Ethanol is not a cure-all for U.S. energy woes

[4dsc]

But most of us knew this already!!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13806142/

Ethanol is far from a cure-all for the nation's energy problems. It's not as environmentally friendly as some supporters claim and would supply only 12 percent of U.S. motoring fuel — even if every acre of corn were used.

A number of researchers, the latest in a report Monday, are warning about exaggerated expectations that ethanol could dramatically change America's dependence on foreign oil by shifting motorists away from gasoline.

As far as alternative fuels are concerned, biodiesel from soybeans is the better choice compared with corn-produced ethanol, University of Minnesota researchers concluded in an analysis Monday.

[jwirr]

1. We need to understand that there will be NO one cure for our

energy problems - it will be a number of approaches. Kind of like the old adage "Don't put all your eggs in one basket."

[blueinchicago]

18. Are these discusssions propaganda themselves?

Here is a link to a NYT article about people already using biodiesel. We discuss this like it will happen sometime in the future. It's happening now.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/05/business/05biowillie.html?ex=1153195200&en=e705e3ed88a197f1&ei=5070

Seems to me that any engine that is used primarily in summer months could be converted to biodiesel: tractors, riding lawnmowers, cars, whatever.

Forget theory, forget research, look to the pragmatists!

[msongs]

2. battery cars w/solar rechargers on the roof

would do the trick for high-sunshine areas.

most driving is local and short mileage, so cars like this would be very effective. current battery cars go what, around 100 miles or so per charge? few people drive 100 miles every day except for long distance commuters and people going on trips.

doesn't matter if the cars look clunky or ugly. the solar charger can be seen as a status symbol.people need to get over the car-as-self-esteem or penis subsitute thing.

Msongs
www.msongs.com/6for2008.htm

[Mr_Spock]

3. This is BULLSHIT!!!! CORN is NOT a good ethanol crop.

Saying this is purely deceptive. Believe it or not, that sawgrass or whatever Bush was talking about makes many times as much ethanol per acre as corn. It is a matter of making a commitment and developing geneticically engineered crops that could produce many many times the ethanol per acre as corn. Corn is a terrible ethanol crop.

[Javaman]

4. It was never about what is the correct crop, it's about the agra biz...nt

[NickB79]

5. I believe it is switchgrass, and it requires cellulosic ethanol production

The first major cellulosic ethanol production facility is still 5+ years away from production, unfortunately.

[Mr_Spock]

6. As if 5 years is a long time in the grand scheme of things!

Imagine if we had started planning ahead in 1977-78 after the first oil crisis?

Genetically engineered crops & massive facilities (you know, like the multi-billions of dollars we put into nuclear & other power faciolities) would make this a viable alternative. We are simply being deceived by the oil industry and it PISSES me OFF!!!

[NickB79]

7. Well, switchgrass has nothing to do with nuclear

Since we are only talking about producing biofuels for vehicle transportation. Nuclear supplies electricity for homes, businesses and manufacturers. The only real alternative to nuclear is coal, unfortunately.

And if we are hitting or will hit Peak Oil within the next few years, every DAY of construction counts, the grand scheme be damned. Once fuel prices skyrocket, our economy grinds down as recession and then depression set in. When these set in, investment money for construction of alternative fuels facilities, such as cellulosic ethanol production, plummet. It could turn into a vicious cycle of diminishing investment and production.

[Mr_Spock]

8. I was talking about the scale of things - we aren't taking this seriously!

Why did you key of the word nuclear & electricity when I was simply making a point about how we aren't properly scaling up to meet the demands with alternative fuels?

Do you have a better alternative or are you just here to promote doom and gloom?

Clearly we could scale up as we have done with everything else and make this a viable alternative. I'm open for alternate suggestions. Don't you find it fascinating that Brazil is energy independent? It may not be a comparable situation, but it is worth noting.

[4dsc]

9. Switchgrass and other urban myths..

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/7/03949/82426

Damn good read about switchgrass.

Scouring the web with an eye toward understanding a bit more about the use of biomass-based ethanol as a replacement for gasoline, it has become apparent to me that there are a substantial number of "urban legends" emerging regarding the use of switchgrass as a feedstock for ethanol. More properly, these misconceptions are "rural legends," because at least from this former farm kid's perspective they arise from the fact that most people have very little connection to the land, and as such, are simply blowing a lot of wishful smoke about the details of a biomass-based fuel system. Hopefully the analysis below will shed a bit of light on the subject.

