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In Russia, the progression from larch to conifer is particularly troublesome, researchers say, because it will promote additional warming and vegetation change in the region.
Larch trees drop their needles in the fall, allowing the vast, snow-covered ground in winter to reflect sunlight and heat back into space and helping to keep temperatures in the region very cold. But conifers such as spruce and fir retain their needles, which absorb sunlight and increase the forest's ground-level heat retention.
This, researchers say, creates ideal conditions for the proliferation of evergreens to the detriment of larch. "What we're seeing is the system kicking into overdrive," said University of Virginia environmental sciences professor Hank Shugart in a statement. "Warming creates more warming." Shugart is co-author of a study assessing this feedback, to be published in the journal Global Change Biology.
The researchers used a climate model to assess the impact if evergreens continued their march northward at the expense of leaf-dropping larch. The Russian boreal forest sits over a tremendous repository of carbon-rich but frozen soil. As the forest cover changes, the permafrost begins to thaw, potentially releasing huge quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, the scientist said. "Such changes in that vast region have the potential to affect areas outside that region," said Jacquelyn Shuman, a post-doctoral researcher at the university and the study's lead author.
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http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2011/03/boreal-shift