Katrina Update - National Hurricane Center - First Post 8/26 5:00 EDT

[hatrack]

She seems to be shifting more to the west . . .

EDIT

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES... WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
...MAJOR... HURRICANE TODAY AND(sic) ON SATURDAY.

EDIT

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 81 MPH WITH A
GUST TO 105 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS C-MAN STATION LOCATED
IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE
ARE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...WHILE WIND
GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER FLORIDA KEYS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/262038.shtml

3-day tracking map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205300.shtml?3day?large

[ewagner]

1. Just talked to a

meteorology type who sat in with his collegues

Their consensus?

Following the cone is quite the prudent thing to do. Truth is, we still have no clue as to where this storm is going right now, just based solely off of the spread in the guidance and how it keeps changing around, so everyone needs to watch this one closely. Truthfully, after a long day, that's about all I can say about it right now.

We'll have to wait and see.

PS the guy quoted above knows what he's doing.....

[jpak]

2. Packing up the computer

Securing the lab

and off to the liquor store.

Dammit I hate this shit....

[NNadir]

3. Now a category 3, possibly to become a 4.

"THE EYE HAS BECOME CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN
GOES-12 INFRARED IMAGERY. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE INDICATES THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING... MOST RECENTLY MEASURED AT
945 MB. WHILE SUCH A LOW PRESSURE IS TYPICAL OF SOME CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANES... THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT YET
EXCEEDED 104 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 95 KT AT THE SURFACE.
GIVEN THE FALLING PRESSURE... AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 100 TO 115 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE
INCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS GROWN IN SIZE... WHICH PERHAPS EXPLAINS WHY THE MAXIMUM
WINDS HAVE NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE INITIAL
AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY...

...KATRINA IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMINGLY CANNOT GET MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING... PRIMARILY DUE TO A VERY LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...

[progressive_realist]

12. Katrina has a very good chance of being a 5 by the time it lands.

The water temperatures in the eastern and northern Gulf areas are at record or near-record highs. Computer models tend to be less accurate when dealing with previously unencountered parameters; usually they underestimate the results at the extremes in order to avoid making wild predictions. But these are near-perfect hurricane strengthening conditions. Notice this section from the NOAA discussion:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/271450.shtml?

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO AS THE
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL COMPLETES AND SOME RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SHEAR
AFFECTS THE STORM. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN A LIGHT
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH 125 KT IN 48 HR AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 120 KT GFDL...THE 126 KT GFDN...THE 127 KT SHIPS...AND
THE 132 KT FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 STATUS AT SOME
POINT BEFORE LANDFALL.

[phantom power]

13. Yep. Hot water, light shear. Not a good combination.

[hatrack]

4. 8/27 8:00 AM EDT Katrina 180 W. Key West Max Sustained 115 940 Mb

EDIT

T 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 180 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS BECOME A LARGER HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 940 MB...27.91 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/271146.shtml

Tracking map 5:00 AM EDT 8/27 - looks like Lousiana and the Gulf oil zone now. Get ready for another hit at the gas pump next week - my money's on $70 a barrel by Wednesday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/085817.shtml?3day?large

[NNadir]

6. For some time, the destruction of New Orleans has been predicted.

The track looks like it's dead on center to strike that city.

[hatrack]

7. Yeah, but these tracks do shift around quite a bit

OTOH, a large city that sits (A) below the level of the Mississippi River and (B) below the level of a large neighboring lake is not the place you want to be at a time like this.

[NNadir]

8. Nevertheless, inevitable.

It's pretty clear to me that the Atlantic Ocean is now seething with heat. Moreover, the trend WILL continue year after year, indefinitely. Sea level will rise even higher when compared to New Orleans, glaciers WILL melt, and New Orleans WILL be destroyed, if not this week, then sometime in the NEAR future.

