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For Climate’s Sake, Nuclear Not An ‘Option’, But A ‘Necessity’

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wtmusic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 01:05 AM
Original message
For Climate’s Sake, Nuclear Not An ‘Option’, But A ‘Necessity’

Climate researcher Barry Brook

"Let’s start by establishing some common ground between my views and those ‘traditional’ environmentalists who oppose nuclear energy. As the Director of Climate Science and active researcher on the impacts of global warming on the biosphere at the University of Adelaide (Australia), I understand the seriousness of the climate crisis and the imperative for a rapid transformation of our energy system to technologies that emit no carbon when generating power. I also agree that atomic weapons pose substantial risks to the security of global society and need strict regulation, and that issues of nuclear safety must be held to high standards. I also suspect that most environmentalists recognise the dangers that many countries face – including Australia, Germany, Japan and so on – in being dependent of foreign oil for transportation infrastructure and agriculture, two of the arteries of the economy. Indeed, it is in the interest of all nations needs to move to energy independence that is based on clean, sustainable sources.

However, where I part way with many environmentalists in on our view as to what the solutions to these problems are. Many well-intentioned people hope to see a world without nuclear weapons or nuclear power, and unfortunately consider (wrongly) that the two are irrevocably intertwined. In the typical environmentalist worldview (I am, of course, deeply environmentally conscious), nuclear power is not only dangerous, but also unnecessary. Renewable energy, from sunlight, wind, waves and plant life, are clearly the answer, they believe. This is a widespread view – almost ‘common wisdom’ – and would be perfectly acceptable to me if the numbers could be made to work. Unfortunately, they can’t, and there is no prospect of this changing.

To keep things in proper context, let’s quickly review the challenge. In the developed world (US, Europe, and other members of the OECD), we’ve enjoyed a high standard of living, linked to cheap fossil energy. This has encouraged energy profligacy, and we clearly and should cut back on wastage where feasible (and in situations where it is not being done due to market failures) – but this doesn’t remove the fact that we must also replace oil and gas, and that means a future surge in electrical substitution. In the bigger, global picture, however, there is no realistic prospect of even reducing traditional stationary power demand. A third of the world’s people have little or no access to electricity yet strongly aspire to get it. Even if a country like India, with more than 1 billion people, reached just a quarter of Australia’s per capita use, that country’s national energy demand would more than triple! It’s a huge challenge."

http://theenergycollective.com/barrybrook/61373/climate-s-sake-nuclear-power-not-option-it-necessity?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=The+Energy+Collective+%28all+posts%29
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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 01:16 AM
Response to Original message
1. Nuclear is a third rate solution to climate change - using the best assumptions
Edited on Tue Jul-19-11 01:22 AM by kristopher
Using best assumptions on GHG emissions remaining constant with increased demand



Mods, this is a single paragraph abstract (see original form below) that I’ve broken apart for ease of reading:
You can download the full article at his webpage here: http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/revsolglobwarmairpol.htm

Or use this direct download link: http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/ReviewSolGW09.pdf

You can view the html abstract here: http://www.rsc.org/publishing/journals/EE/article.asp?doi=b809990c

Download slide presentation here: http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/0902UIllinois.pdf

Results graphed here: http://pubs.rsc.org/services/images/RSCpubs.ePlatform.Service.FreeContent.ImageService.svc/ImageService/image/GA?id=B809990C

Energy Environ. Sci., 2009, 2, 148 - 173, DOI: 10.1039/b809990c

Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security

Mark Z. Jacobson

Abstract
This paper reviews and ranks major proposed energy-related solutions to global warming, air pollution mortality, and energy security while considering other impacts of the proposed solutions, such as on water supply, land use, wildlife, resource availability, thermal pollution, water chemical pollution, nuclear proliferation, and undernutrition.

Nine electric power sources and two liquid fuel options are considered. The electricity sources include solar-photovoltaics (PV), concentrated solar power (CSP), wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, wave, tidal, nuclear, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. The liquid fuel options include corn-ethanol (E85) and cellulosic-E85. To place the electric and liquid fuel sources on an equal footing, we examine their comparative abilities to address the problems mentioned by powering new-technology vehicles, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs), and flex-fuel vehicles run on E85.

Twelve combinations of energy source-vehicle type are considered. Upon ranking and weighting each combination with respect to each of 11 impact categories, four clear divisions of ranking, or tiers, emerge.

Tier 1 (highest-ranked) includes wind-BEVs and wind-HFCVs.
Tier 2 includes CSP-BEVs, geothermal-BEVs, PV-BEVs, tidal-BEVs, and wave-BEVs.
Tier 3 includes hydro-BEVs, nuclear-BEVs, and CCS-BEVs.
Tier 4 includes corn- and cellulosic-E85.

