Beta upgraded to a category 2. Further strengthening expected.

[NNadir]

PUERTO CABEZAS, Nicaragua - A strengthening Hurricane Beta dumped heavy rains and whipped up winds on Central America's Caribbean coast Saturday, prompting Nicaraguan troops to evacuate thousands of people from low-lying areas as Honduras declared a maximum state of alert.

Earlier on Saturday, the record 13th hurricane in the Atlantic this season lashed the tiny Caribbean island of Providencia with harsh winds, heavy rains and high surf.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm had been upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane with wind topping 105 mph and it was expected to strengthen further. Forecasters predicted Beta would reach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near the border with Honduras early Sunday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051030/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/hurricane_beta

On the bright side, it should make lots of downed hardwood available for fireplaces.

Jeff Masters also writes thusly:

Elsewhere in the tropics: The large tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean that is interfering with Beta's circulation has weakened and is not expected to develop through tomorrow.

A large tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become better organized today and has some potential for further development over the next few days as it moves west or west-northwest at 15 mph. This area of disturbed weather will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Puerto Rico on Tuesday. If a tropical storm does develop from this wave, it could threaten the Bahamas and the Southeast U.S. coast five or six days from now.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[NNadir]

1. Masters surmised it wouldn't happen but Beta's a category 3.

The disturbance has steadily weakened the past 24 hours, and so has the shear over Beta. By the time Beta makes its expected landfall near the Nicaragua-Honduras border Sunday morning, the shear will drop to five knots, which could allow rapid strengthening. There is not much time, though, for Beta to make it to Category 3 status, and the most likely strength at landfall is as a Category 2 hurricane. However, the latest microwave satellite data from NASA's TRMM satellite shows a pinhole eye--a very small 10-mile diameter eye like Wilma developed just before her rapid deepening phase. This may portend a rapid intensification cycle to Category 3 strength or higher may occur today. The hurricane hunters will be in the storm beginning at about 3 pm EDT today to check on its strength

Now the update from Yahoo:

PUERTO CABEZAS, Nicaragua - Thousands of Nicaraguans in boarded-up homes or shelters braced for the arrival of Hurricane Beta early Sunday after the storm steadily gathered strength overnight. The outer bands were already thrashing the mainland with heavy rains and high winds.

Nicaraguan President Enrique Bolanos declared a maximum "red alert" late Saturday, ordering everyone to stay inside. He said some 45,000 people from the port regions were either secured in their homes or holed up in 15 shelters provided by the government.

At 4 a.m. EST, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Beta's winds had picked up to 115 mph and it was upgraded to a major Category 3 storm. It was expected to make landfall within hours on Nicaragua's east coast.

[Boomer]

2. Masters has consistently underestimated these late storms

Even after seeing how far off he was in predicting Wilma's strength once it hit the Gulf and headed for Florida, Masters continues to underestimate the last month (we hope) of hurricane season.

After Wilma and Alpha, he cheerfully reminded folks that hurricane season was basically over and it was time to turn our attention to winter storms.

Then along came Beta...

[phantom power]

3. I wonder if there's something fundamentally new going on...

aside from just warming? These guys have all underestimated the last few storms. They've got the same access to temperature data we have, and no doubt much more.

Either they just can't accept what their own eyes are telling them, or something new, but not yet obvious, is happening, that's causing their models (and intuition) to break down. At one point, Wilma had an eye almost narrow enough to be a tornado. And then later, it had an unusually large eye. It also survived shear winds of something like 50mph, which is supposed to be impossible.

I renew my prediction that we will see Gamma and Delta in November, followed by Epsilon in early December.

[Boomer]

4. The sum of the parts is greater than the whole

I think the "new" to which you refer is the difference between models and reality.

We're finding that the global warming models were accurate in that they predicted an increase in climate extremes and the melting of the glaciers, but we're finding that these models did not accurately reflect the timing and degree of intensity of these changes.

Glaciers are melting at an alarming rate, beyond that of the most pessimistic scientists. And this continues across the board to all other predictions involved in climate change. Our worst case scenarios, it turns out, are too optimistic. Our assumption of the earth's continued ability to absorb abuse was too optimistic.

So obviously we are missing what happens when you put all these environmental strains into a bowl and mix really well.

[meow mix]

5. so when one of the greek named storms lands a solid hit

its name has to be removed from the name-list and cannot be used again due to legal issues with insurance, funding legislation, and other social reasons.

[Boomer]

6. We'll need to add a new language alphabet real soon

Guess I'd better brush up on Cyrillic.....

[NNadir]

7. Maybe we can get corporate sponsorship for Hurricanes.

How about Hurricane "Bank of America?" Or "Hurricane Halliburton?" Or "Hurricane Verizon Cellular?"

[Pooka Fey]

8. I needed that laugh.

:rofl:

[Pooka Fey]

9. OMFG

<snip>
The list of FEMA missteps continues to grow - no-bid or limited-competition contracts, trucks full of ice wandering around the country, and, in another recent case, a $110,000 contract for Hurricane Katrina T-shirts. <snip>

http://www.theadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2196965

Words fail me.