DOE report "20% Wind Energy by 2030" discusses what needs to be done to get there by 2030

[JohnWxy]

Wind Energy Could Produce 20 Percent of U.S. Electricity By 2030

WASHINGTON, DC - The D.O.E. (DOE) today released a first-of-its kind report that examines the technical feasibility of harnessing wind power to provide up to 20 percent of the nation's total electricity needs by 2030. Entitled "20 Percent Wind Energy by 2030", the report identifies requirements to achieve this goal including reducing the cost of wind technologies, citing new transmission infrastructure, and enhancing domestic manufacturing capability.

DOE summary of report:
20% Wind Energy by 2030: Increasing Wind Energy's Contribution to U.S. Electricity Supply


20% Wind Energy by 2030: Increasing Wind Energy's Contribution to U.S. Electricity Supply

Overview

In 2008, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published a report that examines the technical feasibility of using wind energy to generate 20% of the nation's electricity demand by 2030. The report, "20% Wind Energy by 2030: Increasing Wind Energy's Contribution to U.S. Electricity Supply," includes contributions from DOE and its national laboratories, the wind industry, electric utilities, and other groups. The report examines the costs, major impacts, and challenges associated with producing 20% wind energy or 300 GW of wind generating capacity by 2030.

The report's conclusions include:

1. Reaching 20% wind energy will require enhanced transmission infrastructure, streamlined siting and permitting regimes, improved reliability and operability of wind systems, and increased U.S. wind manufacturing capacity.

2. Achieving 20% wind energy will require the number of turbine installations to increase from approximately 2000 per year in 2006 to almost 7000 per year in 2017.

3. Integrating 20% wind energy into the grid can be done reliably for less than 0.5 cents per kWh.

4. Achieving 20 percent wind energy is not limited by the availability of raw materials.

5. Addressing transmission challenges such as siting and cost allocation of new transmission lines to access the Nation's best wind resources will be required to achieve 20% wind energy.

Full report here:

20% Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energy’s Contribution to U.S. Electricity Supply

[Statistical]

1. Very good news.

However it does show that some peoples 100% renewable in a decade fantasies are just that.

Say we have 20% wind by 2030 and hydro even grows to 10% (it is 6% now and likely to decline). Solar is a decade behind wind in terms of capacity and growth. Maybe that will change and Solar will leapfrog ahead of other renewables but we shouldn't bank the future on it. Say we end up with half as much solar at half the capacity factor that would be like 5% of our electrical needs. Note this is about 500% of solar industries own projections.

That gives us roughly 35% of capacity by traditional renewable. If anyone thinks untested tidal or experimental geothermal is going to leapfrog ahead of wind they are just being silly. Maybe "alternate" alternate energy (tidal, experimental geothermal, biomass) makes up another 15% combined (and that is a stretch. That gives us <50% low carbon sources.

What do we do for the remaining 50%?
Natural Gas - High Carbon
Coal - High Carbon
Fossil Fuel w/ CCS - Low Carbon
Nuclear - Low Carbon

Some combination of CCS & Nuclear would be the best solution to produce the balance.

This is what Obama sees.
This is what Europe 2050 comittee sees.
This is what the world community sees.

If you are realistic about the collasal amount of fossil fuel capacity that needs to be replaced (which took a century to build in first place) it is easy to see banking on renewable only is going to fall short.

Equally stupid is thinking 100% nuclear can do the job. It will never happen. So we need some of everything:
Wind - Nuclear - Solar - Efficiency - Geothermal - CCS

[JohnWxy]

3. MOre efficient use of energy could save 30% of power requirments by 2030 -

The Potential of Energy Efficiency: An Overview


The AEF Energy Efficiency Panel concluded that existing technology, or technologies that will be developed in the normal course of business, could save 30 percent of the energy that would have been used by 2030 under current policies and assumptions

[Statistical]

4. Excelent. Even if implemented there is still a "fossil fuel gap".

It total generation declines 30% compared to projection then in numbers I used renewables wouldn't provide 50% they would provide 71% however that still leaves a gap.

The point is we aren't going to get off fossil fuels in next 2 decades without all of the above: renewable - efficiency - ccs - nuclear

[OKIsItJustMe]

2. Please note that this story is almost exactly 2 years old

I've cited this study in the past.
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/pdfs/41869.pdf

Here's a graph which should be of interest:

Note that the annual installed capacity for 2010 is around 4GW

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=243540&mesg_id=243595">In 2009, we built almost 10GW (i.e. the target rate for 2014.)

[kristopher]

5. That is helpful for perspective. Thanks.