Wind-BEVs ranked first in seven out of 11 categories, including the two most important, mortality and climate damage reduction. Although HFCVs are much less efficient than BEVs, wind-HFCVs are still very clean and were ranked second among all combinations.

Tier 2 options provide significant benefits and are recommended.

Tier 3 options are less desirable. However, hydroelectricity, which was ranked ahead of coal-CCS and nuclear with respect to climate and health, is an excellent load balancer, thus recommended.

The Tier 4 combinations (cellulosic- and corn-E85) were ranked lowest overall and with respect to climate, air pollution, land use, wildlife damage, and chemical waste. Cellulosic-E85 ranked lower than corn-E85 overall, primarily due to its potentially larger land footprint based on new data and its higher upstream air pollution emissions than corn-E85.

Whereas cellulosic-E85 may cause the greatest average human mortality, nuclear-BEVs cause the greatest upper-limit mortality risk due to the expansion of plutonium separation and uranium enrichment in nuclear energy facilities worldwide. Wind-BEVs and CSP-BEVs cause the least mortality.

The footprint area of wind-BEVs is 2–6 orders of magnitude less than that of any other option. Because of their low footprint and pollution, wind-BEVs cause the least wildlife loss.

The largest consumer of water is corn-E85. The smallest are wind-, tidal-, and wave-BEVs.

The US could theoretically replace all 2007 onroad vehicles with BEVs powered by 73000–144000 5 MW wind turbines, less than the 300000 airplanes the US produced during World War II, reducing US CO2 by 32.5–32.7% and nearly eliminating 15000/yr vehicle-related air pollution deaths in 2020.

In sum, use of wind, CSP, geothermal, tidal, PV, wave, and hydro to provide electricity for BEVs and HFCVs and, by extension, electricity for the residential, industrial, and commercial sectors, will result in the most benefit among the options considered. The combination of these technologies should be advanced as a solution to global warming, air pollution, and energy security. Coal-CCS and nuclear offer less benefit thus represent an opportunity cost loss, and the biofuel options provide no certain benefit and the greatest negative impacts.


As originally published:
Abstract

This paper reviews and ranks major proposed energy-related solutions to global warming, air pollution mortality, and energy security while considering other impacts of the proposed solutions, such as on water supply, land use, wildlife, resource availability, thermal pollution, water chemical pollution, nuclear proliferation, and undernutrition. Nine electric power sources and two liquid fuel options are considered. The electricity sources include solar-photovoltaics (PV), concentrated solar power (CSP), wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, wave, tidal, nuclear, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. The liquid fuel options include corn-ethanol (E85) and cellulosic-E85. To place the electric and liquid fuel sources on an equal footing, we examine their comparative abilities to address the problems mentioned by powering new-technology vehicles, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs), and flex-fuel vehicles run on E85. Twelve combinations of energy source-vehicle type are considered. Upon ranking and weighting each combination with respect to each of 11 impact categories, four clear divisions of ranking, or tiers, emerge. Tier 1 (highest-ranked) includes wind-BEVs and wind-HFCVs. Tier 2 includes CSP-BEVs, geothermal-BEVs, PV-BEVs, tidal-BEVs, and wave-BEVs. Tier 3 includes hydro-BEVs, nuclear-BEVs, and CCS-BEVs. Tier 4 includes corn- and cellulosic-E85. Wind-BEVs ranked first in seven out of 11 categories, including the two most important, mortality and climate damage reduction. Although HFCVs are much less efficient than BEVs, wind-HFCVs are still very clean and were ranked second among all combinations. Tier 2 options provide significant benefits and are recommended. Tier 3 options are less desirable. However, hydroelectricity, which was ranked ahead of coal-CCS and nuclear with respect to climate and health, is an excellent load balancer, thus recommended. The Tier 4 combinations (cellulosic- and corn-E85) were ranked lowest overall and with respect to climate, air pollution, land use, wildlife damage, and chemical waste. Cellulosic-E85 ranked lower than corn-E85 overall, primarily due to its potentially larger land footprint based on new data and its higher upstream air pollution emissions than corn-E85. Whereas cellulosic-E85 may cause the greatest average human mortality, nuclear-BEVs cause the greatest upper-limit mortality risk due to the expansion of plutonium separation and uranium enrichment in nuclear energy facilities worldwide. Wind-BEVs and CSP-BEVs cause the least mortality. The footprint area of wind-BEVs is 2–6 orders of magnitude less than that of any other option. Because of their low footprint and pollution, wind-BEVs cause the least wildlife loss. The largest consumer of water is corn-E85. The smallest are wind-, tidal-, and wave-BEVs. The US could theoretically replace all 2007 onroad vehicles with BEVs powered by 73 000–144 000 5 MW wind turbines, less than the 300 000 airplanes the US produced during World War II, reducing US CO2 by 32.5–32.7% and nearly eliminating 15 000/yr vehicle-related air pollution deaths in 2020. In sum, use of wind, CSP, geothermal, tidal, PV, wave, and hydro to provide electricity for BEVs and HFCVs and, by extension, electricity for the residential, industrial, and commercial sectors, will result in the most benefit among the options considered. The combination of these technologies should be advanced as a solution to global warming, air pollution, and energy security. Coal-CCS and nuclear offer less benefit thus represent an opportunity cost loss, and the biofuel options provide no certain benefit and the greatest negative impacts.



