Tropical Trifecta

[phantom power]

Woohoo! We hit the trifecta! :woohoo:



Two tropical storms and a hurricane are churning in the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Depression 16 formed over the northwestern Bahamas east of Miami Tuesday morning and has since strengthened to Tropical Storm Ophelia. This is the 15th tropical storm of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season and is the earliest on record that 15 tropical storms/hurricanes have formed. Ophelia has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is drifting northwest at 3 mph. The storm is expected to strengthen slowly and continue drifting toward the NNW over the next couple of days. Tropical storm warnings remain posted from Sebastian Inlet to Flagler Beach along the east coast of Florida. In addition, tropical storm watches are in effect from Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach. All interests along the Southeast Coast should monitor the progress of Ophelia closely.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Nate has become a hurricane (80 mph) and continues to drift slowly south of Bermuda. Nate is expected to strengthen further and turn to a northeasterly track Thursday threatening Bermuda as a category 1 hurricane. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch have been posted for the island. Farther east, Tropical Storm Maria (65 mph) will weaken further as it continues to plow northeastward through the open waters of the central Atlantic. Maria is expected to transition to a powerful mid-latitude storm by the end of the week, churning northeastward between Ireland and the southern tip of Greenland early next week.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news

[NNadir]

1. Now it's becoming just a little scary.

"OPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IT
APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THAT OPHELIA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT
OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE
UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST...RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT MAKING THE
FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE GFDL AND THE ECMWF BRING THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS PROBABLY
THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/071436.shtml?

[phantom power]

2. Super. Stationary isn't so hot either.

It could sit next to florida and dump rain.

[NNadir]

3. ...and suck up heat, and power.

[phantom power]

7. And so it goes

Ophelia strengthening

2:50 p.m. ET 9/8/2005
Matthew Newman and M. Ressler, Sr. Meteorologists, The Weather Channel

Nearing the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, there are three active systems - two hurricanes and a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Ophelia, now with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, is meandering just off the east coast of Florida. It is going nowhere fast; remaining nearly stationary. While it festers in the warm waters off of Florida, Ophelia is expected to strengthen even more under minimal shear over the next few days and could become a hurricane at almost any time. Without any definitive steering currents aloft, the forecast calls for Ophelia to drift ever-so-slowly northeastward off the coast of northeast Florida and Georgia. Tropical storm warnings remain posted from Cocoa Beach to Flagler Beach, and a tropical storm watch is in effect from Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach. Heavy surf, rip currents and squally weather will continue to lash parts of northeast and east-central coastal Florida right into the weekend. Already, winds at Port Canaveral have gusted as high as 52 mph. Some coastal showers could inch northward into Georgia and the Carolinas this weekend.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news

[NNadir]

8. Ophelia plays Hamlet.

Indecisive baby isn't she?

Can't decide if she wants to a storm or a hurricane.

Can't decide where she wants to go or how she wants to go there.



Hey, if it hits New Jersey, I should update my emergency equipment and kits. We certainly don't want to rely on Brownie and Mike at a time like that.

I have understood from my reading here - which is not to say that I believe it - that the most important emergency items can be obtained at a liquor store.

[phantom power]

9. I'll say one thing for boozin' as a disaster strategy...

you may not hurt less, but you'll care less! :beer:

[NNadir]

10. Not in my case. I have kids.

Everything - and I do mean everything - I say on this website is informed by my responsibility to them.

[phantom power]

11. Having children changes a lot of things.

I didn't just become more responsible. I got more sentimental. Or maybe it wasn't sentimental, it was more empathetic. It was a strange experience that I wasn't expecting.

I'm pretty certain that my reaction to Katrina is different than it would have been if it had happened prior to becoming a parent. Hearing stories about parents and children, suffering and dying, has been gut-wrenching. I don't think I would have reacted with the same intensity in my bachelor days.

My fears about the coming planetary train-wreck have similarly become more visceral. Our children didn't ask for the nightmare we're about to bequeath to them, but they're sure gonna live through it anyway.

[NNadir]

12. I'm with you.

My wife and I often reflect that our boys were born during the Clinton administration.

It was such a hopeful time. It's hard to believe we've fallen so far so quickly.

[H5N1]

4. I have never heard of a stationary hurricane, is this uncommon?

[phantom power]

5. They sometimes "stall" for a few days. Do a little random walk.

[NNadir]

6. Jeanne did this last year and then smashed Florida.

It circled for a while, then came in.

After circling and gathering strength, it was the first category 3 hurricane to hit Florida's north coast since 1899.

[NNadir]

13. The BAMD forecast has Ophelia passing a few kilometers south of my home.

It will, by then, have lost much of its energy down in Jesusland.



Well, this is almost certainly no Katrina, but be prepared. Ole' Brownie's back in Washington doing his ole' preparation routine, so you're on your own.