 08) that the machinery (us) that runs society started to react. I think if the price at the pump continued at 4 bucks a gallon, things would have gotten really ugly. Don't get me wrong, they were getting ugly, but problems and issues were de-fused before it got out of hand. 5 bucks (national average) at the pump is a complete game changer across the board. The powers that be (via their little test) know this and are doing what they can to keep the price of oil at artificially low levels.

I have been saying for quite sometime now, if people want real change in this country, raise the price of a gallon of gas to at least 5 bucks a gallon.

We have had our civil liberties destroyed, our constitutional rights virtually eliminated, yet, were is the resounding out cry? Not to be heard. Instead we have moronic manufactured from whole cloth distraction via the tea baggers and their ilk, whining about birth certificates and other none topics artificially pimped to create a faux sense of controversy. That's what we as Americans have devolved to in order to have our voices heard, crazy or otherwise. Reals issue that matter are constantly thrown off course in order to keep people from thinking for themselves or understanding what is actually going on. We the people will rail about anything via our bright shiny object distracting media and will do it just long enough to change the discourse to something that can be controlled and manipulated.

We are facing a very hard future. One that many people, even those who are "prepared" aren't really prepared for.

I've written enough. LOL I could go on and on, but what's the point. I am a lower middle class guy, living in a "classless" society with no voice.

[zeaper]

11. Good

That means it will be economical to turn coal into gasoline. That is the next phase and it will make the US energy independent.

[Nihil]

12. Woohoo ... "the American way of life is not negotiable!"

I'm so glad that your inalienable right to drive was protected
by the 28th Amendment(*) ...



(*
"Section 1. The right of citizens of the United States, who are eighteen
years of age or older, to own & drive wasteful motor vehicles shall not be
denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of
common sense, environmental protection or the fact that the fuel is under
someone else's land.

Section 2. The Congress shall have the power to enforce this article by
appropriate legislation whenever prompted by the automobile or fossil fuel
industries.")

[NickB79]

13. Setting aside global warming, too bad US coal reserves aren't nearly as large as you believe

http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2009/05/13/2569143.htm

Peak Coal, mo-fo's!

[Javaman]

14. You really don't know what you are talking about, do you?

Way to throw out that narrowly thought out canard.

Step back and take a look at what you said, then think about this: there is no such thing as clean coal.

There are basically two types of coal. The dirty kind and the really dirty kind.

We have just about run out of the dirty kind, we are now digging deeply into the really dirty kind. And like sweet and sour crude: sweet burns "cleaner" and produces more things, the sour stuff, burns much dirtier and doesn't produce as many things, plus it's very high in sulfur content.

Same with coal.

Coal to gas conversion has been around for a long time and is very expensive.

Honestly believing that by burning coal will bring us "energy Independence" is to say, foolish. Coal, aside being extraordinarily filthy, is also a finite resource just like oil.

So what was that again about using coal for "energy Independence"?

You really need to do some, you know, research and stop embarrassing yourself.

Cheers! :)

[GliderGuider]

15. Hi there. I'm pretty sure I recognize you.

Enjoy your stay.

[Dogmudgeon]

2. We've been on the "bumpy plateau" since 2005

I'm sure there will be a few upticks along the way, but we need to be making changes post haste.

Car culture should be the first thing we jettison. Taking the next decade to shift our tax, subsidy, and planning priorities away from the automotive/gasoline economy will allow us to make a smooth transition with a minimum of disruption. I'm not too keen on electric cars per se, but an overall electricity-powered transportation system is the way to go. The actual mix of vehicle types is less important.

In the 1920s, the suburban vision looked like the way to go, but no one believed that our energy use would grow exponentially. We know better now. We need to be more future-oriented during the coming century. What was once "Gee Whiz!" has turned to "Oh, Shit!". (I'm not even sure that works for making compost.)

--d!

[Javaman]

5. Exactly right.

if anything by 2014, we will be on the start of the down slope.

