Documenting the link between nuclear energy and nuclear weapons proliferation

[kristopher]

This is a graduate school assignment posted on the website of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs | Kennedy School of Government | Harvard University. The outline demonstrates that the origin of the nuclear weapons threat lies in the civilian pursuit of nuclear power and the consequent impotence of the international community in dealing with weapons programs conducted on the back of civilian nuclear reactor development.

If we decide we are to pursue large scale deployment of nuclear power we should do so knowing that this is a new international norm that will be a consequence of that decision.

It is quite clear after Fukushima that the nuclear industry in nuclear technology exporting states has control of national policy on this issue. Therefore if we, the people, decide we do not believe this is an acceptable risk the question then becomes, "how can we control this arm of the Military Industrial Complex?"

Both Greenpeace and Union of Concerned Scientists are excellent organizations to support if you want to become involved.

Iran’s Nuclear Ambition
Response to Graham Allison's Iran Case Study
Policy Memo, Belfer Center
May 24, 2007


From: XXX

To: Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte

Re: Iran’s Nuclear Ambition



Issues: The US must prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapon state over the next five years. A military attack on nuclear facilities is too risky and international sanctions are too slow and weak to produce results before the end of 2007 or early 2008.

US National Interests: Iran’s nuclear goals threaten numerous national interests, they include:
Preventing states hostile to the US from acquiring a WMD capability (vital, threat: high)
Preventing the threat of nuclear attack on the US and its allies (vital, threat: low)
Avoiding war in the Middle East (vital, threat: medium)
Promote the well-being of US allies (very important, threat: medium)
Preventing the emergence of Iran as a regional hegemon (very important, threat: high)
Prevent the proliferation of WMDs in the Middle East (very important, threat: high)



Objectives: To secure America’s vital interests, we must meet these objectives:
Objective: Keep Iran from developing a closed nuclear fuel cycle
Outlook: Long-term
Chance of Success: 5%
Objective: Prevent Iran from producing enough enriched uranium for a bomb before the end of the year
Outlook: Short-term
Chance of Success: 45%
Pbjective: Keep Iran from developing a nuclear weapon over the next 5 years
Outlook: Long-term
Chance of success: 50%

Details at: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/2707/irans_nuclear_ambition.html?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2F619%2Ftehrans_trespasses


From the World Nuclear Association (A nuclear business lobbying group and trade association)

Nuclear power is under serious consideration in over 45 countries which do not currently have it...

In Europe:
Italy,
Albania,
Serbia,
Croatia,
Portugal,
Norway,
Poland,
Belarus,
Estonia,
Latvia,
Ireland,
Turkey.

In the Middle East and North Africa:
Iran,
UAE,
Saudi Arabia,
Qatar
Kuwait,
Yemen,
Israel,
Syria,
Jordan,
Egypt,
Tunisia,
Libya,
Algeria,
Morocco,
Sudan.

In west, central and southern Africa:
Nigeria,
Ghana,
Senegal,
Kenya,
Uganda,
Namibia.

In South America:
Chile,
Ecuador,
Venezuela.

In central and southern Asia:
Azerbaijan,
Georgia,
Kazakhstan,
Mongolia,
Bangladesh,
Sri Lanka

In SE Asia:
Indonesia,
Philippines,
Vietnam,
Thailand,
Malaysia,
Singapore,
Australia,
New Zealand.

In east Asia:
North Korea

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf102.html


What could possibly go wrong?

[bananas]

1. "the origin of the nuclear weapons threat lies in the civilian pursuit of nuclear power"

Al Gore said something to that effect regarding his own first-hand experience as VP.