bogie at 4 o'clock? *Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook*

[meow mix]

FRI OCT 14 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO POSSIBLY FORM LATER TONIGHT
OR ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... AND INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... CUBA... AND THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/142104.shtml

[hatrack]

1. Never a dull moment in the brave new world of 2005's hurricane season

Or, more simply phrased, "Yeeeeeeee-hahhhhh!!!"

[Gman]

4. Now that cold fronts are reaching the Gulf regularly

There's not much chance of one coming in this late in the season. However, I remember a mid or late October hurricane going into Louisiana it seems back in the 80's. It formed on an old cold front.

[malaise]

2. We've watching very carefully

in Jamaica. It will be pelting with rain shortly.

[Lancer]

3. So if this one becomes a hurricane,

will it be called Wilma -- or did we already have a little storm that wimped out by that name? If Wilma's been used, it's back to Alpha. Dear Lord.

[phantom power]

5. Wilma is still untaken. It's two more for the record!

[Dogmudgeon]

6. Six weeks left in official 'cane season

What do ya wanna bet that we get at least two Atlantic tropical cyclones after December 1?

--p!

[happyslug]

7. But the Named Strom's can occur as late as December 31st.

And at least one storm formed in January.

Two in December 2003:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/tws/MIATWSAT_nov.shtml?

Otto in December 2004:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/OTTO.shtml?

Olga in December 2001:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2001/OLGA.html

I know one Storm did form in January, it was a very rare event. Hurricanes tend to peak around September 20 (i.e. the first day of fall) with the vast majority between August 1st and November 1st. October and November storms occur almost as often as June and July Storms. Every so often you get one in December or May and you have that single outlier in January (And it is rare for these early and late storms to get larger than Tropical Storms)

[happyslug]

8. It is now Tropical Depression 24, it may become Wilma today.

TNT34 KNHC 160544
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
125 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT A SLOW WEST TO
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEAK SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/160544.shtml

[meow mix]

9. ya its really sluggish..

lots of time to form up, looks like wilma on the way taking its time

[NNadir]

10. TS Probability map has this baby heading right for Jesusland.

It may be punishing us for Ellen Degeneres again.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/refresh/AL2405_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/204841.gif

It seems to present a risk of becoming a fairly powerful hurricane.



One certainly hopes that Trent Lott has not begun to reconstruct his porch. God knows that man has suffered enough.

[skids]

11. CAT 2 to CAT 5 in mere hours.

Geeze I step away for a shower and all hell breaks loose.

"The dreaded pinhole eye" hasn't collapsed yet.

Even after it does, the new eye will have tons of time to tighten.

"Pressure drop, oh pressure drop, pressure gonna drop on you!"