Known Arctic Gone As Melt Accelerates Beyond Projections, Control - NYT

[hatrack]

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Of the various simulations, all done for an international scientific report on climate trends to be issued in 2007, the only ones that retain much summer sea ice in the Arctic by 2100 are those that assume global greenhouse-gas emissions are held constant at rates measured in 2000 - something that only five years later is already impossible. The other models all produce an Arctic Ocean in summer akin to the "open polar sea" that was sought by oceanographers and explorers in the mid-1800's. "There would definitely be shipping along the Eurasian coast, and the polar bears would have some serious issues," Dr. Holland said.

The models are, of course, impressionistic views of a far more complicated Arctic reality, so their projections are uncertain. But what worries field scientists, who form their opinions based on empirical clues embedded in ice or recorded by thermometers, is that observations of change and evidence pointing to past patterns are agreeing with the models. David Barber, an Arctic expert at the University of Manitoba, said emissions needed to be cut quickly to avert even greater damage. Skeptics who use the uncertainties to justify delaying such actions forget that uncertainty cuts both ways, and things could be far worse than forecast, Dr. Barber and others say. "I wish we would have started 50 years ago, but to not start now would be a real tragedy," Dr. Barber said.

But, he added, it is important to accept that shrinking summer sea ice over the next century is inevitable and that humans need to adapt. That inevitability presents a sticky problem for environmental groups, many of which have suggested that cutting greenhouse gases could save the polar bear and Eskimo traditions, both dependent on sea ice.

"Even if you would stop every engine right now, there is no escape unless you physically take the CO2 out of the air again," said Henk Brinkhuis, an expert on past Arctic ecosystems at Utrecht University in the Netherlands. He added that this would have to be done on a vast scale, far beyond simply planting trees or the like. "You may argue for a long time whether this process will take 20, 50 or 100 years, but it doesn't change the fact that it will happen," Dr. Brinkhuis said.


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http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/25/science/earth/25arctic.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1130259675-OY77z32/nkXZRsvaj6mlTw

[Inland]

1. Five minutes past midnight, and three more years of Bush to go. nt