*************************************************************************************************

When we examine the substance of the claims made about the efficacy of GHG emissions from nuclear, however, we find that the best assumptions overstate the case for GHG avoidance by nuclear considerably.

Sci Eng Ethics (2009) 15:19–23 DOI 10.1007/s11948-008-9097-y

Data Trimming, Nuclear Emissions, and Climate Change

Kristin Sharon Shrader-Frechette


Abstract

Ethics requires good science. Many scientists, government leaders, and industry representatives support tripling of global-nuclear-energy capacity on the grounds that nuclear fission is ‘‘carbon free’’ and ‘‘releases no greenhouse gases.’’ However, such claims are scientifically questionable (and thus likely to lead to ethically questionable energy choices) for at least 3 reasons. (i) They rely on trimming the data on nuclear greenhouse-gas emissions (GHGE), perhaps in part because flawed Kyoto Protocol conventions require no full nuclear-fuel-cycle assessment of carbon content. (ii) They underestimate nuclear-fuel-cycle releases by erroneously assuming that mostly high-grade uranium ore, with much lower emissions, is used. (iii) They inconsistently compare nuclear-related GHGE only to those from fossil fuels, rather than to those from the best GHG-avoiding energy technologies. Once scientists take account of (i)–(iii), it is possible to show that although the nuclear fuel cycle releases (per kWh) much fewer GHG than coal and oil, nevertheless it releases far more GHG than wind and solar-photovoltaic. Although there may be other, ethical, reasons to support nuclear tripling, reducing or avoiding GHG does not appear to be one of them.



Let's break that down sentence by sentence:

Ethics requires good science.

Many scientists, government leaders, and industry representatives support tripling of global-nuclear-energy capacity on the grounds that nuclear fission is ‘‘carbon free’’ and ‘‘releases no greenhouse gases.’’

However, such claims are scientifically questionable (and thus likely to lead to ethically questionable energy choices) for at least 3 reasons.

(i) They rely on trimming the data on nuclear greenhouse-gas emissions (GHGE), perhaps in part because flawed Kyoto Protocol conventions require no full nuclear-fuel-cycle assessment of carbon content.

(ii) They underestimate nuclear-fuel-cycle releases by erroneously assuming that mostly high-grade uranium ore, with much lower emissions, is used.

(iii) They inconsistently compare nuclear-related GHGE only to those from fossil fuels, rather than to those from the best GHG-avoiding energy technologies.

Once scientists take account of (i)–(iii), it is possible to show that although the nuclear fuel cycle releases (per kWh) much fewer GHG than coal and oil, nevertheless it releases far more GHG than wind and solar-photovoltaic.

Although there may be other, ethical, reasons to support nuclear tripling, reducing or avoiding GHG does not appear to be one of them.

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Systematic Chaos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 06:31 AM
Response to Reply #1
9. .
Edited on Tue Jul-19-11 06:32 AM by Systematic Chaos
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 01:17 AM
Response to Original message
2. Radiation Take Away Yer Hair Sir?
Edited on Tue Jul-19-11 01:27 AM by AndyTiedye
Nuke industry shill doing damage control. Must be quite a challenge these days.

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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 01:18 AM
Response to Original message
3. Raking in the dough
A real environmentalist knows his premise is total bullshit. He's a damn fake.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 01:26 AM
Response to Original message
4. By the Time Anyone Can Build Another Nuke, Solar Will be Cheaper. So Says GE
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wtmusic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 09:07 AM
Response to Reply #4
12. Read the fine print
"Earlier this month, GE announced that a new power-plant design will integrate natural-gas electricity generation with both wind and solar as complements."

