Fukushima update 10AM EST (MIT Nuclear Science and Engineering)

[wtmusic]

"Spraying of spent fuel pools at Units 3 and 4 is still underway. Visual inspection of Unit 4’s pool showed water in the pool, and so efforts have been temporarily focused upon Unit 3. While efforts at using helicopters to dump water onto the pools had been largely unsuccessful , army firetrucks used in putting out aircraft fires have been employed with some success. The elite Tokyo Hyper Rescue component of the Tokyo fire department has arrived on scene and is conducting missions of roughly two hours in length, during which they spray the pools for 7-8 minutes, wait for steam to dissipate, and spray again.

A cable has been laid from a TEPCO power line 1.5 km from the facility, which will be used to supply power to emergency cooling systems of the reactors at Units 1 and 2.

Backup diesel generators have been connected to cool the spent fuel pools at Units 5 and 6. As of 4 PM JST, temperatures in those pools have reached 65.5 and and 62 degrees Celsius."

http://mitnse.com/

[MineralMan]

1. It sounds like some of the measures are showing some success

in lowering the risk. That's a good thing. Let's hope the trend continues and the threat continues to be lowered. That's the scenario we all want to see, I hope.

[drm604]

3. It's encouraging that they seem to be having some success getting water into the spent fuel pools.

Those seemed to be a huge stumbling block.

[kristopher]

7. If you were in training for a job and saw it threatened, what would you do?

Evaluation of the validity of the information at this site should take into account these facts:

The groups is not hosted by MIT. The blog is not an MIT product. (See quote below)

The group has already engaged in activity that casts a great deal of doubt on their integrity.
http://geniusnow.com/2011/03/15/the-strange-case-of-josef-oehmen/

They attempt damage control.
http://mitnse.com/2011/03/13/modified-version-of-original-post/

The links provided by the group takes you not to MIT validated information, but to blogs created, hosted and operated by two Public Relations entities serving the for profit global nuclear energy industry. (See quote below)

There is a direct conflict of interest with significant potential to create bias present since the future careers of these students are directly threatened by the events at Fukushima.


This is the ABOUT statement from the blog directing readers to public relations outlets for the nuclear energy industry.

Our mission at the MIT Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering is to help develop the next generation of technical leaders of the global nuclear enterprise and to provide technical leadership in energy and non-energy applications of nuclear technology. We also have a responsibility to inform public debates on the wise uses of nuclear science and technology.

Purpose of this Blog

This is a blog written by the students of MIT’s Nuclear Science and Engineering department, with the support of our faculty. It is hosted outside of MIT’s domain name because of the established infrastructure at WordPress.com and due to the incredibly large traffic we were expecting and have seen so far. Please consult our official website http://web.mit.edu/nse/ and see the link under Headlines if you are concerned about the credibility.

The purpose of this blog is not to provide up-to-date information about the ongoing situation at the nuclear facilities in Fukushima, Japan, nor is it to promote to a pro-nuclear political agenda. Rather, we are trying to provide non-sensationalized, factual data from engineers in a manner that the general public can understand. We are fighting to decipher conflicting news reports and manage the frustrating lack of clarity to provide this information. Also, please understand that we are full time students, busy writing theses, going to classes, and completing homework assignments, so these updates may be somewhat behind those of the media outlets.

For truly up-to-date information, we encourage you to view websites such as http://ansnuclearcafe.org/ which has a compilation of news stories from the media outlets. The website at http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/ has fairly reliable information as well.

Former NRC Commissioner Bradford has characterized the efforts of the nuclear industry's PR campaign as being aimed at convincing the public of 6 "myths".

Since all are not only demonstrably untrue and lack any support at all in science, I call them deliberate lies.

1. nuclear power is cheap;
2. learning and new standardized designs solve all past problems;
3. the waste problem is a non-problem, especially if we’d follow the lead of many other nations and “recycle” our spent fuel;
4. climate change makes a renaissance inevitable; 5. there are no other large low-carbon “baseload” alternatives;
6. there’s no particular reason to worry that a rapidly expanding global industry will put nuclear power and weapons technologies in highly unstable nations, often nations with ties to terrorist organizations.

[PamW]

12. The blog IS an MIT product...

The groups is not hosted by MIT. The blog is not an MIT product. (See quote below)
=================

As an MIT alumna, I received an e-mail this past week from Professor Richard Lester who is the chairman of Course XXII, the MIT Nuclear Science and Engineering Department:

Dear Alums and Friends of NSE,

As the devastating events in Japan unfold, we send our sympathy and condolences to our Japanese students, alumni, friends, and colleagues. The great courage and fortitude of the Japanese people will serve them well in this terrible crisis, and we wish them only the very best as they struggle to cope with the multitude of body blows of the last few days....

In NSE we have been focusing on efforts to provide accurate, clear information about the crisis affecting the Fukushima nuclear reactors. The demand for such information is very great around the world, and providing it is one thing we can do. On Tuesday we held a technical briefing on the situation for more than 450 members of the MIT community. You can read a summary of the issues discussed here and there is also a video of the event.

In addition, NSE students, with support from our faculty, are maintaining a technical information blog at mitnse.com. The goal is to provide non-sensationalized, factual data from engineers in a manner that can be understood by the general public. This is difficult work given the scarcity of reliable information, and I am very proud indeed of the outstanding service that our students are performing...


