Wind Power Soared Past 150,000 Megawatts in 2009

[bananas]

http://www.earth-policy.org/index.php?/indicators/C49/wind_power_2010

March 30, 2010
Wind Power Soared Past 150,000 Megawatts in 2009
J. Matthew Roney

Even in the face of a worldwide economic downturn, the global wind industry posted another record year in 2009 as cumulative installed wind power capacity grew to 158,000 megawatts. With this 31 percent jump, the global wind fleet is now large enough to satisfy the residential electricity needs of 250 million people. Wind provides electricity in over 70 countries, 17 of which now have at least 1,000 megawatts installed.


World Cumulative Installed Wind Power Capacity and Annual Addition, 1980-2009

China led the way in 2009 with an astonishing 13,000 megawatts of new wind capacity, the first time any country has built more than 10,000 megawatts in a single year. With 25,000 megawatts overall, China has doubled its total installed wind capacity in each of the last five years, bringing it into third place behind the United States and Germany. (See data). And considering the ambitious projects already in its development pipeline, it is not likely to stay in third place for long.

China’s unprecedented Wind Base program helps explain why. Six wind-rich provinces across the country’s northern half—from northwestern Xinjiang to eastern Jiangsu—have been selected to host seven wind mega-complexes of between 10,000 and 37,000 megawatts each. When complete, these “wind bases” will boast close to 130,000 megawatts of generating capacity, which is more than the entire world had at the end of 2008. Amendments to China’s landmark Renewable Energy Law of 2006, due to take effect in April 2010, aim to support this ambitious wind growth. Government agencies have been directed to determine and enforce the share of total electricity generation that must come from renewable sources, not unlike the renewable portfolio standards adopted by 29 U.S. states. The amendments will also provide for badly needed transmission lines and grid upgrades.

The United States passed longtime leader Germany in installed capacity in 2008 and then widened its lead in 2009, expanding its wind fleet by nearly 10,000 megawatts to reach a cumulative 35,000 megawatts. Texas remained the leading state in both annual and total wind installations, reaching 9,400 megawatts overall. And while Iowa is a distant second, with 3,700 megawatts of total wind capacity, at least 17 percent of its electricity generation comes from wind.

<snip>

Most of the world’s wind turbines are found on land, but offshore wind capacity is poised to grow rapidly from its current 2,100 megawatts. (See data).

<snip>

Having increased ninefold in total capacity since the start of the twenty-first century, wind power is quickly solidifying its position as an important part of the global energy mix. As governments look to reduce dependence on price-volatile fossil fuels and to cut carbon emissions, wind—a widespread, abundant, and inexhaustible resource with zero fuel cost—is becoming an increasingly attractive option. In a 2009 study of world wind resources, Harvard University scientists concluded that the top 10 carbon dioxide-emitting countries could satisfy all of their electricity needs using wind alone. The world will of course use a variety of technologies to meet future energy demand, but these findings leave no doubt: the potential for wind power to replace fossil fuels and take a leading role in stabilizing climate is huge.

<snip>

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About EPI

Mission

The Earth Policy Institute (EPI) was founded in 2001 by Lester Brown, the founder and former president of the Worldwatch Institute, to provide a plan of a sustainable future along with a roadmap of how to get from here to there. EPI works at the global level simply because no country can fully implement a Plan B economy in isolation.

EPI’s goals are (1) to provide a global plan (Plan B) for moving the world onto an environmentally and economically sustainable path, (2) to provide examples demonstrating how the plan would work, and (3) to keep the media, policymakers, academics, environmentalists, and other decision-makers focused on the process of building a Plan B economy.

<snip>

[Taverner]

1. An upside to Climate Change?

[bananas]

2. This is without strong climate change legislation or international agreements

those should happen over the next two years.

[kristopher]

3. China has already placed renewables at the front of the line for selling power.

In my opinion that is going to deliver more results than any other policy possibly could.

I look forward to watching the relative rate of installation between them and places where other policy tools are used.

[joshcryer]

17. Too bad most of their wind installations are at the lowest rated ranges in the country.

[joshcryer]

4. Close to .5% world energy utilization (assuming we had smart grids, etc).

Assuming an implausible .40 capacity factor. Not bad. But not enough to impress me.

[jpak]

5. ummm- wind power now satisfies 4% of global consumer electrical demand

and doubling in capacity roughly every 5 years.

In 20 years, how much of global consumer electrical demand will be satisfied by wind generated electricity?

:rofl:

[kristopher]

6. Nuclear delivers 2.2% of consumed energy and is declining. nt

[Statistical]

13. One flawed stat backing up another flawed stat.

You often have to read carefully to catch the trickery of our resident anti-nuclear shills.

" ummm- wind power now satisfies 4% of global consumer electrical demand"

Nuclear delivers 2.2% of consumed energy and is declining.

The intent is to make it look like wind delivers a large % of electrical power and nuclear a smaller one.
It is just smoke and mirrors.

4% of global demand? Not quite. Not sure what pack of lies that was pulled from but even the WWEA is willing to stretch the truth that much.

340TWh or 2% (rounded) of world's electrical consumption. (Page 5)
http://www.wwindea.org/home/images/stories/worldwindenergyreport2009_s.pdf

Not really accurate to round to whole number when dealing with such small numbers.
Global consumption of electricity is 19,860 Twh
340 / 19,860 = 1.7% Wind Supplied 1.7% of global electrical consumption.

Nuclear provided 2594 TWh.
2594 / 19,860 = 13.1%

So when wind says they are doubling every 3 years that isn't all that impressive while they are small. Projected growth rate for 2010 is more like double every four years.
340 TWh * 2^(10/4) = 1923 TWh. A decade from now wind will still be less than 2/3 the current generation of nuclear energy. That assumes they can keep up that growth rate.


So what is the second false claim about? Primary energy which includes all forms of energy (electricity, heating, transportation, etc).
This isn't comparable to wind % of electrical demand. Electrical demand vs. primary energy.
Of course that post replied to a post talking about electrical consumption so it is apples & oranges.

Primary energy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_resources_and_consumption#Primary_energy

Wind power is a rounding error. 340TWh / 24 /365 = 0.038 TW (average).
0.038 / 15.8 = 0.26% of primary energy.

So looking at apples to apples

Capacity
Wind: 150 GW
Nuclear: 374 GW

Generation
Wind: 340 TWh
Nuclear: 2594 TWh

Electric Consumption Supplied
Wind: 1.7%
Nuclear: 13.1%

Primary Power Supplied
Wind: 0.26%
Nuclear: 6.2%

Smoke and mirrors, smoke and mirrors

[joshcryer]

14. After the nuclear costs thread I made it became clear to me that I was being misled.

So I have no problem with you using the word 'trickery' here.

[Statistical]

15. The thing is that they can't play fast and loose with reality.

340 Twh from 150GW of capacity = 26% capacity factor.

Even the wind lobby best case projection for 2020 is 1900 GW.
http://www.wwindea.org/home/images/stories/worldwindenergyreport2009_s.pdf

If same capacity factor holds (it may fall as best wind sites are taken average output will decline):
1900 GW * 0.26 * 24 * 365 /1000 = 4327 TWh

That would be roughly 25% of today's electrical demand but by 2020 demand it projected to grow to 26,000 TWh.
Wind will be about 16% of global electrical demand in 2020 under wind lobby optimal projection. The idea we can do it with wind only is a joke.
Hell if we do what some people want and build wind and shut down nuclear the net net will be essentially no reduction in CO2 emissions at all.

Wind will play an important role in global power supply but it won't be 100% or even 50% in next couple decades.

[joshcryer]

16. No one says wind only, but a combination of wind, solar, and hydro, along with V2G.

The whole history of the future world depends on V2G becoming realized, under their "plan."

[joshcryer]

7. Electricity is only part of world energy utilization.

[joshcryer]

8. Where is your dishonest cite for that?

World electrical consumption is around 20 trillion kilowatt hours according to EIA: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/electricity.html

150,000 megawatts is 150,000,000 kilowatts.

wind energy * hours in a day * days in a year:
(150000000*24*365) = 1314000000000 kilowatt hours

wind 'nameplate' kilowatts * (implausible) capacity factor:
1314000000000 * .40 = 525600000000 kilowatt hours

implausible kilowatt hours / world energy utilization * 100 percent
(525600000000/20000000000000) * 100 = 2.62%

A more realistic number is a capacity factor of .30 (which is generous since wikipedia claims around .20, but they also use 2006 numbers for electrical usage, I extrapolated to 20 TKWh).

wind 'nameplate' kilowatts * (plausible) capacity factor:
1314000000000 * .30 = 394200000000 kilowatt hours

plausible kilowatt hours / world energy utilization * 100 percent
(394200000000/20000000000000) * 100 = 1.97%

This is close to Wikipedia's numbers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power#Wind_power_usage

[jpak]

9. What percentage of global population is 250 million people?

:rofl:

[joshcryer]

10. So you don't have a cite? I assume you can't do math either.

:rofl:

[joshcryer]

11. Wait, you think 20 TKWh is for 250 million people?

You apparently didn't read the link:

World net electricity generation increases by 77 percent in the reference case, from 18.0 trillion kilowatthours in 2006 to 23.2 trillion kilowatthours in 2015 and 31.8 trillion kilowatthours in 2030 (Table 10)

:rofl:

[kristopher]

12. Kick