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2079474,00.html#ixzz1SYmOBppu

More "solar" means more CO2.
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bananas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 01:59 AM
Response to Original message
5. Barry Brook: "There was and will *not* be any significant release of radioactivity" at Fukushima.
Edited on Tue Jul-19-11 02:44 AM by bananas
Barry Brook lost all credibility when he posted an article which claimed "There was and will *not* be any significant release of radioactivity."
It was obvious nonsense, if Barry Brook had any understanding of nuclear energy he would have known that right away.
And yet he didn't just post it, he made every effort to make it go viral.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x284853

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bananas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 02:06 AM
Response to Original message
6. Here's an article from a year ago where Barry Brook sticks his head in the sand
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4282126&mesg_id=4283008

bananas Thu Feb-25-10 05:56 AM
Response to Reply #27

39. Barry Brook sticks his head further in the sand

<snip>

Barry is told explicitly that a "proliferating state or subnational group" can make a nuclear weapon with "assured, reliable yield of one or a few kilotons (and a probable yield significantly higher than that)" but Barry sticks his fingers in his ears and doesn't listen because it's not what he wants to hear. It's not "little more than a statement of authority", the classified material has been extensively reviewed by Garwin, Holdren, and many others.

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qb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 03:25 AM
Response to Original message
7. "one hell of a way to boil water" can't be repeated often enough.
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wtmusic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 08:59 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. OP addresses those who erroneously conflate nuclear weapons and nuclear power.
An analogous combination might be a fireplace and a stick of dynamite.
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qb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 09:25 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. Einstein didn't conflate the two - he was referring nuclear power.
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wtmusic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. No, he wasn't.
On the subject of nuclear energy, Einstein was more wrong than right.

"There is not the slightest indication that energy will ever be obtainable from the atom." (1934)

http://www.1-famous-quotes.com/quote/43010

"Since I do not foresee that atomic energy is to be a great boon for a long time, I have to say that for the present it is a menace. Perhaps it is well that it should be. It may intimidate the human race into bringing order into its international affairs, which, without the pressure of fear, it would not do."

http://www.working-minds.com/AEquotes.htm

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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 06:07 AM
Response to Original message
8. Here is an excellent article about nuclear eneergy
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wtmusic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 08:57 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. Not a word about radiation.
Did you read your own link?
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Terry in Austin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 11:41 AM
Response to Original message
15. Consensus lacking
Building a big enough nuclear fleet to make a difference for climate change is going to be a huge project requiring unprecedented collective determination and political will.

Given the lack of consensus on nuclear, I'd say the odds of wide enough deployment are slim to nil.

How do advocates plan on getting consensus?

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wtmusic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 12:24 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. Agree on all points.
I hope consensus can be built by spreading awareness of the risks of not taking aggressive action on climate change.

The risks of regional radiation releases like Fukushima will be significant with 1,300 new nuke plants in the world. No one denies that that should be a serious concern.

But it pales in comparison with potential climate developments over the next century or two which could be nothing short of cataclysmic.

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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. Consensus will come with success
Edited on Tue Jul-19-11 12:55 PM by Nederland
China and India have dozens of reactors currently under construction or planned. Germany and other European countries have ambitious plans for renewable energy. The next ten years will reveal what works, what doesn't, who was right and who was wrong. If India and China are able to build those reactors at the pace and price they predict, their success will eliminate a good portion of the opposition to nuclear power. Yes, there will always be opposition from certain environmental organizations, but quite frankly those groups are not what stands in the way of wide spread adoption. The real barrier right now is that Wall Street and utilities are not convinced that nuclear is financially viable--and with good reason. However, if regulation changes are made and there is a proven model of success, the money will flow.
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Terry in Austin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 01:22 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. So the key is changes in regulation?
Isn't that another way of saying "deregulation"?

>> if regulation changes are made and there is a proven model of success, the money will flow.

You're sure that Wall Street knows that?

>> always be opposition from certain environmental organizations

You're sure that this is the only opposition that makes a difference?

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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-11 12:01 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. No
For the most part regulatory changes have already occurred. The switch to regulating the nuclear industry the same way the airline industry is regulated is a smart one. We've learned that case by case certification is stupid and doesn't improve safety. The smart thing to do is to certify reactor designs and then run inspections to make sure an individual plant is being built to that design.

Whether or not this change is enough to reduce costs to the point that nuclear is competitive remains to be seen.
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Kolesar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-11 01:56 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. Ha! The last forty years have revealed what works and what doesn't
Commercial or government entities are incapable of safely managing nuclear facilities. The public has to bear all of the risk, safety or financial-wise.

I am scared that hapless First Energy is going to fuck up and spill radiation into Lake Erie from Perry or Davis Besse.
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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-11 11:56 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. Yeah, and we all know nothing ever changes
I mean, in 1800 the previous forty years "proved" that the only thing that works as far as energy goes was burning wood. That's why burning wood remains our primary source of energy today... :eyes:
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SpoonFed Donating Member (801 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-21-11 07:27 AM
Response to Original message
22. Thank you for posting part #4 of your series on white guys for nukushimas. n/t
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