Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Basin Now Possible Within 15 Years - CBC

[hatrack]

Recent melting of sea ice in the Arctic may lead to the lowest level yet of ocean ice cover in the Arctic this summer, resulting in drastic changes to the northern ecosystem, according to scientists meeting at a conference in Winnipeg this week.

More than 120 scientists from nearly a dozen nations are attending the meeting of the Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study.

The group, which conducted research over the past three years in the High Arctic, is releasing its findings, including studies from a year spent on board the Amundsen research icebreaker.

EDIT

Scientists now say that in as little as 15 years, the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer. They say the last time that happened was more than a million years ago.

EDIT

http://www.cbc.ca/manitoba/story/mb_arctic-ice-20060215.html

[Moochy]

1. A great place to put oil rigs!

Think of how much oil there must be up there!!
:sarcasm:

[IDemo]

8. They're way ahead of you, Moochy ==>>

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/1010-07.htm

-- "With major companies and nations large and small adopting similar logic, the Arctic is undergoing nothing less than a great rush for virgin territory and natural resources worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Even before the polar ice began shrinking more each summer, countries were pushing into the frigid Barents Sea, lured by undersea oil and gas fields and emboldened by advances in technology. But now, as thinning ice stands to simplify construction of drilling rigs, exploration is likely to move even farther north.

Last year, scientists found tantalizing hints of oil in seabed samples just 200 miles from the North Pole. All told, one quarter of the world's undiscovered oil and gas resources lies in the Arctic, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The polar thaw is also starting to unlock other treasures: lucrative shipping routes, perhaps even the storied Northwest Passage; new cruise ship destinations; and important commercial fisheries.

"It's the positive side of global warming, if there is a positive side," said Ron Lemieux, the transportation minister of Manitoba, whose provincial government is investing millions in Churchill."

See? There's a positive side to everything! :wow:

[JohnWxy]

10. Exxon-Mobil has a plan...(no doubt)

[megatherium]

2. Endless Summer

Not just a Beach Boys album anymore.

[Dead_Parrot]

3. Think I'll buy a jet-ski

Yeeeeeeeee-haaaaaaaaaaaaa....!!!

[Dogmudgeon]

4. Fifteen?

Put your money on five.

If this is from Canada's official Ice and Snow prediction group, it's 4-8 and they know it. They're saying "15" now because they know they'll eventually have to get us ready to have an ice-free Arctic, and soon.

The last temperature spike of this sort eventually raised the temperature of the Arctic an average of 59F. It didn't last long -- it was immediately followed by a Heinrich Event, a decades-long cooling phase that also re-built the ice caps.

Since the current situation isn't entirely naturally generated, we're in unknown territory, but it's likely that we are at the beginning of a pre-Heinrich Event temperature spike from other observations we've made, like greenhouse gas increase. The temperature spikes last a few decades. It's impossible to say "less than ten to fifty years" but we do know, generally, how the process works. On the other hand, the changes have been coming unusually quickly.

Canadian Parliament has about one year left to start making sure that polar bears and other interesting Arctic fauna doesn't become extinct. The Arctic Ocean should be navigable all year around for a brief period before the climate flip happens and the cold comes back in.

If the Arctic is ice-free long enough, we'll live to see cyclonic tropical-like storms form there. "White Hurricanes". If a long-term temperature inversion becomes established, the winters themselves will be warm, and the Arctic will resemble the old legends of Hyperborea, a terrifying land of eternal fog, darkness, stench, and simultaneous heat and ice. Wintertime heat would keep huge amounts of water vapor aloft, which would be forced southward into colder air, causing a year-round stormy zone between the northern and southern winter jet streams.

Of course, I could be wrong about all this; it's all speculative, from anyone's perspective. But from the present point of view, it looks like the most likely scenario, except for the temperature inversion, which is probably around 50/50.

We've blown it. It's time to hunker down and make sure we can get through the next century without sacrificing too many of our human brothers and sisters.

--p!

[Dead_Parrot]

5. I'll have $10 on 3 years...

I think we're on a rollercoaster, and we're not going to see the dips until we hit them.

[Odin2005]

6. Holy Fuck

last I heard it was 50 years.

[hatrack]

7. No longer - as they say, "albedo happens"

nt

[Odin2005]

9. "albedo happens" thats a good one. :-)

:rofl: