Coming soon: "oil-less" economic growth

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-46961420100317

Coming soon: "oil-less" economic growth

Wed Mar 17, 2010 9:00am IST

By Christopher Johnson

LONDON (Reuters) - The world may soon achieve something long dreamed of by governments and policymakers: higher economic growth without using more oil.

Rising efficiency, conservation and substitution are steadily reducing the amount of oil needed to fuel an increase in the goods and services produced around the world.

Oil demand in the rich, industrialised countries of the West already appears to have peaked and the trend in developing economies is toward an ever-smaller increase in the amount of oil consumed for every extra unit of economic growth.

Global oil intensity -- oil demand growth divided by economic growth -- has fallen by about 2 percent a year over the last decade and the decline is now accelerating, spurred by high oil prices, moves to alternative fuels and measures to curb global warming.

...

[NickB79]

1. Uh huh......

http://moneymorning.com/2010/03/18/oil-prices-15/

"China will account for almost a third of global oil demand growth this year it predicts, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Noting that China's apparent demand for crude surged by an "astonishing" 28% year-over-year in January alone, the EIA for the second time this year has revised its global forecast upwards by 70,000 bpd to 86.6 million bpd. That would be a 1.8% increase from 2009 levels.

According to the EIA, "this year's global oil demand growth will be driven entirely by non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, with non-OECD Asia alone representing over half the growth."

The agency raised its 2010 demand forecast for China by 130,000 barrels per day to 9 million bpd, representing an increase of 6.2% from 2009.

Additionally, signs are beginning to emerge that demand in the United States - the world's largest oil consumer - is getting back on track. "


While I truly hope what Reuters reported comes to pass, I won't be holding my breath for it.

[OKIsItJustMe]

2. The two aren't necessarily contradictory

(The Reuters story regards oil intensity.)

[NickB79]

3. Indeed. It reminds me of China's pledge to reduce their carbon intensity at Copenhagen

Increasing efficiency, but overall their carbon emissions will still increase over time. As such, it only postpones the worst of global warming a few years.

Similarly, focusing on oil intensity shows how you can use oil more efficiently, but oil demand still rises overall. As such, it only postpones the worst of Peak Oil a few years.

Can you tell I'm not a fan of measuring things like this by their intensity?

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. I sympathize

However, the way I look at it is decreasing (carbon) intensity is a necessary first step.

[Statistical]

5. Sad thing is China is already a magnitude more energy efficient than the US

The US utterly sucks in terms of GDP per unit of energy. I mean we aren't even in the same league as other G7 nations much less the best of developed world.

[OKIsItJustMe]

6. Yeah, people complain about China building coal plants

But (obviously) their coal plants are newer than our old dinosaurs. That fact alone gives them an efficiency advantage over us.