Has the Meltdown Begun?

[leftchick]

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1161231,00.html

Posted Sunday, Feb. 19, 2006
The usual argument put forth by global-warming skeptics for why we shouldn't rush to do anything yet is that the science behind climate change is uncertain--and in fact it is. While there's little doubt that humans are helping heat up the planet, the questions of how much, how quickly and leading to what consequences are fiendishly difficult to pin down. That's because the actual climate is still far more complicated than any existing computer model can accurately reflect, making predictions iffy at best. Some natural processes nobody has yet thought of could end up blunting the severest impact of global warming.

Or, conversely, they could make the impact even worse than expected. And according to a study that sent tremors through the scientific community last week, that is exactly what seems to be happening in Greenland. Glaciers that flow toward the ocean in the southern half of that enormous frozen island are among the world's fastest moving, and their massive outpouring of ice now contributes fully a sixth of the annual rise in sea level. According to a study in the current issue of Science, they have nearly doubled their rate of flow over the past five years, to about 8 miles a year, dumping icebergs and meltwater into the already rising ocean faster than anyone expected. "In 1996 Greenland was losing about 100 cu km of ice per year," says Eric Rignot of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, lead author of the study, which he presented at last week's meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in St. Louis, Mo. "This year it will lose more than twice as much." By comparison, he says, in 1996 Greenland dumped 90 times as much water into the sea as Los Angeles consumed; last year it was up to 225 times. "In the next 10 years," says Rignot, "it wouldn't surprise me if the rate doubled again."

No computer climate model anticipated that increase, which means that all current predictions about how much sea level could rise--the latest U.N. report estimated it at a half-meter (about 1.5 ft.) by the end of the century--are too low and will have to be revised upward. Greenland's ice cap covers more than 650,000 sq. mi. and in places stands nearly 2 miles thick. "If it all melted or otherwise slid into the ocean, sea level would rise by 20 ft. or so," says Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton. Under conventional global-warming scenarios, that will eventually happen--but over a period of several thousand years. The new study suggests that it could happen in a few hundred years. "That's a few feet per century," says Oppenheimer, "which may not sound like a lot, but it's more than society can handle. In places like the Eastern seaboard of the U.S., a 1-ft. vertical rise in sea level means a 100-ft. retreat of shoreline." In low-lying countries like Bangladesh, the resulting flooding could dwarf the 2004 tsunami.

[oneighty]

1. But when

ice cubes melt in my cocktail the liquid level do not rise. Science from Rush.

Hic. Sarcasm

180

[roguevalley]

2. its forty degrees right now in Alaska. we are your bell weather.

consider your bell rung.

[Dead_Parrot]

3. Yes

that was easy, ask me another.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. How many coastal cities will be flooded

by the rise in the oceans?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

7. How many coastal cities will not be flooded? Much shorter answer.

[dysfunctional press]

9. ALL of them.

easy answer.

[hatrack]

5. Oh, yeah, well on our way . . .

We've been speeding up for some time (as in a number of years) already. But things are going to get really, really interesting from this point on out.

In fact, we may need a new journalistic metric - as in "Will dramatic climatic and weather events precede or follow news relating to Britney Spears/Laci Peterson/Natalee Hollaway on cable news?"

Now, just because such events may appear on cable "news" coverage after information related to any of these three women doesn't necessarily mean anything. However, if climate breakdown news should appear before Britney, Laci or Natalee, then we're definitely doomed.

[ixion]

6. Here's a logical argument that I use against global warming skeptics

It's very simple:

You don't put 5+ billion humans into an ecosystem, pollute it heavily, and expect it not to change. That defies the most basic notions of equilibrium.

It's not necessarily the magnitude of the change, although global change of any magnitude would be a big deal for we frail little humans.

It's not a matter of the height that we're causing the sea levels to rise, it's that they're rising, and because we dominate the ecosystem, it's a logical extension to say that it's likely that we're related to the cause.

Of course, it never works, but you have to try. :-)

[stevietheman]

11. But correlation doesn't equal causation.

That's a fair rebuttal to what you're saying. Nothing wrong with skepticism.

[ixion]

14. no, it sure doesn't

but statistically speaking the chances that it's relevant are very high.

It's more than possible. It's probable.

[pretzel4gore]

8. superstorms.....

i think one day a hurricane will form and follow the rules until, for some reason not understood the thing keeps growing until it sucks entire earth atmosphere into it.....it will feed off global heat and global cold to become the worst disaster the planet has ever experienced- and the busheviks will be demandng nationalization of all resources to battle it, but noone will listen

[dysfunctional press]

10. doubtful.

"...sucks entire earth atmosphere into it..."

um...hurricanes aren't black holes- where would the atmosphere go, if it were all "sucked into" a giant hurricane?

[pretzel4gore]

12. ok ok...i was just fantasy-ing about them bastard bushbots...

anyway, i was thinking of venus, or jupiter-they have atmospheres that are in a constant votex, of sorts...on urth, too much energy is being converted into heat, the heat will need to discharge itself, and a humungous storm's the only way....according to an MOT drivers training manual, a brake in a moving vehicle works by converting car's momentum via friction into heat...iow all braking done by all vehicles on earth becomes heat;, as a driver i think of that all the time on the highway, and try not to use brakes unless absolutely necessary; i don't even slow down for stop signs or police (they seem to understand when i explain the importance of not using the brakes, thank god) and hope you will think of it too next time a red light wants you to slow down, or stop!