I expect another run up in prices either this year or next. Then they will come back down again.

The see-sawing of prices over a period of time is classic example of plateau of anything.

Like I said to my wife last night, "your great grandchildren will be living like your great grand parents.

We have reached peak civilization as well. Because, like most of humanity through out time, we didn't prepare for the long term. We as a race of humans, like to think we prepare but preparing to us (the global us) is only thinking 5 years down the road.

We in essence live only in the today and be damned if we think or prepare for 50, 100 or 500 years ahead. And forget about learning from the past. We are constantly reminded of how things happened in the past and how we should use those same examples as a road map for our future, but do we ever? We are so pompous to believe that we do.

We have such a wealth of resources still at our disposal, but yet, rather than using them to blunt the complete impact of, not only, peak oil, but many other "peaks" that are rapidly approaching in other materials and resources, we choose instead to keep going alone as if nothing is happening.

We are a stunt plane coming out of a loop with not enough air and too much ground.

[Statistical]

6. " We have reached peak civilization as well."

While that is a possibility I don't think it is a foregone conclusion.

It may results in substantial decline in standards of livings, probably spark off a couple wars, and will cause a massive shakeup in governmental/financial/social systems.

I fear we may not make changes in time to avoid climate change but human race will eventually adapt to peak oil.

[Javaman]

8. I think I should clarify what I mean by peak civilization...

of course we will adapt, I have no doubt of that, but as far as growth is concerned, I believe we will begin the "grand shrinking" of the population.

What oil does provide, more than it's energy carrying ability is growth. I certainly can't say that something else won't come along that will create growth, but bang for the buck, nothing beats oil.

And as a result, our population will begin to shrink.

We are so completely interdependent upon oil, that just a drop of 5% from the global use will cause massive havoc.

Medicines will be in short supply, transportation will not be as reliable (not talking about cars), food transportation, etc, you know what I'm talking about.

We will eventually pick up the slack one way or another, but life on this planet will be massively different then from what is is now.

Perhaps, rather than saying "Peak Civilization" I should look upon it as a change in how we define civilization. It certainly won't be the same and will be driven by other factors, factors that we would be hard pressed to hazard a guess.

Perhaps, what I really meant was Peak Population.

[Statistical]

9. Well IMHO that is a good thing.

The reality is even excluding fossil fuels the planet has a limited carrying capacity.

As long as the human race is confined to this single planet human race population will be constrained.

It either will be constrained by self-control due to things like less "easy energy" or it will be constrained via warfare. Hundreds of millions (or billion) people dead in a global war pulls global population back from that carrying capacity limit and provides more room for "growth". The problem is that population growth isn't sustainable so as we end up in a growth-warfare cycle that is similar to boom and bust cycle of stock market.

[Javaman]

10. I concur. :)

cheers!

[bananas]

16. We reached peak civilization around 1972

How do you measure the extent of civilization?
One metric would be the distance it extends to.
We sent people to the moon on a regular basis from 1969-1972.
Another metric is the civility and humanity of the justice system.
The US death penalty was declared unconstitutional between 1972-1976.
So the peak was around 1972, plus or minus a few years.

[OKIsItJustMe]

3. See also

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=235290&mesg_id=235290

[Turbineguy]

4. No problem

since the world ends in 2012. There's a documentary about it. Besides, in 2013 we'll find out that Nostradamus predicted it.

Oh wait....

[bhikkhu]

17. Clicking through to the actual article...

its interesting, but I didn't see any real departures from the numerous other methods. I suppose the real departure is that an OPEC country is actually talking about peak oil at all.

The one thing I was looking for is the biggest "peak oil" news lately, that Iraq is planning to ramp up to 12 mbpd of production by 2015. In Kuwait's figures, they project an Iraqi peak of 8mbpd a few years farther out - so still a good bump, but perhaps more realistic in timing and quantity.