As Climate Breakdown Worsens, Replacement Of Canadian Boreal Unlikely

[hatrack]

Scientists are not able to predict the exact consequences of climate change, but some say they might not all be bad. Because Canada is a northern country, it is likely warmer weather will provide benefits such as a longer growing seasons and less demand for heating in the winter, Environment Canada reports in The Science of Climate Change.


However, these benefits come at a cost. Without strategies in place to adapt to the changes, Canada may miss out on the benefits entirely. The paper states that the boreal forest in particular will be vulnerable to disease, fire and competition from other tree species as the weather warms. If carbon dioxide levels double, for example, it could shift the boreal forest belt northward by 500 kilometres, changing the makeup of the species therein.


But a natural replacement in tree species is not going to happen in our lifetime, says Steve Colombo, a research scientist with the Ministry of Natural Resources’ Ontario Forest Research. Some scientists foresee the changes taking place within the next 30 years, but not Columbo. “It is going to take a long, long time before the natural forests in Ontario will be replaced by more southerly located species.”

In general, the species dominating Northern Ontario will be adaptive to climate change, at least to the century 2050. But it does not mean one should not prepare for future opportunities. If the climate changes, industry, government and communities may want to decide changing the forest composition by bringing in high-value, adaptive species that can survive in mild winters. “It is a management and a social decision,” he suggests. The debate over changing species composition is in its infancy. There have been no discussions on government policy changes that would allow new species to be introduced, but “people are talking about it,” says Columbo.

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http://www.nob.on.ca/Forestry/headlines.asp?159id115-pn=&view=35142