Edit: radioactive cesium and iodine emissions from Fukushima now 50% and 20% of Chernobyl

[jpak]

http://blogs.nature.com/news/thegreatbeyond/2011/03/first_estimates_of_radioactive.html

The amount of the long-lived radioactive isotope cesium-137, and the shorter-lived iodine-131, which have already escaped from the troubled Fukushima power plant in Japan may be significant, approaching emissions of these isotopes from the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The estimates come from Austria's weather service, the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics in Vienna.

Fukushima is no Chernobyl, however, cautions Gerhard Wotawa, a researcher at the centre involved in the study. Crucially, he points out, only a few highly volatile elements, such as iodine, cesium and xenon, have escaped from the Fukushima plant, whereas at Chernobyl the greater damage to the core caused substantial quantities of many other less-volatile isotopes to be released, leading to far higher total radiation levels. It was also "good luck" that prevailing wind patterns pushed much of the radioactive cesium out over the Pacific Ocean away from land, he notes. Even on the days when wind blew material inland, rain close to the plant quickly washed out radioactive material. Little of the plume reached Tokyo, he says, noting also that reported radioactive dose levels in the affected area beyond the immediate area of the plant are low, and falling.

The model's results were calculated by inputing measurements of radioisotope levels at different distances from the plant and then modelling weather patterns and other factors to estimate the amounts released at the source. This model run used measurements of radioisotopes in detector stations in Takasaki in Japan and in Sacramento, California, part of a sophisticated global network of stations created to monitor for nuclear weapons tests – the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (see my long article last week about the CTBTO network's role in responding to the accident).

The researchers estimate that 3x10^15 becquerels of Cs-137 (which has a half-life of 30 years) were released during the first two days following the disaster on 11 March. A further 3x10^16 was released over the next two days, totalling 50% of the Cs-137 emitted in the Chernobyl accident. 4x10^17 becquerels of I-131, with a half-life of 8 days, were likely released over the same period, roughly 20% of I-131 released from Chernobyl. Wotawa says he was "surprised at the cesium levels, but less so with respect to iodine, as its highly volatile."

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[Demeter]

1. So Far

as estimated.

Consider it a minimum, folks, and stay tuned.

[bananas]

2. k&r nt

[Peace Patriot]

3. "...pushed much of the radioactive cesium out over the Pacific Ocean..."

"...pushed much of the radioactive cesium out over the Pacific Ocean...".

"...rain close to the plant quickly washed out radioactive material....".

--from para 2, above

-----------------------------------

Why do we casually write off sea life, including what are most probably sentient creatures, the Dolphins, as if it were garbage?

Yes, I'm glad humans got a favorable wind. I can't help it. My heart hurts for the Japanese and I cheer any break they can get. Still...

We MUST deal with this attitude that the world is our trash bin. As long as we can shove it out to sea, fine. No matter that it's antibiotics, or medical waste, or feces, or masses of plastic, or oil, or toxic fertilizers...or radioactive cesium! It's fine if it blows out to sea, if it's in the ocean; the ocean will cleanse all. Not.

The reality is that gravely serious dead zones have developed in the oceans. And ocean coral reefs--the "canaries in the coal mine" of coastal areas--are dying. These are rich islands of life. They're bleaching and dying at an alarming rate. And that's just some of the alarm signs.

Where does the "rain" go to, in the second sentence? The rain "washed" the radioactive material "out." ??

Yes, when you're in a war--and Fukusihima is a war, with a highly dangerous substance that we never should have released into the world--you can't think very far. Your concerns are very immediate-- saving lives including your own.

But this Austrian scientist is not there, in that war, trying to save lives (or, as far as I know, he isn't). He should think about these things. We all should. Is the problem "solved" because it washed out into the Pacific Ocean? What does it affect there, and for how long? What are the cumulative effects of this and all the other human-made pollution? Where does the rain go?

The earth is all one ecological system. We need to see it as one whole organism--not as one part habitable and the other part our garbage dump. We cannot do that any more. It is killing the planet. We MUST look to the 3rd, 4th, 5th and further stages that our actions initiate. And, as to creating radioactivity for our energy needs, with the casual notion that we can "wash it out to sea" if it gets out of hand, we've got to back that one up, to the initial decision. What is this horribly toxic, horribly volatile and combustible, human-made stuff DOING in one of the highest earthquake zones on the planet--not to mention six of these nuke plants packed together on one site, housed with their spent fuel rods (high fire danger)?

Scientists should be helping us think this through all the way, so that better decisions will be made--instead of downplaying the danger of this stuff, cuz the wind was lucky for humans and the rain washed it "out".

[thereismore]

4. The difference has been that Chernobyl is landlocked. It was a no-win situation

with the wind.