Ethanol: " the potential benefits are staggering"

[JohnWxy]

http://www.gm.com/company/gmability/environment/news_issues/speeches/lowery_011706.html


In Europe, the Saab 9-5 Biopower is Sweden’s best-selling environmentally friendly vehicle, and accounts for 80 percent of all 9-5 sales there. What’s more, it was also recently named to Popular Science magazine’s “Best of What’s New” list.

In addition to the obvious benefit of a renewable fuel, performance of the vehicle is actually enhanced. For example, the Saab Biopower gets 180 horsepower while running on E85, compared to 150 on gasoline.

Turning back to the U.S., we need to expand the infrastructure, because the potential benefits are staggering.

That’s why, at General Motors, we are partnering with government and fuel providers – anyone who shares our common interest on ethanol. For example, at the LA Auto Show we announced a partnership with the State of California, Chevron and Pacific Ethanol to study the feasibility of making E85 more widely available in the State of California. The State is considering the purchase of 50-100 E85 General Motors cars and trucks to place them in their fleet. Chevron will work with Pacific Ethanol to provide the fuel.

Worldwide production of ethanol has risen steadily — and dramatically — in the last 25 years, as this chart shows.

It’s expected to triple between now and 2020, and the sooner this country gets the infrastructure in place, the sooner we can put more of these vehicles on the road in huge volume. Don’t get me wrong, our high volume products such as Chevrolet Silverado and Impala and GMC Sierra, to name a few, are E85 capable. However, as an industry, there are more opportunities when it comes to E85.

If market conditions supported unconstrained ethanol supply and infrastructure … we could save 45 million barrels of oil annually, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 6.9 million metric tons per year.

Right now, ethanol represents just 2.5 percent of our fuel supply, but is predicted by some to increase tenfold in the next 10 or 15 years.

Such an amount could help offset future growth in oil demand, act as a hedge to future oil supply and price shocks, and help diversify our transportation energy supply.

[texastoast]

1. That should go a long way

to aggravating the oil companies. The American auto companies have no one but themselves to blame for not being geared up to be better positioned in the market now. That comes from being so deeply in bed with the oil companies.

I know my next car will be a hybrid or other alternative fuel.

[formercia]

2. Don't forget that Petroleum helped to save the whale

when people switched from whale oil to kerosene. The shortage of whales forced scientists of the day to find a new fuel for lamps, now the shortage of oil makes us look elsewhere again.
Hopefully in the future, we will look back at the personal automobile just like we look at kerosene lamps; useful in an emergency, but not very practical for everyday use.

[woodsprite]

3. So if I need a truck, a diesel Silverado is a good bet?

We need one for hauling and want to ditch our pure 12yo gasoline model. We were looking used, but want to get something that can be easily converted to alternative fuel.

[greenman3610]

4. check the manufacturer website

that vehicle may already be "flexfuel" ready.

[JohnWxy]

12. be prepared for the fact that although GM owns SAAB and was

involved in the design of the 9-5 Bio Power car, they have not bothered to offer turbo-charged or super-charged FFVs here which would bring your fuel economy in line with gasoline use (when you drive your FFV using gasoline however, you get the same mileage as a regular car on gasoline).

This is interesting since GM and Ford both have sold turbo-charged and super-charged cars for years and have several super-charged models on sale right now which only use regular gas (well they can use 15% ethanol too). But they don't offer any FFVs that are turbo or super-charged which would enable them to take advantage of the higher octane of ethanol 85 and get you the same mileage as when the car is operated on regular gasoline. (???)

[mike_c]

5. biofuels in general are smoke and mirrors unless energy demand...

...can be reduced by at least a factor of 10, i.e. to at least one tenth current consumption levels. Even that is wildly optimistic IMO, and a biofuel economy could do more ecological damage than the current petroleum economy. TOTAL annual global NPP is in the 10¹⁵ g C range, while CURRENT annual fossil fuel consumption is based on NPP accumulation in the 10¹⁸ g C range, or 1000 times greater than total global NPP capacity-- and that doesn't even address how much of the global NPP capacity it's realistic to consider "available" for biofuel production, or how efficiently biomass can be converted to biofuels. Conversion to high-efficiency crops and cropping systems can only scratch the surface of this problem, but at enormous ecological cost-- the equivalent of converting the entire Amazon basin into oilseed farming, or industrializing a similarly huge portion of the ocean's surface for algal biomass production-- both of which would require massive nutrient subsidies that would produce further ecological damage. I know some folks REALLY WANT TO BELIEVE in an ethanol or other biofuel economy, but the earth simply does not have the primary production capacity to support more than a tiny fraction of the current energy demand on biofuels, and I do not believe that there is a technological solution other than reducing demand to nineteenth century consumption levels.

