And under the heading "Everything has its price" we find this analysis

[GliderGuider]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/15/us-japan-power-analysis-idUSTRE76E1ZF20110715">Japan power sector oil demand may triple

(Reuters) - Japan's demand for crude and oil products to fuel power plants could triple if the country shuts all its nuclear reactors due to growing public safety concerns after the March earthquake and tsunami.

The country's energy policy was left in tatters after the quake caused by the worst nuclear accident in 25 years. Japan had planned to increase nuclear power supply to meet 50 percent of demand, from 30 percent before the quake. Now, Prime Minister Naoto Kan is talking about a nuclear-free future.

"In the short term, they would definitely try to import oil and gas, or even coal where they have a coal plant. But that is still not going to satisfy the need and I'm sure there's going to be shortfalls and energy crisis."

Morgan Stanley's assessment is for a total of 540,000 bpd oil demand for power between June and December in the worst case scenario if all reactors are shut compared to an average of 192,000 bpd in 2010. Total demand would be higher than OPEC-member Ecuador's crude output of about 500,000 bpd.

If Japan shuts down its nukes and can't fill the gap with fossil fuels, they will become the poster child for the approach I would prefer to see the world take: no nukes, no oil, no coal, no gas.

[WhiteTara]

1. no mention of renewables which are moving in

to some areas right now. Japan could be the poster child for changing to new technology instead of doing the same old thing over and over. I hope there are some forethoughted people there. Maybe Al could go visit their PM.

[GliderGuider]

3. They don't say how long they expect the tripling to last.

I still expect a massive push for "panels and pinwheels". However, I won't be surprised if that buildout takes "Longer Than Expected" (with apologies to XemaSab), leading to an extended bump in oil imports.

It will definitely take longer than the 6 months they looked at to get any significant renewable supplies up and running.

[NYC_SKP]

2. Suddenly, wind and solar look less problematic.

As a sixth grader once told me:

"I don't know why they call it (PV) "alternative", it's just energy, it's still electricity."

:kick:

[madokie]

4. I have to agree

Then again I'm a person who can build myself and my family a means to have electric power without the outlets thats connected to the power plants you mention in our homes. I just acquired 4 fairly new AGM 78 ah 12 volt batteries that I can use for storage so I have the last of the necessary items to do just that. Hopefully this winter I'll put this dream of mine together as that was the last piece to the pie and I like pie :-)

Rec'd

Most of my electric power comes from hydro and wind as it is now. We pay a premium for wind and have been for quite some time now. We have two coal power plants and two natural gas power plants within not much more than a stones throw of me but the power generated is not coming to us here, its fed to Northwest Arkansas and points west of us as the large power lines from them is evidence of. We have three large hydro lakes with a pumped hydro that supplies most of our power and a wind farm down south.

[kristopher]

5. I've seen nothing that would make me think a near term total shutdown is coming.

The slowdown Kan has maneuvered coincides with his promise to step down and his determination to get the Feed In Tariff for renewables enacted before leaving.