Dennis 135 WSW Guantanamo 951 MB Max Sust. 130 Cat 4 By Cuba Landfall

[hatrack]

EDIT

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS VERY NEAR CABO CRUZ IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND BE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA ON
FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 130 MPH...210 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS
IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES CENTRAL CUBA...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. SANTIAGO DE CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 58 MPH WITH A GUST TO 80 MPH.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/072337.shtml

3-Day track map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205500.shtml?3day

Looks like Pensacola, but still too early to say for sure.

[NNadir]

1. It is perhaps a statistical aberration, but one wonders if these hurricanes

are a function of climatic instability.

There was that first ever hurricane in Brazil, 4 majors in FL last year, and four named storms at the earliest point this year.

It would be interesting to see a historical pattern analysis with some description of the statistical likelihood of such a set of events.

[hatrack]

2. Interesting question - you'd need some years' worth to nail it down

Plus, the Atlantic cycle is apparently moving back to more active.

There's a multi-decadal oscillation that apparently alters hurricane frequency and intensity, assuming that those oscillations are still operative, given all our climatic tweaking of late.

[hatrack]

3. Dennis Now Upgraded To Cat 4 @ 10:00 EDT Max. Sustained 135 850 Mb

000
WTNT34 KNHC 080237
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

...DENNIS BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS UPGRADED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDANA DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN
AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND PINAR
DEL RIO.

EDIT

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR NEAR CABO CRUZ
CUBA AND ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS
NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER
OF DENNIS REMAINS OVER WATER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. AMATEUR RADIO REPORTS FROM THE AFFECTED AREA
INDICATE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA
MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/080237.shtml?

[hatrack]

4. 8:00 EDT Dennis 285 SSE Key West Max Sustained 135 950 MB

Still looks like Pensacola, maybe Mobile.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081149
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA...

EDIT

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...
370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR.
DENNIS HAS MADE A SLIGHT WOBBLE AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...A GENERAL MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST...
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE EYE OF DENNIS WILL REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/081149.shtml

3-day track map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/091832.shtml?3day?large

[phantom power]

5. Sustained winds now at 150mph. Pushing for cat-5.

[hatrack]

6. 7/9 7:00 EDT Dennis Cat 2, Will Grow In Strength, 95 WSW Key West

EDIT

AT 7 AM EDT...1100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AGAIN AND HAVE REACHED 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS
IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES. KEY WEST HAS EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 74 MPH...HURRICANE
FORCE. SOMBRERO KEY...AN ELEVATED PLATFORM NEAR MARATHON
FLORIDA...REPORTED SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH WITH A
GUST TO 88 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/091259.shtml

[hatrack]

7. Dennis Cat 3 By Sun AM; 320 SSE Panama City Max Sust. 105 950 Mb

EDIT

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES... 510 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT
415 MILES... 670 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WERE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DENNIS IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND DENNIS WILL BECOME A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER RESEARCH AIRCRAFT WAS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/092044.shtml

Strike probability map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204558.shtml?prob?large

Tracking map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204558.shtml?3day?large

[hatrack]

8. 7 EDT Update - Dennis 285 S Panama City; Cat 3 Again; Max Sust 115 947 Mb

000
WTNT34 KNHC 092253
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

...DENNIS STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY TO DANGEROUS CATEGOTY 3 MAJOR
HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER AT THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI
BORDER.

EDIT

AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES
SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS
MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT DENNIS HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND DENNIS COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES. ANOTHER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE DENNIS.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/092044.shtml

[NNadir]

9. Mysterious, isn't it?

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news

"Four Atlantic weather systems -- Arlene, Bret, Cindy and Dennis -- reached Tropical Storm status by July 5, the earliest for so many named storms in recorded history. Only three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have hit the U.S. coast in July in the past 100 years. When the maximum sustained winds in Hurricane Dennis peaked at 150 mph on Friday morning, Dennis officially became the strongest July Atlantic Basin hurricane on record and the strongest Atlantic hurricane this early in hurricane season."

When even the Weather Channel, an element of the MSM that, despite its advertised staff of good looking "meterologists," scrupulously avoids mentioning the "controversial" element of "global climate change," is offering tidbits like this, it is surely getting curiouser and curiouser.

Surely these sort of events, outliers from the norm, are yet another piece of evidence of climatic instability.

[hatrack]

11. When even CNN runs a special on global warming (2 wks ago Sunday?) . . .

You know that the worm is turning somewhere.

Of course, Murdoch, et. al. are probably just taking the Brit Hume "buying opportunity" approach. :puke:

[hatrack]

10. 7/9 11PM EDT Dennis 250 S Panama City Cat 4 By Sunday Max Sust 125 941 Mb

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100240
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUING
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...

EDIT

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS
MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DENNIS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS MAY OCCUR AS
FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 14 TO 17 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/100240.shtml

Track map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024557.shtml?3day?large

Strike probability:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024557.shtml?prob?large

[hatrack]

12. 7/10 1 AM Dennis Reaches Cat 4; 235 S Panama City Max Sust 135 937 Mb

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100501
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...DENNIS STRENGTHENS TO 135 MPH...NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

EDIT

AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES
SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION WILL
BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER
TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS MAY OCCUR AS
FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 14 TO 17 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

EDIT



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/100501.shtml

[hatrack]

13. 7/10 8 AM EDT Dennis 125 SSE Pensacola Max Sust. 145 930 Mb

NNW looks likely later in the day - probably Mobile now.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101258
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUES TOWARD NORTHERN
GULF COAST...

...AT 8 AM CDT...1300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

EDIT

AT 8 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI.

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
16 MPH...ALTHOUGH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TODAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS
IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SATELLITE
AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION
TREND MAY BE ENDING. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
DENNIS MAY OCCUR AS FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK
OF THE HURRICANE.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/101258.shtml

Tracking map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092428.shtml?3day?large

Strike probabilities:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092428.shtml?prob?large

[hatrack]

14. 7/10 12PM CDT Dennis 55 SSE Pensacola Max Sust. 135 939 Mb

Looks like it's going to be Pensacola at about 5:00 PM today, on the bubble between Cat 3 and Cat 4 - no further major changes in intensity expected. Good luck, everyone.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101654
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
NOON CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF LANDFALL...

EDIT

AT NOON CDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PENSACOLA
BY MID-AFTERNOON.

DENNIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NOW NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE REMAINING HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST NEAR THE CATEGORY THREE/FOUR
THRESHOLD ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS MAY
OCCUR AS FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER."

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/101654.shtml

Tracking map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143502.shtml?3day?large