Interview with Matthew R. Simmons (Twilight in the Desert) Part 1

[phantom power]

There are links to parts 2 and 3 at the top. Very interesting interview, the exerpt below is just a teaser. One thing I thought was odd, he claims to be a big Bush supporter. I don't see how anybody who is so deeply aware of the peak oil issue could support the disaster that is BushCo.

SPK: Let me make clear the assumption underlying my next question: if the insurgency in Iraq ends how much oil do you think Iraq can bring online in spare capacity? That it's not already producing now, obviously they have some serious problems because the guerillas are blowing up pipelines left and right, etc, so what I am saying is: if the insurgency ends, what kind of oil can we expect from Iraq?

MRS: The most serious problems that the Iraq oil system has is the two old giant oil fields, Kirkuk and Rumelia, were basically around 80-85% of their sustainable oil production in the 80s and 90s and both of those fields have been terribly abused, over the last two years and they finally were able to, about six to nine weeks ago, to let two contracts to have the first serious reservoir studies done of those fields since the late 1970s. And my sense is that what the reservoir field studies will show, if they are done properly is that they basically destroyed those two fields.

And now the question shifts to, well, what about all these structures they have discovered that have basically never been developed? Well Saudi Arabia has 80 of those structures, but for some reason or another in the $50 billion plan of all these old fields they are trying to rebuild, not a single one of the 80 is being tackled.

So, I suspect that in Iraq they must be a little bit like Saudi Arabia's structures. You know, they are pushing these things so hard they had the money, and it really isn't that expensive to actually bring on a new field that you've already discovered.

Then there's the question about exploration in the Western Desert. They clearly haven't, but they've explored extensively in Syria and Jordan and in the Arabian Peninsula and they have never found anything.

If we were evaluating an IPO of an exploration project in the Western Desert Of Iraq I'd say, "until you found something you couldn't raise any money for it."

http://agonist.org/story/2005/6/3/124329/2939

[orwell]

1. Linkie? n/t

[phantom power]

2. Oops, I added the link.

[phantom power]

3. One thing about this interview that's disturbing...

His analysis of the water-pumping practices strongly suggests that when peak oil hits, it won't be a gradual decline. It will be a relatively fast collapse in production. The worst possible scenario, where the rug gets pulled out from under everybody. From pumping millions of barrels per day, down to hundreds of thousands.

[Sean-Paul Kelley]

4. Re: One thing about this interview that's disturbing..."

Yes, you are exactly correct. That is precisely the idea he was articulating. It's not a popular one among oilmen, especially as it's true. Most people seem to be allergic to that these days.

[phantom power]

5. Denial is easier than admitting that the world as we know it is ending.

Reminds me of a scene from The Titanic.

(deluded passenger) But the Titanic is unsinkable!

(Titanic's designer) Oh, I assure you, she can sink. She's made of metal!

[Sean-Paul Kelley]

6. Yeah,

It does remind me of that! No doubt.

[Terry in Austin]

7. Bottle-brush drilling

Hyper-extraction techniques used at Ghawar

From last year's ASPO conference:

With bottle brush drilling, a shaft is drilled horizontally over long distances with a number of brush-like openings... However, when the water table hits the horizontal shaft, often without warning, the whole field is virtually dead.. this is exactly what had already happened in Oman, Syria and Yemen.

Ghawar is the world's biggest oil field. It could play out at any time:

“... Ghawar ’s ultimate recoverable reserves in 1975 were estimated at 60 billion barrels. ...It had produced 55 billion barrels up to the end of 2003 and is still producing at 1.8 billion per annum. That shows you how close it might be to the end. When Ghawar dies, the world is officially in decline.”