The Northeast Blizzard: One More Sign of Global Warming

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2039777,00.html

Going Green

The Northeast Blizzard: One More Sign of Global Warming

By Bryan Walsh Tuesday, Dec. 28, 2010

It's become as much a winter tradition as eggnog at Christmas and champagne on New Year's Eve — the first major snowstorm of the year bringing out the climate-change skeptics. And the bona fide blizzard that has frozen much of the Northeast just a few days after winter officially began definitely qualifies as major. But while piles of snow blocking your driveway hardly conjure images of a dangerously warming world, it doesn't mean that climate change is a myth. The World Meteorological Organization recently reported that 2010 is almost certainly going to be one of the three warmest years on record, while 2001 to 2010 is already the hottest decade in recorded history. Indeed, according to some scientists, all of these events may actually be connected.

One theory is that a warmer Arctic may actually lead to colder and snowier winters in the northern mid-latitudes. Even as countries like Britain — suffering through the coldest December on record — deal with low temperatures and unusual snow, the Arctic has kept on warming, with Greenland and Arctic Canada experiencing the hottest year on record. Temperatures in that region have been 5.4°F to 7.2°F (3°C to 4°C) above normal in 2010. As a result, the Arctic sea-ice cover has continued to shrink; this September, the minimum summer sea-ice extent was more than 770,000 sq. mi. (2 million sq km) below the long-term average, and the third-smallest on record. Snow may be piling up in midtown Manhattan, but the Arctic is continuing its long-term meltdown.
http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,2039730,00.html">(See photos of the blizzard that slammed the Northeast.)

The loss of Arctic sea ice helps accelerate the warming of the atmosphere in the far north, thanks to what's known as the albedo effect. White ice reflects sunlight into space, cooling the air, but when ice melts and is replaced with dark ocean water, the effect is reversed and more of the sun's heat is absorbed. As the Arctic air warms, it raises the altitude of discrete areas of high pressure, which can then alter wind patterns. This, in turn, can weaken the jet stream, allowing more cold air to seep out of the Arctic and into Europe and the eastern U.S. As the authors of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's recent "Arctic Report Card" put it, "There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009-2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic–Cold Continents pattern."
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2035319_2034098,00.html">(See the top 10 green stories of 2010.)

The theory seems counterintuitive, but as Jeff Masters, a meteorologist who writes the great Wunder Blog at Weather Underground, put it in a recent post, it makes sense: "This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar — the refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house." The planet overall is still warming — and the Arctic fastest of all — but the cold air from the far north can result in biting winter weather and major storms, for a while at least.

…

[msongs]

1. umm these storms happen every winter lol nt

[wtmusic]

2. Heh yeah lol. The global warming nuts are at it again.

[tabatha]

8. I would hadly call these people nuts:

This was supposed to be a La Nina year in California - normally a dry year.

NASA image acquired December 18 - 20, 2010

While snow and ice has blanketed much of Europe and the U.S. Midwest, California has been deluged by rainfall that is approaching records for the month of December. News media reported more than 5 inches of rain over much of Los Angeles since the storms began on December 16, with some areas in the nearby mountains reaching 13 inches. The average for the month in the city is typically around 2 inches.

This image shows rainfall amounts over California from December 18 to 20, 2010. The heaviest rainfall—more than 200 millimeters or 7.8 inches—appears in dark blue. A large swath of the state from San Francisco to Los Angeles totaled at least 100 millimeters, with the heaviest precipitation near the coast and in the Sierra Nevada (where several feet of snow fell). The data represents rainfall averaged over large areas (0.25 degrees of Earth's surface), so extremes in local rainfall get smoothed out in the larger picture of the region.

This image is based on data from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA), produced at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. The MPA estimates rainfall by combining measurements from many satellites and calibrating them using rainfall measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite.

The rainfall is a fitting end to a year of unusual weather in southern California, where the spring and summer were cooler than usual, Santa Ana winds were calmer (making for a light fire season), and a one-day temperature record was set in September (117 degrees Fahrenheit). Extensive research suggests weather patterns become more volatile and extremes become more common as global temperatures warm, notes Bill Patzert of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Forecasters were predicting that a cold front from the Gulf of Alaska was going to move down the coast on Tuesday, and the collision of cool northern air with the existing warm, wet air mass was going to bring the heaviest rainfall yet. Another storm is forecast for the weekend. The record for December rainfall in LA is 8.77 inches.

"We're not going to break that record," Patzert told the Los Angeles Times. "We're going to crush it.”

NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using near-real-time data provided courtesy of TRMM Science Data and Information System at Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Michael Carlowicz.

Instrument: TRMM - MPA

Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission.

I'll take the word from NASA scientists any day in comparison to those who can only utter "gloabl warming nuts" and whose depth of knowledge goes no further than that.

[OKIsItJustMe]

(wtmusic was trying to be ironic.)

Sometimes, irony doesn't communicate well.

[tabatha]

11. Yup.

But, the information may help someone get it. Hopefully.

[tabatha]

4. ummm, obviously

but these are more extreme

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=general

Snow falls mostly in winter because water freezes in colder temperatures. However, the QUANTITY of snow has increased.

[aquart]

5. Yes, dear. There is no climate change. Santa Claus said so.

Climate change means we will be getting greater swings, more intense extremes. Not so much now, but more and more and more until there are areas where we cannot live anymore.

