Grim Fire Forecast For 2004 - Drought Continues In Southwest

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"Federal wildfire managers say the Southwest is so dry this winter that fire season could start sooner and be as bad or worse than in 2002, when millions of acres burned.

In a preliminary outlook for 2004, the Southwest Area Coordination Center in Albuquerque says persistent drought and millions of trees dead or dying from dryness and insect infestations have made much of New Mexico and Arizona a tinderbox.

Forecasters predict that less-than-normal snow and rain for the rest of winter will compound the threat. In some places, the water content of the snowfall this winter has been less than one-fifth of normal.

"Even if we get normal precipitation for the rest of the winter, (the only question) is whether it will be a bad fire season or a worse fire season," says Chuck Maxwell, head of forecasting for the center, a multiagency hub for the region's wildfire operations. Fire season in the Southwest normally begins in April. But with little relief in sight, it could start a month or more earlier. Maxwell's team is urging public-land managers to finish fire training and preparations sooner than normal, put more firefighters on duty earlier and have computerized stations that gauge daily fire danger up and running by March 1."

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