Global warming risk 'much higher'

[cal04]

Global temperatures will rise further in the future than previous studies have indicated, according to new research from two scientific teams. They both used historical records to calculate the likely amplification of warming as higher temperatures induce release of CO2 from ecosystems.

They both conclude that current estimates of warming are too low, by anything up to 75%. The research will be published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. The studies challenge the consensus view of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global body charged with collating and analysing climate science.

It predicts that the global average temperature would rise by between 1.5C and 4.5C if human activities were to double the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. That figure, known as the climate sensitivity, results from a combination of two factors:
*the direct impact of rising CO2 on the greenhouse effect
*various "feedback" mechanisms which amplify the rate of warming, such as changes in the Earth's reflection of sunlight as ice melts

The new research adds a third component, by calculating the likely contribution of carbon dioxide released from natural ecosystems such as soil as temperatures rise. This would add to the CO2 produced through human activities, raising temperatures still further.

more
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5006970.stm

[dipsydoodle]

1. The loss of ice causes a paradox.

Rising sea levels reduce the land mass, which stores heat, to the extent that temperatures cool again. Models indicate that factor could eventually lead to another ice age. The moral it to maintain the staus quo and do something now to help prevent the ice caps from disappearing.

[brokensymmetry]

3. Yes, but....

the reflectivity of seawater is quite low - so it
could absorb heat more efficiently than would land
mass.

[dipsydoodle]

5. However -

surely hard ground, not desert, retains heat better than water regardless of its salinity.
It would be the reduced amount of heat retention which would lead to the changes I mentioned.

[brokensymmetry]

6. I think you'll find otherwise.

Here's a quote:

Why it happens: The specific heat of water is 1.0 calorie per gram while the specific heat of soil is about 0.2 calories per gram. This means it takes five times more energy to raise the water temperature 1o than the soil temperature. Or, with the same energy input, the soil temperature will increase five times more than the water temperature.

Notice that the specific heat of water is five times that of soil.

Here's the link: http://www.wtamu.edu/~crobinson/SoilTemp/index.html

[acmejack]

2. But, but, Faux News says there is nothing to worry about!

You liberal alarmist! And there faithful viewers took their spew to heart and were eagerly parroting that rot yesterday too! We are doomed with stupidity such as this running rampant and free among us.

[rfkrfk]

4. how can something that varies by a factor of three, be trusted?

who do you trust?

one guy says, climate change is 1.5
next guy says, climate change is 4.5

edited for typo