[NNadir]

9. I am corrected: How destruction of NO by Gilbert was stopped.

Hurricanes in New Orleans are indeed preventable:

http://www.quicktopic.com/22/H/kbjQTYsrB8C9

[phantom power]

10. Maybe we can get this guy to make electricity for us, too.

[phantom power]

11. The existence of a city below sea level, AND right on the ocean...

seems fundamentally unsustainable :-)

[Massacure]

5. Interesting graphics with oil platforms I posted in a General Discussion:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4471968&mesg_id=4471968

[hatrack]

14. 8/27 1:00 PM CDT Katrina 230 W. Key West Max Sust 115 949 Mb

EDIT

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 230
MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/271738.shtml?

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO AS THE
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL COMPLETES AND SOME RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SHEAR
AFFECTS THE STORM. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN A LIGHT
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH 125 KT IN 48 HR AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 120 KT GFDL...THE 126 KT GFDN...THE 127 KT SHIPS...AND
THE 132 KT FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 STATUS AT SOME
POINT BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD AFFECT KATRINA STARTING AT 48 HR...AND AS
ALWAYS HAPPENS IN HURRICANE OF THIS INTENSITY ADDITIONAL CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/271450.shtml

Strike Probability Map - 8:00 AM 8/27

[phantom power]

15. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance (Katrina)

The Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunters made some interesting observations Saturday morning. Just before 5 a.m., small hail was observed in the southeast quadrant at a height of roughly 8000-9000 feet. Around 11 a.m. EDT, concentric eyewalls (meaning two of them, one inside another) were witnessed.

[NNadir]

16. Strong Category 4:

WTNT42 KNHC 280617
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF HURRICANE KATRINA. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 137
KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 125 KT AT
THE SURFACE. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE
AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED 125 KT
MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP
UNTIL LANDFALL HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED UPWARD TO 130 KT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT KATRINA COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND PERHAPS
EVEN REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FORECASTER KNABB


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/280617.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/060711F120_sm.gif

That 90% Tropical storm force wind area ends right over 'Nawlins.

Maybe it's time to say goodbye Old City.

[NNadir]

17. Strong Category 5: Hard to miss the global climate change angle.

Hurricane KATRINA Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Strike Probs Wind Probs Maps/Chrts Archive

UPDATE US Watch/Warning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WTNT42 KNHC 281204
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF
KATRINA TO CATEGORY FIVE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 153 KNOTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 140 KNOTS.
OBVIOUSLY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW STRONG KATRINA WILL BE AT
LANDFALL. WE HAVE VERY LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING THIS.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO BE A DEVASTING CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE AT
LANDFALL.

NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/281204.shtml

One 53 knots is 176 miles per hour, 284 km s^-1. Most telling is the speed in m/s, 79 m/s. Objects caught in that wind will be travel 80% of a football field in one second. Given that these things can be trees, road signs, parts of broken buildings - well there is some horror to be imagined here.

That hurricanes this strong are becoming routine over extraordinarily warm seas, that the season is extraordinarily fecund, all this suggest that the consequences of global climate change are lurching to their inevitable conclusion.

My heart goes out to the inevitable victims.

[phantom power]

18. 175 mph is a good, solid F3 tornado. 50 miles wide.

Hurricane winds out 90 miles from the center. That's like saying an F1-tornado, 180 miles in diameter, and getting worse closer to the center.

I wonder if the meteorologists were predicting this, in private. It's hard for me to believe that they wouldn't suspect, knowing the record-breaking water temperatures.


Edit: It's not symmetric, so it's more like an F1 tornado 130 miles in diameter.

[NNadir]

23. As I recall, you predicted us some weeks ago from water temps.

You said something along the lines that the next storm would be a doozy.

[phantom power]

25. I did predict that. The hurricane experts seemed reluctant.

I suppose that if you are in that business, it's a no-win situation. If you predict a monster storm, and it doesn't arrive, you lose credibility, and you may have caused an expensive evacuation for no reason. If you fail to predict it, people are unprepared.

Wind-shear seems to be very important, and harder to anticipate than water temps. If there had been strong wind-shear in the gulf, Katrina might not have intensified the way it did.

But it seemed inevitable. If not Katrina, then some other storm would blunder onto that hot water, with the right conditions. For that matter, there's no reason to think Katrina will be the last, although we can expect that surface temps will be lower after this storm, at least for a while.

