Gulf Oil Spill Far Worse Than Officials, BP Admit, Says Independent Analyst (20 kbpd?)

[GliderGuider]

Gulf Oil Spill Far Worse Than Officials, BP Admit, Says Independent Analyst

Close to 5,000 barrels of oil a day are pouring into the Gulf of Mexico following the destruction of an offshore oil platform last week, according to the U.S. Coast Guard. Operator BP originally argued that the amount was far less (only 1,000 barrels or so), but today it concurred with the government's numbers.

Too bad they're both wrong, according to a group of independent analysts who are watching the spill via satellite and aerial data from their offices in West Virginia. They say the spill is far worse than either the company or the government has acknowledged so far.

Five thousand barrels a day is "a bare-bones limit," says John Amos, the president and founder of the nonprofit firm SkyWatch, which specializes in gathering and analyzing satellite and aerial data to promote environmental conservation.

Amos estimates that the amount of oil leaking into the Gulf is more like 20,000 barrels a day -- four times the Coast Guard estimate, and 20 times what BP originally claimed. That would add up to about 12 million gallons of oil so far, making this spill worse than the 1989 wreck of the Exxon Valdez, which dumped 11 million gallons into Alaska's Prince William Sound -- one of the nation's worst environmental disasters.

He's making his volume calculations based on the observed size of the slick, BP's reports of the thickness (3% of the slick is 100 microns thick) and the thickness of oil (1 micron) required to make a visible sheen on the other 97%. His calculations may be conservative.

[Dead_Parrot]

1. Fuck. nt

[izquierdista]

2. Worse than Exxon Valdez?

I predict it will be gone sooner than that spill of 20 years ago. The climate of the Gulf is much better at bioremediation of this sort of thing. Even given that the slick could be a lot thicker than just a 100 micron layer floating on the surface of the water.

If any DUers along the Gulf Coast want to organize and get involved in the remediation, send me a PM.

[DemReadingDU]

3. Update: It is even worse

4/30/10 The Gulf of Mexico oil spill could be leaking at a rate of 25,000 barrels a day, five times the government's current estimate, industry experts say. Basing their calculations on government data and standard industry measurement tools, the experts said the Gulf spill may already rival the historic 1969 Santa Barbara, Calif., and 1989 Exxon Valdez disasters. Ian MacDonald, professor of oceanography at Florida State University who specializes in tracking ocean oil seeps from satellite imagery, said there may already be more than 9 million gallons of oil floating in the Gulf now, based on his estimate of a 25,000 barrel-a-day leak rate. That's compared to 12 million gallons spilled in the Valdez accident. Interior Department officials said it may take 90 days to cap the leaking well. If the 25,000 barrels a day is accurate and it leaks for 90 days, that's 2.25 million barrels or 94.5 million gallons.

more...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703871904575216382160623498.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines


and more worse...

4/30/10 Leaked report: Government fears Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher
In scientific circles, an order of magnitude means something is 10 times larger. In this case, an order of magnitude higher would mean the volume of oil coming from the well could be 10 times higher than the 5,000 barrels a day coming out now. That would mean 50,000 barrels a day, or 2.1 million gallons a day. It appears the new leaks mentioned in the Wednesday release are the leaks reported to the public late Wednesday night.

more...
http://blog.al.com/live/2010/04/deepwater_horizon_secret_memo.html

[GliderGuider]

4. Fuck

Excuse my French.

[phantom power]

5. "You've got sand getting into the pipe, its eroding the pipe all the time, like a sandblaster"

BP Plc executive Doug Suttles said Thursday the company was worried about "erosion" of the pipe at the wellhead. A new leak in that piping was discovered Wednesday, suggesting the erosion is worsening.

Sand is an integral part of the formations that hold oil under the Gulf. That sand, carried in the oil as it shoots through the piping, is blamed for the ongoing erosion described by BP.

"The pipe could disintegrate. You've got sand getting into the pipe, its eroding the pipe all the time, like a sandblaster," said Ron Gouget, a former oil spill response coordinator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"When the oil is removed normally, it comes out at a controlled rate. You can still have abrasive particles in that. Well, now, at this well, its coming out at fairly high velocity," Gouget continued. "Any erosive grains are abrading the inside of the pipe and all the steel that comes in contact with the liquid. It's essentially sanding away the pipe."

http://blog.al.com/live/2010/04/gulf_mexico_oil_spill_worst_case.html

[Dead_Parrot]

8. Oops. nt

[Arctic Dave]

9. If the abrasives sheer the the string, The sh*t will really hit the fan.

It will become a full bore spill with nothing choking it down.

[trof]

6. crap

I live 15 miles from the Alabama gulf coast.
In addition to the ecological disaster, our seafood and tourism industries are screwed.
This will put thousands out of work.
Great.
:sarcasm:

[DemReadingDU]

7. Amazing Photos Of The Deepwater Oil Explosion

This is huge...

4/30/10 Amazing Photos Of The Deepwater Oil Explosion

http://www.businessinsider.com/amazing-photos-of-the-deepwater-oil-explosion-2010-4

[depakid]

10. Yesterday's map

Double fuck- as this continues to grow, unabated.