on edit: BTW, if you want to get a sense of the impact human activity already has on global NPP, and thus what proportion of production capactity humans MIGHT possibly divert to biofuels production under even the best scenarios, I suggest you take a look at Vitousek et al. 1986 HUMAN APPROPRIATION OF THE PRODUCTS OF PHOTOSYNTHESIS (http://dieoff.org/page83.htm).

[JohnWxy]

10. NOt (yet) prepared to give up ALL hope:

Contemplating disaster vs trying to do something to prevent or at leaast alleviaatae it:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x43223


The Oak Ridge National Laboratory report: Ethanol potential 30% of gasoline demand:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=38006

Argonne National Laboratory study: GHG reduction 65% corn ethanol, 85% cellulosic ethanol:
http://www.ncga.com/public_policy/PDF/03_28_05ArgonneNatlLabEthanolStudy.pdf


Rather than giving up all hope (which may appeal to those given to fatalistic romanticism) I prefer to keep trying what we can. I fully agree the situation is dire, but I believe informed action is better than inaction.

Even if in the end, Ehrlich proves to be right, I am NOT (yet) prepared to give up ALL Hope.

(P.S. If you really want to feel depressed consider the World's population explosion and the likelihood of reigning it in (you wanna take on the Pope?). Now there's a conundrum. Even with reduced energy use if things keep going the way they have been the human race is in for a very bad time.)

[mike_c]

13. I hear you, but I HAVE given up any hope for the future of organic...

...combustion as the foundation of human energy needs UNLESS we're talking about a human society with dramatically lower energy consumption-- and I mean something approaching stone age demand on a per capita basis or alternatively, a MUCH reduced human population. Organic combustion IS the stone age fuel of choice-- it's ironic that we still depend on it just as much as when humans huddled around fires 10,000 years ago. We've just gotten more efficient at extracting energy from those combustion calories, and we've substituted more concentrated forms of biomass, but our utter dependence upon burning organic material has not changed during our entire history. It will be our downfall, IMO-- any long term solution to the human energy dilemma, or even short term solution at current demand growth, MUST be non-organic AND sustainable. Direct capture of solar energy is one possible solution, but I don't think it has much more long term potential for substantially resolving the human energy crisis than biofuels do, frankly. I don't pretend to have any answers, but I am not at all hopeful.

[depakid]

27. Not to mention the negative EROEI

and the tremendous opportunity costs associated with growing car fuel (as opposed to people fuel and animal feed).

Ethanol may indeed be used on a small scale for local transportation and farm machinery, etc., but people are deluding themselves if they think ethanol (or any other combination of alternatives) is going to allow them to keep anything remotely similar to their current "car intensive" culture in the coming decades.

Despite the current consensus trance and widespead denial- that's just not going to happen.

[jpak]

6. I have found the effects of ethanol to be indeed "staggering"

:evilgrin:

[phantom power]

7. Yeah, and they cause "biofuel" to accumulate around my waiste...

[jpak]

9. Shade in the summer, warmth in the winter...

:evilgrin:

[Dead_Parrot]

15. lol...

In the summertime when the ethanol's fine
You can stretch right up and touch the sky
When the weather's fine
You got switch-grass, you got switch-grass on your mind
Have a drink, have a drive
Go out and see what you can find

(Apologies to Mungo Jerry)

[JohnWxy]

11. now, now. It's supposed to go in your cars tank,, not yours.

[Dead_Parrot]

14. It does raise an interesting question...

Production of ethanol on a small scale would be subject to various booze laws, and possibly a tax: Although most of us don't have the land to be self-suficient for fuel, people with a few acres might have the option - but Customs would be unhappy about a still in the back yard...

[phantom power]

16. Yeah, we're basically talking about moonshine...

on an astronomical scale.

[Dead_Parrot]

17. I found some ethanol made out of apples last night

Staggered as a newt.

[jpak]

18. On a Monday night????

Shame...