[NNadir]

27. Whether it was from freedom to speak your mind or not, you called it.

You get a gold star.

I think too, this is very clearly a function of climate changes, not that this will prevent all sorts of silly spinning by the global climate deniers.

[phantom power]

29. It's clearly climate change. Which makes another prediction easy:

hurriane seasons like this are the new normal. And that has all kinds of bad implications for anybody living near the southern atlantic.

[hatrack]

19. 8/28 10 AM CDT Katrina 225 SSE Delta: Max Sustained Winds 175 907 Mb

EDIT

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES.

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/281443.shtml

Strike probability map does not look good:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/151733.shtml?prob?large

Tracking map also alarming:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/151733.shtml?3day?large

[NNadir]

21. It will still be a tropical storm in Tennessee, a depression in Ohio.

Impressive.

[amandabeech]

20. Too bad that the storm isn't moving much further west before making

landfall. I would like to see all the moisture pour into the plains and western Midwest to help break the drought and replenish the Missouri river reservoirs. No such luck, it seems. At least those barges on the Ohio will refloat.

How long before the Port of New Orleans will be up and running for either oil and gas or grain?

[NNadir]

24. Here's the drought monitor

Here's the path:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W_sm2+gif/151733W_sm.gif

Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee will get the most help with rain, if it holds up like this.

[Dogmudgeon]

22. It's moving slow and strengthening fast

This morning at 4 AM EDT, it became a Cat 4, with sustained winds at 135 mph. Six or seven hours later, it was upgraded to Cat 5 at 155 mph. Now it's at 175, and it's only 8 hours later.

I don't recall ever seeing a hurricane strengthen so fast. Am I correct, or am I just succumbing to the hurricane frenzy?

The track of the storm also shows it taking its time moving through Louisiana and Mississippi; it won't pick up speed much before early Tuesday morning. So it's going to have a lot of opportunity to wring itself out over the lower Mississippi delta.

--p!

[phantom power]

26. There was another famous cat-5 that strengthened very fast,

and hit florida. It also changed direction unexpectedly. I keep forgetting the name. It was some years ago, and hurricane models are better now.

[hatrack]

28. 8/28 4:00 PM CDT Katrina 150 S. Of Delta 165 Max Sustained 902 Mb

EDIT

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY
FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.

KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. SOUTHWEST
PASS...NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 53 MPH.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
902 MB...26.64 INCHES.

EDIT

Strike probability map continues to look really, really sucky.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205423.shtml?prob?large

3-day tracking outlook also beginning to look really grim:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205423.shtml?3day?large

Good luck to us all!

[hatrack]

30. 8/20 10:00 PM CDT Katrina 105 S Delta Max Sustained 160 904 Mb

EDIT

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES
SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 170 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
ALREADY DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA
IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT EITHER CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE
INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. A WIND GUST TO 90 MPH WAS
RECENTLY REPORTED FROM SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 904 MB...26.70 INCHES. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE
CENTER OF KATRINA VERY SHORTLY.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/290250.shtml

[NNadir]

31. The roof of the superdome has holes opening.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050829/ap_on_re_us/katrina_superdome

"NEW ORLEANS - Hurricane Katrina ripped away part of the roof on the Louisiana Superdome as thousands of storm refugees huddled inside Monday.

Strips of metal were peeled away, creating two holes that were visible from the floor of the huge arena. Water dripped in and people were moved away from about five sections of seats directly below.

Others watched as sheets of metal flapped visibly and noisily. From the floor, more than 19 stories below the dome, the openings appeared to be 6 feet long."

[phantom power]

32. Sounds like New Orleans lucked out again...

sort of. Still standing, anyway.

[phantom power]

33. "once-in-a-lifetime storm"

Calling it a once-in-a-lifetime storm, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin had ordred a mandatory evacuation for the 480,000 residents of the vulnerable city, and he estimated about 80 percent heeded the call.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/hurricane_katrina

These people still don't get it. They could easily get hit with another storm just like Katrina before this season is over. For that matter, a slow-moving tropical storm with a ton of rain could just as easily break their levies.