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bananas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-10 07:58 AM
Original message
UK not getting new nuclear reactors any time soon
Edited on Wed May-26-10 08:14 AM by bananas
New report by Cambridge Econometrics:
http://nuclear-news.net/2010/05/25/uk-not-getting-new-nuclear-reactors-any-time-soon/

UK not getting new nuclear reactors any time soon

U.K. Energy Policy In A Muddle – WSJ, By Selina Williams, 24 May 2010, “……….Not all the policies required for the construction of new nuclear power plants–a key source of low-carbon electricity–are finalized and it’s unlikely that any will be built until after 2020, the report adds. Decomissioning of old nuclear power plants and what will be done with the waste have yet to be completely pinned down. And the new coalition government’s decision to do away with the Infrastructure Planning Commission, which the previous government set up to streamline and speed up planning decisions for new nuclear, could create more delays to investment…….U.K. Energy Policy In A Muddle – The Source – WSJ


Some history: "Secret nuclear talks held at No 10"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/secret-nuclear-talks-held-at-no-10-769989.html

Secret nuclear talks held at No 10

Ministers kept no record – and tried to hide details – of Brown adviser's meetings with energy chiefs. Brown's special adviser met energy chiefs off the record, before new power plants were announced

Sunday, 13 January 2008
By Andy Rowell and Richard Cookson

The Government held at least nine secret meetings at Downing Street with the bosses of nuclear energy companies while it formulated controversial plans for a new generation of the power plants, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

<snip>

Between September 2005 and June 2006 Mr Norris secretly met with Bill Coley, the chief executive of British Energy, and its chairman, Adrian Montague, who was knighted during that period. Last week Mr Coley announced: "British Energy is already taking steps to ensure the company is well positioned to be at the heart of the new build programme."

Between February and October 2006, Mr Norris met on three occasions with the EDF UK chief executive, Vincent de Rivaz, and Pierre Gadonneix, the chairman. Mr Brown's brother, Andrew, is EDF's head of media relations. Mr de Rivaz said last week: "After a thorough consultation, we welcome the Government's positive decision on new nuclear."

Mr Norris also met John Ritch from the World Nuclear Association, the industry's lobby group.

The meetings took place during the Government's first public consultation on a new nuclear programme. However, that consultation was criticised by the High Court last year as "flawed" and "inadequate" after a challenge by Greenpeace. Ben Ayliffe, a Greenpeace spokesman, said: "This just shows the extraordinary level of collusion between the Government and the nuclear industry."

<snip>

Additional reporting by George Arbuthnott


Wikipedia has more history, but doesn't mention the secret talks:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_the_United_Kingdom#2006_Energy_Review

2006 Energy Review

Status

Following a judicial review requested by Greenpeace, on February 15, 2007 elements of the 2006 Energy Review were ruled 'seriously flawed', and 'not merely inadequate but also misleading'. As a result, plans to build a new generation of nuclear power plants were ruled illegal. See Nuclear power in the United Kingdom for details.

Background

The UK Government published its White Paper on Energy (“Our Energy Future – creating a Low Carbon Economy”) in 2003, establishing a formal energy policy for the UK for the first time in 20 years. Essentially, the White Paper recognised that a limitation of carbon dioxide (CO2 – the main gas contributing to global climate change) was going to be necessary. It committed the UK to working towards a 60% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, and identified business opportunities in so doing: a recurrent theme throughout the document was “cleaner, smarter energy”. It also claimed to be based on four pillars: the environment, energy reliability, affordable energy for the poorest and competitive markets.

However the White Paper focused more on analysing the issues than in providing detailed policy responses. Some detail began to filter through in a series of follow-on documents, including an Energy Efficiency Implementation Plan (April 2004) and the DTI Microgeneration Strategy "Our Energy Challenge" (March 2006). Nonetheless, most of the policies were a continuation of business as usual, with emphasis on market-led solutions and an expectation that consumers act rationally, for example in installing energy efficiency measures to make running cost savings.

However, in November 2005 it was announced that the Government, under DTI leadership, would undertake a full scale Energy Review, and over 500 organisations and individuals made detailed submissions as part of this review. Officially, the review was to take stock of the outcomes to date of the White Paper, which a particular focus on cutting carbon (emissions of which remained stubbornly high) and to look in more detail at security of supply, as the UK’s oil and gas production from the North Sea had peaked, and Russia was seen as being a high-risk supplier of gas.

