Arlene Past W. Cuba, Reforming, Heading North - Max. Sust. 60, 1000 MB

[hatrack]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 101453
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...ARLENE STRENGTHENS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
TO ST MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ALSO AT 11 AM
...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HR.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SATELLITE IMAGES...AIRCRAFT DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF ARLENE HAS REFORMED A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES... 705 KM... SOUTHEAST OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 470 MILES... 755
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
...240 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH RAINS WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO OVER 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH ARLENE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/151226.shtml?prob

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/101453.shtml

[jpak]

1. I'm having a hurricane party tomorrow

No one named Arlene is invited though...

[phantom power]

3. Do you live in a hurricane zone?

[jpak]

7. Yup - Pensacola

and to make matters worse, I'm house sitting in Gulf Breeze (closer to the water) for another guy in my department...and I have to secure his lab and office...and I secure my lab and office ..ugh...

His house survived Ivan OK (no storm surge) so I'm not **too** concerned.

But I'm leaving my PV and solar hot water systems at my place (inland).

I built them for hurricanes (but use them all the time now).

Just gonna have to stay drunk I guess...

:)

[phantom power]

8. Being drunk doesn't make it hurt less, but...

it DOES make you care less. And isn't that what's really important?

Best of luck! Looks like it might be a long, busy hurricane season...

[jpak]

9. Thanks

I've been through hurricanes before and I'm a certified hurricane pussy.

I don't take chances with them and usually get out of town when I feel a bad one coming on. I got out of town 3 days before Ivan. Everyone gave me crap about it at the time (but not after it was over - not a peep).

This one should not be any worse than Erin back in 1995 (eye came over old house) - but I really need to take care of my friend's place this time.

Got to get to the liquor store!

:)

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[hatrack]

2. 2:00 EDT - Arlene 400 SSE Pensacola - Max. 60 Mph, 997 MB, Will Strengthen

EDIT

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.0
WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE
WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH...WERE
RECENTLY REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING ARLENE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION...
IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/101754.shtml

[phantom power]

4. That's a peculiar looking storm.

It's still quite lopsided. I wonder what the eye would look like if it upgrades to a hurricane.

[GumboYaYa]

5. Tropical Storm...that's nothing.......

Hell, after riding out Andrew, even a 1 or 2 seems like nothing these days.

The real victims of this one will be all the marsh animals who will see their homes washed away.

[hatrack]

6. 5:00 EDT Arlene 345 SSE Pensacola Max Sust. 65 MPH 997 MB

Looking hurricane-ish, but a bit early yet . . .

EDIT

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED...AND ARLENE IS NOW MOVING JUST WEST
OF DUE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON SATURDAY. ARLENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/101754.shtml

[phantom power]

10. Ocean surface temps are already "hurricane ready"

Depending on who you read, a hurricane requires ocean surface temperatures of either 80F or 82F, to sustain itself. The ocean surface temps for the atlantic and the gulf are already showing significant areas in that range. According to the text I read, temps won't peak until August.

[hatrack]

11. 11 PM EDT - Arlene 245 SSE Pensacola Max. Sustained 70 MPH 989 MB

EDIT

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT
230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT
245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION...ALONG WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED...IS
EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ARLENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN
THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND
THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/101453.shtml

[hatrack]

12. 1:00 CDT Arlene 20 SSE Gulf Shores Max Sustained 60 MPH 991 MB

EDIT

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST OR ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA.

ARLENE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. ON THIS
TRACK...THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS THE
COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ARLENE HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL HAS DECREASED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES."

EDIT