The Katrina Crisis (Daniel Yergin - not good)

[jpak]

http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110007204

A hurricane produces an integrated energy disaster.

BY DANIEL YERGIN

Man's technical ingenuity has collided with nature's rage in the Gulf of Mexico, and the outcome has been an integrated energy disaster. The full scope will not be understood until the waters recede, the damage to platforms and refineries is assessed, and the extent of damage to underwater pipelines from undersea mudslides is determined. Yet what has happened is on a scale not seen before, and the impact of the price spikes and dislocations will roll across the entire economy. Even as we confront the human tragedy, the consequences will also force us to think more expansively about energy security, and to focus harder on a matter which other events have already emphasized: the need for new infrastructure and investment in our energy sector.

What makes it an integrated crisis is that the entire energy supply system in the region has been disabled, and that the parts all depend upon each other for recovery. If the next weeks reveal that the losses are as large as some fear, this would constitute one of the biggest energy shocks since the 1970s, perhaps even the biggest. Unlike the crises of the '70s or the Persian Gulf crisis of 1990-91, this does not involve just crude oil: It includes natural gas, refineries and electricity.

The 1.5 million barrels of oil production capacity that has been "shut in"--closed down--is much less than was lost to the market when Saddam invaded Kuwait. But although it has received less attention, 16% of U.S. natural gas is also shut in; and 10% of our refining capacity is under water at a time when there is no slack at all in the world's refining system. The electric and natural gas distribution system in the region has also been knocked out.

All of this has a knock-on effect: Boats can't get out to the platforms without diesel fuel; and refineries can't operate without electricity or people. Those last two are the preamble to recovery. With communications broken down, companies are still trying to make contact with the missing employees who run the different parts of the energy infrastructure. As for electricity, a frontline manager summed up the problem: "You can't overemphasize the absolute enormity of the undertaking to put this place back together again."

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[Dogmudgeon]

1. And please note --

Daniel Yergin is an optimist about oil supplies.

He's probably the only non-toady who is. So when he gets glum, that is an occasion for sobriety and vigilance.

--p!

[bemildred]

2. The problem with centralized systems, any centralized system, is

that they create single points of failure. Distributed and
localized architectures are more robust, more adaptive and
adaptable and more efficient. It is no accident that the
architecture of the Internet is highly distributed and lacking
in points of central control, it has no inherent bottlenecks
and scales up extremely well.

It is no accident that ecological systems are extremely complex
and distributed as well, for the same reasons of efficiency,
adaptability, and scaleability.

As Einstein said, reality is local.

Unfortunately, distributed control does not support the sort
of monopoly capitalist profit skimming that the Amurkan ruling
class is fond of.

So we get screwed,

[Massacure]

3. The Internet does have a central point.

Each computer on the Internet is set up so that it can operate with the minimum information necessary to get to another computer. However if the central point is taken down, the Internet will end up isolating itself into serveral different parts.

[bemildred]

5. Sorry, no, it does not.

The closest things are DNS root servers and major backbones,
but they are all far from unique, or even limited in number.
You can have as many as you like, and if one goes down, life
continues as always, possibly a bit slower in some situations.

This is not to say that some local portion of the internet
cannot be configured with a central hub, for a small net that
can even make sense, and particular services and protocols may
be set up in a naive way, but the Internet has no such thing.

Edit: if you want to continue this discussion, first point out
what feature of the Internet is unique and "central", "a hub".

[NNadir]

4. Um crisis? Don't we just whip out 4,807,526,976 PV cells and

12,586,269,025 rechargable batteries?

Why such anxiety?

[jpak]

6. or maybe a couple hundred famous nonexistent pebble bed reactors

easy as pie

[BeFree]

7. Scary, huh?

Don't be scared. It's full of misleading pipelines. Note that the loss of Iraq's oil was even more of a burden upon the system, yet we made it through.

Yeah, it took a hit. But electricity is soon to be restored - powerlines are not rocket science, nor is the effort to put back pipelines an unknown endeavor.

Think about this: many cars in the damaged region are immobile and not using gas. Nor are the houses using electricity. You might call it forced conservation.

Before you get on your high horse and start yelling at me, consider the vast array of refineries, pipelines and powerlines across this country. And remember the energy companies have a lot of cash on hand to finance the repairs, and as long as the systems are down they lose money.

It won't be long before everything energy wise will be back to normal. Except for the price gouging.