Unofficially, it was widely felt that the real reason behind the review was to allow nuclear power back into the energy debate, as it had been sidelined in the 2003 White Paper. That document had said “This white paper does not contain specific proposals for building new nuclear power stations. However we do not rule out the possibility that at some point in the future new nuclear build might be necessary if we are to meet our carbon targets. Before any decision to proceed with the building of new nuclear power stations, there will need to be the fullest public consultation and the publication of a further white paper setting out our proposals.” The Energy Review was therefore to be this public consultation. A further White Paper was promised for early 2007.



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bananas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-10 08:11 AM
Response to Original message
1. Similar analysis in 2006 and 2007
From 2006:
"Clare Spottiswoode, deputy chairman of British Energy, has said that no new nuclear generation capacity can be expected in the UK or much of the the rest of Europe before 2020."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x77100

From 2007:
"No new nuclear plants likely before 2020 in Britain"
"Poyry Energy Consulting says the commercial case for building new nuclear plants is shaky"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x109378


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Jamastiene Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-10 08:21 AM
Response to Original message
2. After this, they don't need them.
They have BP as a weapon of mass destruction.
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bananas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-10 08:27 AM
Response to Original message
3. Cambridge Econometrics Press Release
Has lots of info:
http://www.camecon.com/UK/UKEnergy/PressRelease-UKEnergy.aspx

Cambridge Econometrics
Press Release

Embargoed until 00.01 Monday 24 May 2010

Latest projections confirm that:

* the knock-on effects of the 2008-09 recession, and the modest economic upturn forecast over the short term, point to a further decline in the UK's carbon emissions in 2010
* the UK is expected to come close to meeting its carbon budgets for the first two budget periods (2008-12 and 2013-2017), but not the third (2018-22), unless the incoming coalition Government introduces firm policies to promote renewable energy and energy efficiency in the key sectors of the economy not covered by the trading arrangements of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)

<snip>


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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-10 12:52 PM
Response to Original message
4. All economic reports are very clear - merchant nuclear cannot proceed ...
...unless ALL risks are shifted to the public sector.

Citigroup Nov 2009 analysis

New Nuclear – The Economics Say No

UK Green Lights New Nuclear – Or Does It?


 Green lighting new nuclear? — The UK government today announced a fast-track planning process for new nuclear power stations. 10 sites have been approved for possible development. The government is presenting today’s announcement as providing the green light for a major new nuclear programme, which it says is needed to meet climate change and security of supply targets.

 But no financial support has been offered — The government has not announced any direct financial support for new nuclear. The government still seems to expect the private sector to take an unacceptable level of risk, in our view.

 The five big risks — Nuclear power station developers face five big risks:
Planning,
Construction,
Power Price,
Operational, and
Decommissioning.

The government today has sought to limit the Planning risk. While important for encouraging developers to bring forward projects, this is the least important risk financially.

 The three Corporate Killers — Three of the risks faced by developers — Construction, Power Price, and Operational — are so large and variable that individually they could each bring even the largest utility company to its knees financially. This makes new nuclear a unique investment proposition for utility companies.

 No where else in the world — Government policy remains that the private sector takes full exposure to the three main risks; Construction, Power Price and Operational. Nowhere in the world have nuclear power stations been built on this basis.

 Nor will they be built in the UK — We see little if any prospect that new nuclear stations will be built in the UK by the private sector unless developers can lay off substantial elements of the three major risks. Financing guarantees, minimum power prices, and / or government-backed power off-take agreements may all be needed if stations are to be built.





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bananas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-30-10 08:34 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. And closed fuel cycles will be even more expensive. nt
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-31-10 05:51 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. Catastrophic climate change cannot be averted...
...unless all risks are shifted into the public sector.

Sorry cappies, you are fucking us, with no hope of doing shit about the environment.
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bananas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-31-10 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. Al Gore: "We have all the tools we need to solve 3 or 4 climate crises"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x211474

Sorry nukies, you are fucking us, with no hope of doing shit about the environment.

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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-10 09:28 PM
Response to Original message
5. Kick and Rec
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