DOE explains why the nuclear industry collapsed in 1974

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Fri Sep-03-10 04:08 PM
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DOE explains why the nuclear industry collapsed in 1974

"Orders for new units fell off sharply after 1974 .. the chief reason ... was economic." ...
"In reality, nuclear power plants have always been costly to build and, for several reasons, became radically more costly between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s."

Cancellations skyrocketed at the same time.
Charts of reactor orders, cancellations, and shutdowns by year.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/eh/eh.html

United States Energy History

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The success of the demonstration plants and the growing awareness of U.S. dependency on imported crude oil led to a wave of enthusiasm for nuclear electric power that sent orders for reactor units soaring between 1966 and 1974 (Figure 28). The number of operable units increased in turn, as ordered units were constructed, tested, licensed for full power operation, and connected to the electricity grid (Figure 29). However, the curve of operable units lagged behind the curve of ordered units somewhat because of the long construction times required for the large, complex plants. The total number of U.S. operable reactor units peaked in 1990 at 112.

Orders for new units fell off sharply after 1974. Of the total of 259 units ordered to date, none was ordered after 1978. Although safety concerns, especially after the accident at Three Mile Island in 1979, reinforced a growing wariness of nuclear power, the chief reason for its declining momentum in the United States was economic. The promise of nuclear electric power had been that it would, in the now-famous phrase, make energy "too cheap to meter." In reality, nuclear power plants have always been costly to build and, for several reasons, became radically more costly between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s. Utilities began building large plants before much experience had been gained with small ones. Expected economies of scale did not materialize. Many units were forced to undertake costly design changes and equipment retrofits, partially as a result of the Three Mile Island accident. Meanwhile, nuclear power plants have also had to compete with conventional coal- or natural gas-fired plants with declining operating costs.

These trends disillusioned many utilities and investors. Interest in further orders subsided and many ordered units were canceled before they were built. By the end of 2000, 124 units had been canceled, 48 percent of all ordered units (Figure 30).

The average capacity factor of U.S. nuclear units--the ratio of the electricity they actually produced in a given year to the electricity they could have produced if run at continuous full power--has improved steadily over the years, and reached 88 percent in 2000. However, as operable nuclear power plants have aged, some have become uneconomic to operate or have otherwise reached the end of their useful lives. By the end of 2000, 28 once-operable units had been shut down permanently. The joint effect of shutdowns and lack of new units coming on line is that the number of U.S. operable units has fallen off since 1990 to 104. In its Annual Energy Outlook 2001, EIA projects that 27 percent of the nuclear generating capacity that existed at the end of 1999 will be retired by 2020. No new plants are expected to be built during the period.

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