At that point, between food shortages, rampant disease, and rising seas, we will experience one of those quaint genetic "bottlenecks" where millions die off and take their DNA with them.

It happens every year.

[OKIsItJustMe]

6. Yup, every year…

http://www.wsbtv.com/weather/26292946/detail.html

'Historic' Snow Fall Totals In For North Georgia

Posted: 6:19 pm EST December 27, 2010Updated: 6:53 pm EST December 27, 2010
ATLANTA -- The official numbers are in from what turned out to be a very White Christmas for many across north Georgia.

With the first measurable snow in Atlanta on Christmas since 1882, the official snow total for the day was 1.3 inches.

…

[BrklynLiberal]

3. Framing the Message. "Global Climate Change" instead of "Global Warming"?

[wtmusic]

7. "Global warming" is accurate.

If people can't understand that it involves averages over longer periods of time, there's no point anyway IMO.

[BrklynLiberal]

9. But one must consider the recipients of the message. Global Climate Change is NOT false.

[wtmusic]

13. Yes it's correct, but not very impactful.

There was a long post at ClimateProgress.org by someone who wanted to relabel the phenomenon as "Climate Deterioration", and provided a good argument for it.

Coming from an advertising background - and again IMO - "Global Climate Change" is weak and too long, while a good 20% of Americans probably don't know what "deterioration" means. Not to mention, re-branding at this point makes it sound like the experts are backpedaling.

[spin]

17. Even better is the term "Global Climate Chaos". (n/t)

[Creative]

10. Huh...? I thought it was supposed to snow in the winter.

Evidently, there are quite a few people who are seeking to profit from this theory.

The problem for them is the fact that it is not selling.

A Pew Research Center poll released today shows that few Americans consider global warming to be a top priority, so few that global warming came in dead last among 21 issues.

.

[tabatha]

12. You have totally missed the point.

It is EXTREMES of weather that is the point. Read through some of the replies.

And as for what the people think - how many Americans to do this day could point to where Iraq is on a map?

[OKIsItJustMe]

14. Pew Research Poll

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1780/poll-global-warming-scientists-energy-policies-offshore-drilling-tea-party

Wide Partisan Divide Over Global Warming

Few Tea Party Republicans See Evidence

October 27, 2010

Views about the existence and causes of global warming have changed little over the past year. A new Pew Research Center poll finds that 59% of adults say there is solid evidence that the earth's average temperature has been getting warmer over the past few decades. In October 2009, 57% said this.

Roughly a third (34%) say that global warming is occurring mostly because of human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels, which also is little changed from last year (36%).

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 13-18 among 2,251 adults reached on landlines and cell phones, finds that 32% say global warming is a very serious problem while 31% think it is somewhat serious. A year ago, 35% described global warming as a very serious problem and 30% said it was somewhat serious.

In 2006, far more Americans said there was solid evidence that the average temperature has been rising over the past few decades. In July of that year, 79% believed there was evidence of global warming, and half (50%) said it was mostly caused by human activity. Much of the change in attitudes about global warming occurred between April 2008 and last fall, with the decline coming mostly, though not entirely, among Republicans and independents.



…

Well, as we know, the majority is always well informed. (Check this Pew Research Poll)

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1804/political-news-quiz-iq-deficit-defense-spending-tarp-inflation-boehner

Public Knows Basic Facts about Politics, Economics, But Struggles with Specifics

Few Aware of Inflation Rate or TARP and Deficit Specifics

November 18, 2010

The public sees the big picture when it comes to the changing balance of power in Washington. Fully 75% say that the Republican Party is generally regarded as doing best in this month's midterm elections.

Far fewer are familiar with the specifics relating to the GOP's victories. Fewer than half (46%) know that the Republicans will have a majority only in the House of Representatives when the new Congress convenes in January, while 38% can identify John Boehner as the incoming House speaker.

The Pew Research Center's latest News IQ Quiz, conducted Nov. 11-14 among 1,001 adults, finds a similar pattern in the public's knowledge about economics. The quiz is composed of 13 multiple-choice questions about current events.

Nearly eight-in-ten (77%) say correctly that the federal budget deficit is larger than it was in the 1990s and 64% know that in recent years the United States has bought more foreign goods than it has sold overseas. As in recent knowledge surveys, about half (53%) estimate the current unemployment rate at about 10%.



…

[wtmusic]

16. Amazing...in four short years a policy of industry disinformation

has steered public opinion 20% against rock-solid science.

Woe is us.

[wtmusic]

15. Many, many more who are seeking to profit by shooting it down

and much more support for the theory than against it.

You're correct in that it is a problem that the theory isn't "selling". It's a problem for me, for you, for our grandkids. But ignorance and apathy have always been a particularly deadly combination.

[pscot]

19. Proving, yet again,

that large numbers of Americans don't know their ass from a hole in the ground.

[kestrel91316]

21. I guess denialist talking points are your stock in trade, eh?

[DCKit]

18. An excellent explanation... the jet stream as an air-curtain, keeping the cold "up there". nt

[wtmusic]

20. Fact: we get more snowstorms in warm years.

Shout it from the snowy rooftops.

"The anti-science crowd has been doing a killer job pushing the myth that the big recent snowstorms somehow undercut our understanding of human-caused global warming. But aside from the fact the precipitation isn’t temperature, it turns out that the “common wisdom” the disinformers are preying on — lots of snow means we must be in a cold season — isn’t even true."

http://climateprogress.org/2010/12/13/more-snow-storms-warm-years-climate-change/