MIT professor says g. w. responsible for more and bigger hurricanes

[philb]

An MIT Professor says that hurricanes have been getting more powerful over the last few decades, and warns that the trend is likely to continue. He says that global warming is a contributory factor.
In a paper appearing in the online edition of the journal Nature Kerry Emmanuel, professor of meteorology in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, writes:
"My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in destructive potential, and - taking into account an increasing coastal population - a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the 21st century."
(40) K. Emmanuel et al, MIT, Nature(online addition), August 4, 2005, http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/08/04/hurricane_stronger/

There has been a huge increase in hurricane and natural disaster related insurance company losses over the last decade, and major insurance companies are in consensus that global warming is a major factor.
http://www.flcv.com/green.html

[philb]

1. Rapid rise in coastal water temp. causing major decline in fish & birds,

and other ocean life.

Ocean surface temperatures have also been found to be increasing. Ocean surface temperatures off California to British Columbia have increased between 1.2 to 1.6 degrees Celsius since the 1950s, resulting in a dramatic decrease of 80% in the population of zooplankton which is at the base of the food chain(43). Coastal ocean temperatures are 2 to 5 degrees F above normal, which may be related to a lack of updwelling, in which cold, nutrient-rich water is brought to the surface. This has resulted in large declines of other parts of the ecosystem including a drop in fishing tonnage of over 35%, and even higher decreases for some birds and fish heavily dependent on zooplankton. Warm water marine snails and mollusks off the U.S. Pacific coast have been found to be expanding their range north at a rapid rate over the last decade(67).

Similar is true for the Gulf of Mexico, with hot temperatures producing monster hurricanes, and a huge dead zone.

http://www.flcv.com/green.html

[gulfcoastliberal]

11. Plankton "bottom" of food chain, no bottom, no top, no middle, no nothing

Oceans seem to be doomed as lifeless except maybe fecal bacteria. I'm sure they'll thrive in the nice hot ocean waters. Maybe we can farm salmon on fecal clumps? :puke:

[distantearlywarning]

2. Umm....

I'm no fan of G. W., and I certainly am worried about global warming, but at least the section you quoted doesn't imply in any way that G. W. is responsible for it. Nor do I personally believe this to be the case.

What G. W. is responsible for is denying the existence of global warming, failing to enact policies that stop its progression, and changing scientific reports about it to match what he wants the public to believe about it. But I don't think it's reasonable to blame him personally for the existence of it, nor does this scientist appear to be doing that. Your title is misleading and inaccurate.

[philb]

3. G.W. stands for global warming; note the topic; short space so can't

write out full words. But G.W. policies and promoting global warming.

[distantearlywarning]

4. LOL! My bad...

Sorry about that. I'm having a blond night, I guess...

:blush:

[philb]

5. Coral reefs are also being affected all over the world

Coral reefs are the most sensitive of all ecosystems to global warming, pollution, and new diseases. They are the first indicators of climate change. The most important resources for fisheries, tourism, shore protection, and marine biodiversity for more than a hundred countries, this is a huge disaster in process. Almost all reefs have already been heated above their maximum temperature thresholds. Many have already lost most of their corals, and temperature rise in most places gives only a few years before most corals die from heatstroke.
In 1998 most coral reefs in the Indian Ocean suffered widespread dieback. In 2002 the same happened across much of the South Pacific. These were the hottest and second-hottest years measured, but all other years in the last decade were only a few tenths of a degree less. Survival of most remaining coral is only a question of when the next year as hot as 1998 and 2002 hits. Statistically it’s already 2005, although if we’re lucky natural climatic fluctuations may postpone it for a few years.
http://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization-climate_change_debate/2558.jsp
Huge swathes of the coral at Rangiroa in French Polynesia died during three months of exceptionally warm weather in 1998, when sea temperatures soared to an average of 32 degrees centigrade for the first time.
Research by Newcastle University's Department of Marine Sciences has shown damage to the 800-year old coral reefs was catastrophic, and that it would take more than 100 years to return to its former glory.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/07/010726101653.htm
Global warming has caused an unprecedented mass bleaching of the world's coral reefs in 1998 which could affect the livelihood of millions of people, international marine scientists said on Thursday. "In some parts of the Indian Ocean mortality is as high as 90 percent. Reefs in the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Kenya and Tanzania were devastated with shallow reefs looking like graveyards."
In the Asia-Pacific region, the countries worst hit were Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia and the islands of Palau.
The marine scientists said coral bleaching associated with high sea temperatures had affected almost all species of coral and that current projections of rising temperatures suggested there would be an increase in coral bleaching and coral mortality.
http://www.gsreport.com/articles/art000023.html

[One_Life_To_Give]

6. Too short a sample time?

Looking from 1970 to the present. Means the historical data does not show the oscillation in surface temperature between the North and South Atlantic. Wouldn't taking the data from 1940 to present make much more sense?

[Viking12]

8. The hurricane data pre-1960 is pretty sketchy

So it takes some massaging of the data to work along w/ later records. Emanuel briefly discusses the problem and cites the work of NOAAs Chris Landsea in the paper.

BTW: Emanuel says nothing about frequency, only intensity. There is no evidence thats points to incresed frequency due to GW. Not yet at least, the signal may emerge from the noise as time goes by.

[philb]

12. A big study was done by Florida Public Service Commission in 1990

They have much additional info now after the last 2 years and several
dockets for hurricane damage cost recovery that led to further analysis of trends.
The Florida Emergency Management Agency has a lot of information and experience with hurricanes, since many hit there each year.

Water temperatures are a major factor in the hurricane intensity. There is a record of surface water temperatures in all U.S. areas for many years, Gulf Coast and off west coast.
I have a lot of those records.

they are readily available on the web by search.

[AntiFascist]

7. I hope he takes this into account:

The increasing division between wealthy and poor is increasing demand for cheap products, as in products sold at Walmart and many other stores which resell products which can only be made cheaply in China and India. This results in the increasing industrialization of these overpopulated nations which in turn results in a tremendous increase in greenhouse gases being released into the worldwide atmosphere.

At the very least the U.S. could be trying to set an example by promoting more fuel-efficient and less polluting transportation systems and manufacturing.

[philb]

9. China and India population desire cars & roads & more electricity to use

but it is totally impossible for those countries to build lots of roads and for most families to have cars and for most to use energy in the manner that U.S. population does. People should understand this is fairy tell idea, totally unfeasible. The global warming and worldwide mercury pollution already affecting everyone all over the world will guarantee that this doesn't happen.

So we have to educate those in both those developing countries and in the U.S. and developed countries that we can no longer afford to make bad choices. There are huge amount of cost effective energy efficiency technologies and alternative transportation systems that are more energy efficient and effective. Its ridiculous to even think about going in the directions of the bad choices of the past.

If we are going to have over 6 billion people in the world with continued growth; we have to drastically change the way we use energy and water and transportation systems. We know what will work. We just need some leadership to coordinate moving towards more sustainable systems.

[AntiFascist]

10. Very good statement

We constantly hear about the U.S. being threatened by China of losing its world leadership position. This could be one of the main points that we lose on, thanks to the greedy oil barons, domestic auto-makers, and out-of-control environmental deregulation.