:evilgrin:

:toast:

[Dead_Parrot]

19. There is no such word as shame in my dictionary...

Actually, every thing from "radiology" to "transcript" is missing. I must buy a new one...

(If it's any consolation, I've got a bitchin' headache)

:nopity:

[Nihil]

21. *Snort*

Can't beat a flagon of rough cider (unless it's with
two flagons of rough cider!).

Now when you get onto the scumble then you've got a
"Monday night problem" ...
:toast:

[Dead_Parrot]

22. I'll stick to stuff made from apples...

...not mostly apples. At least for Mondays.

:beer:

[jpak]

35. When I was an undergrad

We'd fill up a van full of apples from my parent's orchard, take it to the local cider press and make a 55 gallon drum of hard cider.

We'd let it sit until January. Then on a 30 below zero night - we'd pour off the "good stuff".

Not automotive grade, but pretty damned close.

Called it "Old Skullpop"....

:party:

[phantom power]

8. I remain only "potentially" staggered.

The more actual ethanol that is produced, the more actually staggered I will become.

[Odin2005]

20. Biofuels: 1, Doomers: 0

[Dead_Parrot]

23. After the first quarter...

...three to go.

PS: Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom.

:D

[phantom power]

36. You're being a bit generous, aren't you?

I haven't seen any actual goals scored. I've seen a lot of articles saying that the potential for goals is staggering...

[Dogmudgeon]

24. Well, sure. GM wants personal automobiles to survive.

This may be a glimmer of good news, but the energy isn't a niche problem. The resource issues mainly matter macroeconomically -- can we get enough energy to sustain our civilization? What will the impacts of the costs involved be? That is why most of us support the implementation of as many new technologies as quickly as can be done safely.

But we seriously need to develop solutions regardless of what's good for GM. Ethanol will undoubtedly be part of the mix, either as a large long-term solution, or a strictly transitional fuel -- maybe both. But these decisions can't be made for the benefit of GM or any potential beneficiary in the profit stream, a principle that is especially important in dealing with nuclear energy (pro or anti).

The only remaining problem: Is GM (and Elizabeth Lowery) blowing biodegradable smoke up our ass? Although I question some of their conclusions, JohnWxy has made an excellent case for the overall viability of ethanol and ethanol additives. This is definitely a case where I trust the product more than the producer.

--p!

[JohnWxy]

39. Without a doubt GM is motivated by self-interest. But ethanol will play

a part in achieving a degree of energy independence. Longer term I believe fuel-cell cars will be the key to this, at least for personal cars (not so likely for heavy applications).

I just don't want us to neglect technologies that will help until we make fuel-cell cars practical (and afterward too). Ethanol will probably be important even after fuel-cell cars are practical for heavier apps and certain industrial applications for power and heating processes.

Re GM, it's interesting to note that although GM owns SAAB and was involved in the development of the 9-5 BioPower FFV which uses computer controlled turbo-charging to take advantage of the higher octane of ethanol fuel, GM doesn't use that in any of it's domestic FFVs. Saab's 9-5 BioPower gets just a s good as mileage on ethanol85 as it does on gasoline. That's what optimizing for the higher octane of ethanol 85 accomplishes. GM sells a number of cars right now that are turbo-charged and super-charged. NOne of them are FFVs.

I don't trust GM any farther than I can throw them. But if they will help to develop a valuable technology, I'm all for that. We are going to need to do everything we can to deal with the fossil fuel problem (dependence on imports and Global Warming). I'll take participation from any quarter.

But we still lack a Government initiative to double ethanol production as quickly as we can (shoot for 4 yrs). We are very likely going to experience a disruption of our oil supply in the next 3 to 5 yrs and we can't wait 5 to 6 yrs for cellulosic ethanol to become practical (after which it will take several yrs to build up capacity) to provide some insurance for our economic and strategic security. Building corn ethanol production capacity all we can right now will enable us to make cellulosic ethanol practical (produced efficiently) sooner and scale up production of it quicker.

[Hope springs eternal]

25. Still doesn't change one fact:

Public transit is far more effecent that any possbile fuel we could find. Subways anyone?


Now, for you countrybumpkins, cars could still be an option. But since only 1/10 or less of us will actually live out there, then the other 90% will be buying a transit pass.

[Dead_Parrot]

26. ...transit fueled by what?

Public transport is effecient, but nowhere near the effeciency required. we're still screwed.

[Hope springs eternal]

40. Uhhh....

Renewables? Fact is, a subway car carrying 100 people probably uses 10x less energy than a car carrying one.......

[GOPBasher]

28. Ethanol is good, but for one major concern.

It wood compete with the same land used for food production. So, more ethanol seems to mean less food, or, put in better terms, higher food prices. That would be a strain on the economy. It would also further erode our already depleted top-soil resource. These are just things I'm thinking off the top of my head. If anyone has actual numbers to tell me whether or not my concern is valid, please let me know. :-)

One side point: As other posters have pointed out, conservation is much better than any alternative fuel.

[missouri dem 2]

29. Ethanol is at best a small part of future energy needs but it does

necessarily interfere with food production. The by-products of ethanol can be used for animal feeds.

[Strelnikov_]

30. Wet Milling Process Retains Most Of The Human Food Value

Extracts oils, germ etc. My impression is that this is not done much right now due to the added cost and energy hit.

I view ethanol as an energy carrier, and can see a future where any crop that can be fermented is run through the ethanol process, with process energy coming from renewable sources or co-generation.

Crop + 1 unit energy (wind) -> Food + 1 unit energy (ethanol)

[GOPBasher]

32. Oh really?

I didn't know that. That's pretty cool, then. (I'm assuming you made a typo and meant to say it "doesN'T necessarily interfere with food production. :-))

[missouri dem 2]

33. Sorry about that. It was a typo.

[JohnWxy]

38. Nobody expects or wants ethanol production to compete with food

production for the obvious reason- people have to eat. A study by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory estimates ethanol potential to be 30% of gasoline demand, with a minimal impact on food production. One of the biproducts of ethanol production is protein feed supplements for cattle. Ethanol does not use the protein content of the feed crop only the starch portion is needed for ethanol. Ethanol is made, currently in U.S. from what is called feed lot corn - never intended for human consumption.

But nobody is expecting ethanol production to replace any food production. That is not an acceptable option.

In the near future the use of switch grass means marginal land for food crops could be used for growing switchgrass. Celluosic ethanol can also be made from agricultural and forest product s waste. Again, no competition with food crops. Agricultural and forest product waste is currently, as the terms implies, wasted - burned or buried in land-fills (where, by the way, it decays and produces GHGs).

I do not know (kind of doubt) if "energy crops" such as switchgrass were considered in the ORNL study. NOte that swithcgrass has very low requirements for fertilizer and little to no requirement for pesticides. Swithchgrass productivity FAR exceeds that of corn.


Ethanol is not going to be the complete answer. Embracing ethanol does NOT imply neglecting other viable technologies or approaches - certainly greater efficiency in all powered devices engines and appliances must be pursued.


Keep in mind also, every dollar not going out of the economy to buy imported oil but spent on a domestic resource is actually "worth" more than just that dollar gained. It gets spent and respent in the domestic economy. This contributes to economic growth and standard of living in a way money sent out of the country cannot. That one dollar taken out of the imported oil account and into spent for domestic resources turns into several dollars in the end. Dependence on foreign oil puts our economy at considerable jeopardy to disruptions from oil supply constraints.

[Strelnikov_]

31. John, I Get The Impression You Like Alcohol . . .

even more than the Vice-President.

[rfkrfk]

34. the benefit to poor countries, would be huge

if sugar cane stalks, nut shells, grass, etc,
could be converted to alcohol.

consider plant breeders, if cellulose suddenly becomes desireable,
there may be plants that could be improved

every gallon of alcohol, is two-thirds gallon of
petroleum that no longer needs to be imported

keep in mind that labor costs are very low, in many countries.
the only thing high tech to produce 95 percent alcohol,
would be the 'new' enxymes,,,some additional processing is
needed to make the dehydrated alcohol suitable for gasoline blends.

I am not necessarily saying that cellulostic ethanol will work out.

[IronLionZion]

37. switchgrass

Dubya has an affinity for switchgrass for some reason. Odd, given his other affinity for oil companies.

The only way for any type of alternative energy to gain serious momentum is for oil companies to become energy companies. Oil is just too expensive, in dollars and in human lives. Ethanol has serious potential but they need a better source than corn. Corn sucks. Switchgrass or hemp may be better. Industrial hemp is useful for all kinds of things. Getting high is not one of them.

[Dead_Parrot]

41. Staggered by ethanol...

Sorry, just too tempting... :evilgrin:





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