Monarch butterflies seem to be facing yet another year of declining numbers as they battle against climate change and the loss of habitat. And this one could be one of the worst ever, a leading entomologist said. The odds may be against monarch butterflies resurging to normal population levels this year, worries entomologist Chip Taylor and director of Monarch Watch at the University of Kansas-Lawrence.
The monarch butterfly population that went to Mexico this past winter was the smallest overwintering population ever, said Taylor. And then the butterflies were hit this past winter with three massive storms, including a hail storm followed by 15 inches of rain. Taylor estimates that the population could have been reduced by at least 50 per cent and perhaps considerably more. “I’m really concerned,” said Taylor. “This means the numbers going to Texas (the first reproductive stop on their long migration back to Ontario) are going to be down.” And down in a big way. That translates into a smaller group of butterflies trying to lay eggs and rebuild the population base. “The problem is the numbers are so small the chance of a really strong recovery is not great.”
Last year monarch butterflies found themselves facing bad conditions in Texas because of hot temperatures. The egg-laying population died off really fast, and for those that survived the number of eggs laid was substantially down. This year, however, conditions in Texas are good: Vegetation is lush and the temperature is cool. Reproduction should be quite good, Taylor said. But will it be good enough to return to healthy numbers? Highly debatable, said Taylor. “We’ve been below the long-term average for six years,” he said.
It takes three or four generations of monarchs to reach Canada. Then in the fall, that final generation returns to Mexico where they overwinter before starting the whole reproduction process over again.
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