As Professor Lester points out, the blog is authored by the students, but is reviewed by the Course XXII faculty and that Professor Lester is proud of the work that the students are doing.

As Professor Lester explained, and also contained within kristopher's own quote, the blog is
hosted outside the mit.edu domain due to concern about the volume of traffic.

Since the MIT faculty is "blessing" the output of the blog, then I consider this an MIT "product" as much as any other MIT "product". It's a product not just of the students but of the faculty and the Chairman of the Department that covers the relevant field of study is "proud" of the efforts of the students.

PamW

[kristopher]

14. So you are saying the faculty stands behind deception?

Judging from their cost estimates in their 2003 study that just doesn't surprise me.

The blog is NOT an MIT product.

[godai]

2. Some good news for 5 and 6.

There would be no boiling (water loss) at those temperatures.

[Throckmorton]

9. No evaporation is a factor at these temperatures

as well as local hot spots on the newer fuel. Most Spent Fuel Pools have Technical Specification limits that are less than 35 degrees C, at least all of the ones I have ever dealt with.

The will need a lot more makeup water at these temperature.

[FBaggins]

11. They have pumps working in those two units.

As I understand it, they're sharing a single generator, so there's a risk, but no assumed lack of water.

I think that #4 was damaged by the explosion at #3... possibly damaging the side of the pool and limiting the amount of water it could hold. This obviously isn't an issue at 5&6.

[Turbineguy]

4. Good news.

Baby steps.

[FBaggins]

5. Useful link in there to a PDF of radiation levels in the surrounding areas.

And I don't think you even need to update Acrobat for a foreign language.

[CRH]

6. I have a question on the linked MIT radiation data, ...

According to the MIT charts for yesterday, in the 30 KM range from the Fukushima plant the highest readings were in the 150 - 170 uSI range.

So is this accurate, - if one assumes the worst of 170 uSI, it would take approximately 6 hours standing in the same place to receive 1 mSI.

The first symptoms of radiation poisoning appear in the range of 250 mSI/yr and progress in severity to 1000 mSI or 1 SI/yr. Though this dose is not considered lethal, it still represents significant illness.

At the rate of 1 mSI for 6 hours or 4 mSI per day, the accumulation in 63 days would likely bring mild symptoms, and in 8 months a person would be very ill.

Three to four years at this level untreated, for many, would be fatal.

So if these readings are from the longer lasting isotopes like cesium 137 and Iodine 131, after the decay of the short lived radionuclides, in essence the worst locations of this 30 KM area are uninhabitable, without serious cleanup.

And, this is if it all stops now, no more explosions or venting, and the wind does not change directions. Is this close to correct, in the ball park.

[wtmusic]

8. The radiation for Chernobyl dropped 90% in 100 days

As you can see from this logarithmic plot, however, 27 years later it's still very much present

[Statistical]

10. Radiation levels won't remain static because short lived isotopes make up majority of the yield.

While we don't know the composition of the isotopes releases if the exposure is at 0.170mSv it is unrealistic to expect that all or most of it is from long lived isotopes. Longer lived isotopes generally have shorter decay energy and due to their longer half lives have less decays per second. Short lived isotopes have higher decay energy. This is compounded by the fact that short lived isotopes have more decays per second. So you have an exponential weighting towards shorter isotopes.

Lets assume (since we lack any specifics) that the 0.17mSv activity if coming from a mix of isotopes with similar composition as spent fuel. Activity would decay 90% after 3 months, 95% after 1 year, and 99% after 5 years.

Caution: I am not saying that the isotopes released definitely have a composition similar to spent fuel. Just providing some context as to how radiation level decay is "front loaded". The drop off is very quick initially and then the rate of decrease slows.

[CRH]

15. So the isotopes measuring in the recorded levels, ...

are still mixed with short lived isotopes, and actual long lasting air born contamination should be much less?

Is air born contamination subject to the forces of gravity? What is air born today might rest on the soil surface tomorrow, so air measurements might tell only part of the story?

[flamingdem]

13. "Visual inspection" ?? How did they exactly do that inspection, from those

videos that showed a tiny glint?

My analysis (not informed but intuitive)

US was right no water in spent fuel pools in No. 4

They abandoned that to meltdown because it's not salvageable

They are focused on No. 3 because the MOX rods melt at a lower temperature
AND they contain plutonium

Just my 3 yen

[FBaggins]

16. "They abandoned that (pool at #4) to meltdown because it's not salvageable"

And when does your intuition tell you that we should start seeing the imact of this "not salvageable" situation?

Been a few days of "no water" if that were true... how long does it take this stuff to degrade/meltdown/burn?

Reported radiation levels are way too low for there to be exposed rods sitting in an open pool. They also haven't detected really high levels of zirconium either. That would necessarily be the first thing to go in a pool fire.

[CRH]

17. You could be right, but I don't think so for one reason, ...

It would seem if the pond at #4 was abandoned as a lost cause, and the spent rods were in a stage of further decay, that plant radiation readings would be increasing. However, the opposite has been happening. So either the readings have been fudged or there has been some success with maintaining some water.

Then again, I have not seen any new footage of #4, of the steam, smoke, or the lack thereof, since the new war has diverted all of the news coverage to cruise missiles. For now, we can only rely on what we are being told. As the weather shifts, if there is indeed an increasing radiation problem for the Japanese mainland, it will be very hard to disguise. Time will tell, soon.