Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

The seventh named July tropical storm, Gert, heads for Mexico.

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Environment/Energy Donate to DU
 
NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-24-05 08:36 PM
Original message
The seventh named July tropical storm, Gert, heads for Mexico.
It's not a particularly big storm, but Tropical storm Gert is going to make landfall in Mexico.



The previous record for named storms in July was broken by Tropical Storm Franklin, which is now heading out to sea.

Dennis, a few weeks ago, was the most powerful storm ever recorded in July, only to be superseded by Emily about a week later. Both were category 4 storms, with Emily flirting with category 5 status.

Dr. William Gray, the famous Colorado State hurricane forecaster originally predicted in December that there would be 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 of Category 3 or higher. By May 31 he had upped his forecast to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 hurricanes greater than Category 3.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season

It seems that he may have underestimated. Maybe his model is breaking down.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
Zorbuddha Donating Member (822 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-24-05 09:35 PM
Response to Original message
1. I heard Gert referred to as a hurricane
earlier today.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-25-05 09:26 AM
Response to Original message
2. The record for named storms in a season was 21, back in 1933.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-25-05 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Soon we'll have to use the Cyrillic alphabet
Say hello to Hurricanes Shcharon, Zheffrey, and Tsindy.

--p!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-25-05 03:50 PM
Response to Original message
3. Gert's been here and gone
And there's still 6 days left in July.

Of course William Gray's model is performing worse than he expected. He didn't count on >90°F Gulf Coast water temperatures. He didn't count on this summer being abnormally hot across three continents instead of one. And he's probably taking the super-cautious route regarding global warming.

Joe Bastardi of Accu-Weather, a winter-weather expert, has been condescendingly knocking "Global Warmingistas" for several years now. (He's also down on most popular accounts of El Niño.) None of the meteorologists want to be perceived as "gullible". It's a good way to kill one's career.

--p!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-25-05 04:25 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. "This can't be right. It says six months."
"No. That scale is in weeks."
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-25-05 05:39 PM
Response to Original message
6. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-25-05 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Your arguments are unassailable. We are unworthy.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-25-05 05:50 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-25-05 06:01 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. my point regarding posts was...
that you're making presumptuous accusations about everybody in this forum, regarding what we do or don't know about climate history, good science, etc.

Anybody who comes here and says "hey y'all never heard of the Dust Bowl" clearly hasn't spent any time here.

If you are a global warming skeptic (or anthropogenic global warming skeptic), then OK, but it would be respectful to spend some time here before insulting us.

I mean, at least insult us about our actual faults, not the ones you make up. That would require you to spend a little time here first.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-25-05 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. I think this person's purpose is to insult us. It's a frightened little
thing.

Twenty years of listening to oxycotin-crazed draft evading hypocrites with anal cysts and illegal connections to pill doctors through the maid, makes you an expert on offering insults and attempting to divert attention from reality with semi-literate speciousness.

With all due respect PP, I'd just let it spew without comment. I don't think it's capable of say, understanding your comments on the Bayesian problem for instance.

I don't think it understands even the most remote basics about the dust bowl either.

The Repukes are getting a little edgy. More and more people worldwide are aware of the emperor's nakedness.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-25-05 06:56 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. My secret plan is to lure him in and convert him.
Imagine the process of fishing for crabs, with a fish-head tied to a string. I am the fisherman. Or maybe the fish-head.

By the way, you called me "pee-pee" :rofl:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-25-05 10:31 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Oh well, we need PP to get fishheads or fishheads to get PP or PP to get
crabs or crabs to PP or something like that.

It must be the heat. We're getting it here in New Jersey tomorrow.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-26-05 04:44 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-26-05 04:18 AM
Response to Reply #6
13. Chris Landsea?
He's one of Gray's protégés. But that's no secret.

Global warming may be "irrelevant" to them because they are working with decadal meteorological cycles, not overall global termperatures. But as for the "B.S." part, you're just wrong.

Gray's and Landsea's area of expertise is hurricane tracking and prediction, not "megayear" climatology, and certainly not paleoclimatology. I found nothing in a literature search where either of them called work on anthropogenic global warming "B.S.".

Bill Gray, indeed, was a critic of AGW (anthropogenic global warming) but seems to have moderated his criticism in the last 4 or 5 years. His strong public statements appear to have been made mainly from 1998 to about 2001 (but he made no mention of "B.S." or malice). It is worth noting that Gray works with data from the same Thermohaline Circulation that climate change scientists have been monitoring closely. Whatever the man's opinions are about AGW, I would expect him to present the data accurately, as he has always done.

