I don't want to call his best guess a prediction because that has different connotations.
Here's an excerpt from the transcript where he gives his best guess as to the outcome,
this may or may not be based on the erroneous radiation readings given out yesterday:
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1103/27/sotu.01.html<snip>
CIRINCIONE: The best case is that these cores sort of melt down or partially melt down, it's all contained in these concrete boxes, basically. And then over the period of years, you would -- you have a slow period of cooling of this radioactive mess.
The worst case is that as they completely melt down and they punch through, they breach through the concrete walls, spilling radioactive lava on to the beach, on to the surrounding area, spreading radioactivity over tens or hundreds of square kilometers.
CROWLEY: I know that the information has been frustrating to people like you coming out of Japan, not knowing exactly what is coming, but can you give me your best guess as how this ends?
CIRINCIONE: My best guess is that there is going to be a bigger breach than we've already seen, and we suspect there are breaches in number two and number three reactors, and that there will be a bigger breach that will force the evacuation. and we'll see, I think, at least two core meltdowns and possibly two, maybe more, pool fires. And it will end very, very badly.
That's what I actually think is going to happen. I hope I'm wrong. I hope they contain it. This will take weeks or months in the best case to contain it, to keep that radioactivity in these concrete boxes.
And in the end, two, three, four years from now, we're going to have concrete and sand mounds, sarcophagi, on each of these reactors dotting the Japanese shoreline. That's going to be a monument that no one really wants to see.
<snip>
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