[Mr_Spock]

12. Another very narrow view of ONLY switchgrass versus corn

This is utter BS. Nobody is using their heads in this regard. Look at all the innovation they have made in cross-breeding and genetic splicing WRT fruits & vegetables. People act like there is or never will be any incentive to do the same sort of engineering WRT fuel producing crops!! That is so narrow-minded that it makes my head spin! There already exist non-edible corns & other grasses that put regular corn and switchgrass to shame - and they exist today. I have a feeling that someone somewhere is trying to ensure that we don't get into the biofuel arena anytime soon. Any idea who that might be? :tinfoilhat:

If people here on DU can't see the forest for the trees, then I guess we are doomed to years & years without innovation in this regard.

[4dsc]

13. So tell us more..

I just love people how come here shouting that "innovation" are being made in every field imaginable yet don't offer in the way of any proof as just how will solve the energy problem we are facing.. And inasmuch as biofuels will play a small part of future energy needs, wouldn't it be more prudent to prepare to use less fuel instead of praying we can continue down this slippery slope of energy waste??

But then again, perhaps its all a big hoax and in 15 years the world will be producing 100 billion barrels of oil per day versus 55 bbpd as others are predicting.. Whom shall we believe??

[leftupnorth]

14. You're wasting your time with 4dsc

He/she is not interested in rational, fact based arguments about biofuels - just demagoguery and straw man arguments. Misinformation and doom and gloom are his/her message of choice.

But it is encouraging to see more and more people not buying the doom and gloom and the anti-energy independence BS.

[4dsc]

15. What rational and fact based arguements

are you talking about?? Its already been proven that corn based ethanol is not the answer for our future energy woes!! Most people here are on a steady diet of DENIAL about our future will less oil, alot less oil. And when faced with a little reality reacted just have you have done..

Do I want or would like to see a future with less oil, no. But I am not sticking my head into the sand praying and hoping that we are going to discover some MIRACLE fuel that will save us all. I am not in denial about what the future holds for us with alot less oil. The PARTY's over people and its only a matter of time..

SO you keep wishing and praying, or better yet, clicking your heals together chanting, there's no such thing as peak oil, there's no such thing as peak oil.. Ethanol will save us all!! Its business as usual because we don't want to face reality!!

[NNadir]

17. Oh please...

...You're entire schtick is pointless since it consists solely of nonsense about how "there is no solution." Are you trying to get people to kill themselves so they'll be more oil in which for you to bathe? For what, exactly, are you asking?

One need not be a member of the ethanol lobbyist school to recognize that biofuels, or biosource carbon, can play an important role in the energy future. There is (as opposed to the same tired links to peak oil websites) scientific literature on the subject. I referenced here on this webiste a recent article in Chemical Reviews on this subject. The thread dropped quickly because it's not as sexy as shouting "Peak! Peak! Peak!" like a bunch of crazed hippies on acid in the 1970's. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x59526

For the record this article from a scientific journal suggests that the potential for biofuels is between 150 and 450 EJ per year. Do you have in all this whining about the extremely dangerous fuel, oil, any sense about how many exajoules of oil is burned each year?

You don't?

That is a surprise.

I don't necessarily believe that ethanol or any other biofuel is a magic bullet, but as described in the scientific journal science (again not a peak oil website), their are many existing strategies that can act as wedges to prevent catastrophe.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x59612

You don't understand anything at all about technology. Zip.

[4dsc]

19. Oh boy..

You're entire schtick is pointless since it consists solely of nonsense about how "there is no solution." Are you trying to get people to kill themselves so they'll be more oil in which for you to bathe?

ACtually my schtick is that there is no viable alternative to oil on the scale needed to replace it!! And nobody here has offer such a resource or plan that would be the alternative to oil.. While there are many "substitutes" for oil, there are none that will match it for scalability..

http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

For the record this article from a scientific journal suggests that the potential for biofuels is between 150 and 450 EJ per year. Do you have in all this whining about the extremely dangerous fuel, oil, any sense about how many exajoules of oil is burned each year?

I guess you don't understand the difference between potential and actual.. Even your own article make the claim of the potential in 2050. Sorry to say but by the year 2050 there will be very little in the way of oil production compared to what we have now.. There are some that claim that worldwide production of existing well will decrease from 80 mbpd to 25 mbpd by the year 2020.. What profound effect would that have on agriculture not to mention our society as a whole..


their are many existing strategies that can act as wedges to prevent catastrophe.

