Potsdam Institute Study - Even IF Copenhagen Accord Implemented, 50%+ Chance Of 3C Increase By 2100

[hatrack]

Carbon-curbing pledges under the Copenhagen Accord are likely to doom Earth to warming of three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) or more, compared to the deal's target of 2 C (3.6 F), scientists said on Wednesday.

In an analysis published by the journal Nature, researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) near Berlin said the promises fell very short of the headline-making mark. "It's amazing how unambitious these pledges are," they said.

Born in the final hours of the chaotic UN climate summit last December, the Accord sets a goal of limiting warming to 2 C (3.6 F). But it does not set a date for achieving this, nor stepping-stone targets for getting there, and the roster of pledges it sets up, gathering rich and poor countries alike, is voluntary.

If the promises are carried out, global yearly emissions of greenhouse gases will increase by 10 to 20 percent above current levels, reaching the equivalent of 47.9-53.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) by 2020, says the study. "This would result in a greater than 50 percent chance that warming will exceed 3 C (5.4 F) by 2100," PIK said in a press release. "To be on track for meeting the 'below 2 C' climate target, global emissions of no more than 40 to 44 gigatonnes (billion tonnes) of CO2 equivalent have to be achieved by 2020."

EDIT

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-copenhagen-pledges-set-earth-for-3-c-warming--study-1953350.html