[DLnyc]

13. But, a 'permanent hurricane', or very long-lived, is not far fetched.

See, for instance, Jupiter. Often overlooked is the fact that a warmer atmosphere will be more 'volatile'--i.e. more storms and more extremes in temperatures.

[dysfunctional press]

15. hypercanes are a possibility- but earth is not jupiter.

trying to compare the climate of earth with the climate of jupiter is like comparing apples to grey whales.

[Odin2005]

17. Youve been watching The Day After Tomorrow too many times.

Art Bell's superstorm nonsense is absolute BS.

[Dead_Parrot]

18. Agreed...

...to quote from the hate mailbag, "who the fuck is Art Bell?"

[bemildred]

16. Nah, everything is fine. Have another Budweiser(tm). nt

[happyslug]

19. Greenland??? Look at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

And become VERY scared. First we must remember the difference between Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves. Ice Shelves (Like the Arctic Ocean) floats on top of water. Since such ice is already displacing the water it will become when it melts no one is worried about the Arctic ICe Sheets when it comes to flooding our cities (It DOES affect Polar bear hunting and may lead to the extinction of the Polar Bear do to the lack of summer time ice in the Arctic but that disaster is already upon us and is the subject of at least one other thread in DU).

The real worry is the Ice Shelves which are grounded and as such NOT displacing the water the ice will become when it melts or even breaks off from the Ice Shelf. The three BIG Ice Sheets are the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (Sometime called EAIS, which is grounded within the Antarctic Circle and above Sea Level, no one is worried about it melting, in fact do to increase heating of the earth the East Antarctic Ice Sheet might expand do to increase water in the air that then goes to the Antarctic and drops as snow, hotter aid hold more moisture, thus more moisture lands on the East Antarctic ICe Sheet). The East Antarctic ICe Sheet hold 70% of the world Fresh water.

The real concerns are the two smaller ice Sheets, Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (The WAIS is separated from the EAIS by the Antarctic Mountains). Both The Greenland the WAIS are about 10% of the world's fresh water (With the WAIS bigger then the Greenland Ice Sheet).

The Problem with the Greenland Ice Sheet is part of it stretches south of the Arctic Circle and thus closer to the rest of the heating oceans. This is complicated by the fact the Greenland Ice Sheet has the ability to STOP the Gulf Stream and thus stopping the world wide circulation system that balances out the temperatures of the World Oceans and in the process Makes Europe the warmest part of the world at Europe's latitude (For example both New Foundland, Canada, Russia and Siberia which are at the same latitude as England are much colder than England and the rest of Western Europe). Thus the Greenland ice Sheet had the potential to stop the flow of heat to Europe and dropping Europe's average Temperature to be the same as Siberia's (And this does NOT take a complete melt down of the Greenland Ice Sheet, just a Sudden large drop of ice into the Atlantic).

Thus while the Greenland ICe Sheet an be bad, the WAIS can be worse for it can break up and float into the Southern OCean (the Sea around Antarctica) in one big flow, raising world wide sea levels 20 feet overnight (yes Overnight NOT 50 years). The biggest worry time is February to April, the end of the Antarctic Summer when the ice shelves around the ICe Sheets are at their lowest and thus the greatest amount of contact between the warmer sea waters of the Southern Ocean and the WAIS (It is believed the Ice Sheets around Antarctic makes the Ocean water colder when they interact with the WAIS).

The problem is the WAIS is a true ice Sheet, it is grounded on land, but grounded BELOW SEA LEVEL. Thus the base of the WAIS comes into direct contact with Sea water. This sea water being salt water has a tendency to go under Ice Sheets and melt the ice between the Ground and the ICe Sheet and thus float the Ice Sheets. What can happen is the ICe Shelves around the WAIS become to small to keep the Sea Temperature below 32 degree Fahrenheit (0 Degrees Celsius). Salt water becomes ice at much lower temperatures than Fresh water (And this is why we through Salt on Ice in the Winter to melt the Ice). On the other hand the Ice Sheets and Shelves are both Fresh water. If the sea water is well below 32 Degree Fahrenheit the sea water has little or no affect (Some infect as some of the Fresh water become contaminated with salt and melt but this is relativity minor given the temperatures of these water which tend to be much below Freezing). On the other hand as the temperature of the water gets closer and closer to the Freezing point of water, interaction with the salt AND the temperature of the Sea water melts the Fresh water ice of the ICe Sheet and causes it to float on the sea level. Once the ice Sheet starts to float it displaces the water it is made of and raises world wide sea level. The big fear is once this process starts it may NOT stop till the whole Ice Sheet is Floating raising world wide sea levels 20 feet.

Thus the big Fear is the West Antarctic ICe Sheet (WAIS) NOT the long term affect of the Greenland Ice Sheet.