Again with the 50 year from now!!

What if peak oil is occurring now??? then we don't have 50 years do we and that's where most people here are in denial.. SO here's a little quote I found that I thought would apply here...

We like to continue to believe what we have been accustomed to accept as true, and the resentment aroused when doubt is cast upon any of our assumptions leads us to seek every manner of excuse for clinging to them. The result is that most of our so-called reasoning consists in finding arguments for going on believing what we already do. And now the astonishing and perturbing suspicion emerges that perhaps almost all that has passed for social science, political economy, politics, and ethics in the past may be brushed aside by future generations as mainly rationalizing.

- James Harvey Robinson, The Mind in the Making

[NNadir]

20. Sigh...more links to peak oil websites, more ignorance of the science.

So what is the Kunstler clone position? That all of this is going to happen on July 16, 2056?

I note that the Science paper is not written by either Simmons or Kunstler or any one of the high priests of the "peak oil" religion. On the contrary, it was actually know what they're talking about.

Oil should be banned, the sooner the better. Fear and fetishes do not help this process.

The conversion from the coal economy to to the oil economy took less than 20 years. We're in much better shape now than we were then since we now know a lot more about something called science.

[Strelnikov_]

16. Hot Off The Presses. Corn Ethanol More Efficient In The US

Helps having a tropical climate I guess.

I have only done a quick read on the report, but their analysis seems to be based on economic cost, not energy efficiency. My bet is that when energy efficiency (increasing energy costs) are factored in, the 'sugar' ethanol sources would fare better.

Lots of good data to support development of those back of the envelope energy plans.

The Economic Feasibility of Ethanol Production From Sugar in the United States
U.S. Department of Agriculture
July, 2006

http://www.usda.gov/oce/EthanolSugarFeasibilityReport3.pdf (.pdf)

A report by researchers from the US Department of Agriculture and Louisiana State University on the economic feasibility of the production of ethanol from sugar in the US has concluded that while such production could be economically viable in the short-term given the current high prices of ethanol, an expected moderation in prices could make it unprofitable for most sugar and raw sugar feedstocks by the summer of 2007.

The study assessed the production of ethanol from sugar feedstocks including (1) sugarcane juice, (2) sugar beet juice, (3) cane or beet molasses, (4) raw sugar and (5) refined sugar. Of those, only the cost of molasses was low enough to make it competitive with corn.

In general, the study found that estimated ethanol production costs using sugarcane, sugar beets, raw sugar, and refined sugar as a feedstocks are more than twice the production cost of converting corn into ethanol.


Also, considering the DOE is releasing a ‘Roadmap For Research’ into Cellulosic Ethanol, IMHO this technology is in the same category as fuel cells. That is, ‘scalable someday, maybe’.

http://www.energybulletin.net/18055.html

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has released a detailed research agenda for the development of cellulosic ethanol as an alternative to gasoline. The 200-page research roadmap—Breaking the Biological Barriers to Cellulosic Ethanol: A Joint Research Agenda—resulted from the Biomass to Biofuels Workshop held in December 2005.

The roadmap identifies the research required for overcoming challenges to the large-scale production of cellulosic ethanol, including maximizing biomass feedstock productivity, developing better processes by which to break down cellulosic materials into sugars, and optimizing the fermentation process to convert sugars to ethanol. Cellulosic ethanol is derived from the fibrous, woody and generally inedible portions of plant matter (biomass).

The roadmap responds directly to the goal recently announced by Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman of displacing 30% of 2004 transportation fuel consumption with biofuels by 2030. This goal was set in response to the President’s Advanced Energy Initiative.


(Hint, using production rates in the first cited report, we could replace 30% today using existing crops, with minor impact to food production. As I have stated ad-nausium, IMHO the only issue is the source of the process energy).

[drm604]

10. Lately I've been thinking that ethanol would be most efficiently produced

by some kind of bio-engineered fungus or plankton growing in tanks. You would be directly converting water, air and sunlight into alcohol. You use no agricultural land and you don't have to use energy to harvest and transport crops to some central facility. It could be done anywhere that has sufficient supplies of sunlight and water.

Of course Archer Daniels Midland and ConAgra won't be lobbying for it...

[NNadir]

11. There is some hope this idea can be practiced with biodiesel.

Right now it's all largely theoretical, but I think long term it may be possible to make competitive algae based biodiesel.