Prolonged nuclear crisis carries big risks for Japan economy

[phantom power]

even if a catastrophic nuclear meltdown is averted, a drawn-out battle to stabilise the earthquake-crippled Fukushima plant poses a serious risk to an economy already burdened with huge public debt, an ageing population and a big bill to rebuild from a quake and tsunami disaster that caused damages possibly topping $300 billion.

"What is the worst-case scenario? Most people think it's a mushroom cloud. But the worst-case scenario is that this drags on, not one month or two months or six months, but for two years, or indefinitely," said Jesper Koll, director of equity research at JPMorgan Securities in Tokyo. "Japan will be bypassed. That is the real nightmare scenario."

...

A prolonged lack of clarity would add to pressure on Japanese firms to shift production overseas while further decreasing the attraction of Japan as an investment destination for foreign companies, already put off by the spectre of earthquakes, a strong yen and a sluggish economy.

The hollowing-out of Japan's economy has already seen overseas production rise to 20 percent of total output from 6 percent over the past two decades.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/03/30/uk-japan-nuclear-impact-idUKLNE72T02R20110330

[GliderGuider]

1. China and S. Korea are going to make out like bandits from this.

Or perhaps like vultures, picking the bones of Japan's industrial trade. At he very least other countries will be mitigating risks by geographically diversifying their supply chains.

Japan's day in the global economic sun may be over.

[jwirr]

2. The number of reactors that went down is enough to hurt their economy

because it cuts the amount of energy they can produce to manufacture the items they have in the past.

[applegrove]

3. We had a SARS outbreak in ontario and it devastated many businesses in Toronto.

vibes to all those in Japan dealing with devastation and trying to rebuild.

[Fledermaus]

4. Chernobyl certainly didn't help the USSR. Probably helped bring it to an end.