Landsea resigned from a UN commission on climate change for what appeared to be political tensions on "both" sides; it appears that there was some careerism motivating one of the leads, too, rather than a political agenda. But Landsea has actually done scientific work on global warming; in fact, he is considered to be one of the pro-AGW experts, although he is much more conservative about the connection to hurricane formation.

Here's his statement to LiveScience Online:
According to Chris Landsea of NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory, there is evidence for natural swings between high and low hurricane activity that extend for 25-40 years.

“The last ten years have been busy for the U.S. – similar to what we experienced between the 1920s and 1960s,” Landsea said.

He thought that global warming could have an impact on hurricanes, but he quoted one study that predicted in 80 years only a five percent change in wind speeds due to increases in heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

“It doesn’t mean there is zero effect,” he said. “But that’s hardly measurable.”

(Global Warming May Play Role in Hurricane Intensity, Michael Schirber, June 16, 2005.)
The fact that some climatologists and meteorologists disagree with him is to be expected. That's how scientific investigation is conducted. The article I cited, for instance, contains the opinions of several experts who take different points of view. Vive le Difference!

Actually, the same searches turned up hundreds of right-wing blogs and hit pieces from conservative magazines and "think tanks", most of which misrepresented Dr. Landsea as well as some of his critics. They basically took the droplet of gossip from a small academic in-fight and turned it into a political witch trial, which it was not; they got the wrong martyr for the wrong reasons. (And, by the way, I do not consider Dr. Landsea to be a martyr, but a man of integrity.) Once again proving that if you have an interest in scientific research and discovery, you just can't trust the barking-mad Right.

--p!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
stormy1 Donating Member (16 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-26-05 04:51 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. Gray, Landsea and Lindzen, oh my!
Pigwidgeon wrote: "Gray's and Landsea's area of expertise is hurricane tracking and prediction, not "megayear" climatology, and certainly not paleoclimatology. I found nothing in a literature search where either of them called work on anthropogenic global warming "B.S."."

Good point Pigwidgeon...their work is focused on hurricanes....and they both seem to sing from the same sheet of music when global warming and hurricane activity is discussed. If I defer to one climate scientist on the planet regarding global warming, it's Richard Lindzen. Here comes the chorus now, "Sure he's the most knowledgeable climate scientist on the planet, but he received $34 from Exxon Mobil in 1993." Anyone that's seen any of his presentations/congressional testimonies would be hard pressed not to be a skeptic.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Viking12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-26-05 05:08 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. Lindzen signed this statement. Why would you refer to him
for validation of your quackery???

"Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities"
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
stormy1 Donating Member (16 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-26-05 07:42 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. Lindzen, NAS and IPCC
Viking12 wrote: "Lindzen signed this statement. Why would you refer to him: 'Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities'"

Good one Viking! Subsequently, Lindzen wrote an article for the Wall Street Journal <1> (June 11, 2001), which insisted that "there is no consensus, unanimous or otherwise, about long-term climate trends or what causes them" and "we are not in a position to confidently attribute past climate change to carbon dioxide or to forecast what the climate will be in the future."

Additionally, he said; "As usual, far too much public attention was paid to the hastily prepared summary rather than to the body of the report. The summary began with a zinger -- that greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise, etc., before following with the necessary qualifications. For example, the full text noted that 20 years was too short a period for estimating long-term trends, but the summary forgot to mention this."

He had a tendancy to get worked up on the IPCC Policymakers summary and often would provide examples of the policymakers summary basically stating absolutes, while the text of the actual chapters were chock full of "maybes", "could bes" and "we just don't knows." Following the NAS report, he provided a slew of dissenting points...I'm sure we could find them with little effort.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Viking12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-26-05 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. You've only proved my point...
Lindzen's preference to argue science in RW editorials rather than in scientific publications does little for his credibility.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
stormy1 Donating Member (16 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-26-05 08:26 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. Huh?
Viking....how'd I prove your point? This guy has been a member of the IPCC forever and an author of several chapters, all the while being recognized as perhaps the most knowledgeable climate scientist on the planet. Sorry for the long sentence...not much more I can add to that. Later gator...signing off for tonight.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Fri Apr 26th 2024, 11:19 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Environment/Energy Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC