Has Global Oil Production Peaked? - CS Monitor

[hatrack]

EDIT

"If it has - or if a peak lies only a few years away - the repercussions would be huge. It could intensify a scramble by oil importers to tie up existing reserves. Decline could lead to scarcity and higher prices, possibly recession, while prompting an urgent push to alternative fuels and conservation.

EDIT

Even calculating current reserves is tricky. The Royal Dutch/Shell Group, one of the world's largest oil producers, shocked the financial community earlier this month when it announced it had overbooked its proven reserves by 20 percent - an indication of the fragility of such estimates. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) puts yearly world consumption of oil today at about 30 billion barrels. That comes out of known or proven world reserves of 1.1 trillion barrels, according to IHS Energy, an oil and gas information-gathering group in Tetbury, England. By adding in Canada's oil sands, the Oil and Gas Journal in Houston raises proven reserves to 1.266 trillion.

EDIT

Advocates of a production peak coming soon offer several pieces of evidence:

• Total world oil production reached 68 million barrels per day in 2003, according to a count by the Oil and Gas Journal. That's not much above the 66.7 million barrels per day. in 2001. Oil reserves estimated at 1.266 trillion are up only a bit from 1.213 trillion a year earlier.

• Production has peaked for more than 50 oil-producing nations, including the US (1970) and Britain (1999). China, second to the US in the consumption of oil, was a net exporter of oil until five years ago.

• The Department of Energy predicts world demand will reach 119 million b.p.d. in 2025, with huge increases in China, India, and other developing nations.

• In 2002, the world used four times as much oil as was newly found.

• The rate of discovery of worldwide oil reserves, after declining for 40 years, has slowed to a trickle. In 2000, there were 16 large discoveries of oil, eight in 2001, three in 2002, and none last year, notes James Meyer, director of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in London.

• All the giant fields, such as those in the Middle East, have already been discovered, some experts say. These giants are relatively easy to find. The last major oil field, Cantarell, off Mexico's shore, was discovered in 1976."

EDIT

http://csmonitor.com/2004/0129/p14s01-wogi.html

[brainshrub]

1. Here's a link that I found a few days ago:

CGES Sees `Genuine Shortage' Of Oil, OPEC Won't Cut In '04
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/dowjones/20040126/bs_dowjones/200401261328001093

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- High oil prices stem from an actual shortage of crude, not speculators trying to run up prices, the Center for Global Energy Studies said Monday.

"Oil prices reflect a genuine shortage of oil in the market," the London-based energy consultants said in their monthly report.

The report cited high oil prices, 30-year-low U.S. commercial petroleum stock levels and high shipping costs.

"The oil market is signaling in no uncertain terms that the world is short of oil," CGES said. Year-on-year demand could grow 1.5 million barrels a day.

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Peak Oil is here. Be afraid. Be very, very afraid.

[mattshortridge]

3. Peak is here

Princeton Prof. and veteran texas oilman, Kenneth Deffeyes, author of "Hubbert's Peak" has been saying that the peak happened in 2000 or 2001. It seems that now it is starting to rear its ugly head in the marketplace--and the battlefield for that matter.
Matt Simmons will speak in DC on the 24th of this month on the reality of what lies beneath Saudi Arabia.
Julian Darley is speaking in Takoma Park MD on the 23rd of Feb. DC area people can email me offline for details on that talk.

[brainshrub]

4. I would like to drive up to DC for that speech

I am very interested in Peak Oil and it's ramifications.

In my opinion, the invasion of Iraq was triggered by Peak Oil. It's not being said out loud, but the executives of the oil companies know what is about to happen.

It's a fine line between tin-foil hat and factual information. The screw-nuts have begun to gear up for the big Peak Oil scare. It's going to be a VERY interesting decade.

[mn9driver]

2. Time to sell the SUV. nt.

[jmcgowanjm]

5. 300 billion barrels accounting for a third of world proved reserves

should be questioned. In a paper submitted to the
journal Nature last year, he wrote that in 1988 and
1989 Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates
and Saudi Arabia - all members of the Organisation
of Petroleum Exporting Countries - reported upward
revisions of 277 billion barrels of oil, accounting for
almost the total growth in global oil reserves between
1987 and 1990.
http://dieoff.com/page144.htm

As for R/P ratios, oil does not flow freely from a large
container marked "proved reserves." Rather, each
field has an optimal range of production (depending
on the size of the oil field and other considerations)
which, if continuously exceeded, will jeopardize the
field's long-term productivity(Campbell).
ed.-see Iraq for details.

So when it's said that we have only used/eaten
half the oil/pie, it's the best half of the oil/pie.

And you can start marking down either Alberta's natural
gas amount or the amount of bitumen (think old oil that has become solid) available.
At the centre of the issue is a concern that by depleting gas reserves that sit atop the bitumen, companies will inadvertently lower the pressure of the bitumen reserves below and make it impossible to bring them to the surface using current steam-assisted technology.

http://216.239.41.104/search?q=cache:wJZEal3Gv34J:www.canoe.ca/EdmontonBusiness/es.es-01-27-0076.html++paramount+energy+trust+january+27+gas+bitumen&hl=en&ie=UTF-8