7/11 Drought Monitor - Intensity Slips Slightly, But Area Grows In Size

[hatrack]

The Plains and Midwest: A few thunderstorms rolled across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this week, but overall rainfall was generally light from central Montana to Michigan. Abnormally high temperatures, especially on July 7 and 8, intensified the dry conditions. As a result, D0 dryness expanded across central and eastern Montana and farther southward in Minnesota and Wisconsin. D1 drought expanded into central Minnesota and into central Wisconsin. D2 drought developed in northern Wisconsin. D3 drought encroached into southern North Dakota and farther into southern South Dakota. D4 drought developed in north-central South Dakota. Some locations in South Dakota have reported less than 3 inches of rain since April 1. Temperatures on July 7 reached triple-digit levels in both North and South Dakota. Soil moisture was rated by USDA as more than 70% short or very short in the Dakotas. Farther south, heavy rains on July 10 ranging up to 4 inches improved D1 drought by one category in parts of central Iowa. Thirty-day rainfall totals less than half of normal have reduced streamflows and soil moisture in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula as well as in southwest Michigan, leading to D0 development. Heavy rains on July 10 brought some improvement to southern Missouri, but lack of rain in southern Illinois led to D0 development there.

The East: Over 3 inches of rain eradicated lingering D0 dryness in southern Virginia, while the D0 to D1 status was little changed in the Carolinas.

Gulf Coast and South: Another week of heavy rains exceeding 2 inches eliminated most remaining areas of dryness from coastal Texas. In Louisiana, 2 to 5 inches of rain cut back drought in the south, with conditions varying from normal in the southwest to D3 in the southeast. Another week of only scattered showers allowed D3 drought to expand eastward from southern Alabama into Florida’s western Panhandle. Mobile, Alabama, experienced its 10th straight month of below-normal rainfall in June, and was running 21.23 inches below normal for the year as of July 10. Pensacola, Florida, registered its third driest June on record (0.58 inches) and its driest since 1921. Persistent dry weather resulted in D1 drought expansion over eastern and north-central Arkansas, with an area of D2 developing north of Little Rock.

West: Heavy monsoon rains extended across the region, with weekly totals of 2 to 5 inches in many parts of New Mexico and Colorado. The moisture reduced fire danger and benefited crops and grasslands, although the impact on water supplies was less. The rains led to a general one- to two-category drought reduction across New Mexico and much of Colorado. Parts of western New Mexico improved to D1, but a small area of D3 remained from near Las Vegas, New Mexico, to Los Alamos due to continuing water shortages.

Outlying Areas: In Alaska, although 0.5 to locally 2.0 inches of precipitation fell on nearby areas, the regions experiencing abnormal dryness received only a few tenths of an inch at best, allowing conditions to persist. Wildfire potential remained very high to extreme across interior northeastern Alaska, but improved across southeastern Alaska with more favorable wind and relative humidity levels; however, the moisture content of all but the shallowest layer of potential wildfire fuels remains unfavorably low throughout the abnormally dry area.

Looking Ahead: Current and forecast weather that may have an impact on dry or drought areas in the next 2 weeks include: 1) hot weather from Montana to Michigan along with little rain during July 12-17 over areas that have seen worsening dryness; 2) mostly dry weather and high temperatures across the West and Great Plains over areas that have seen recent relief and those that have not; 3) hot during July 18-22, according to the 6-10 day forecast, across the West and High Plains, but above-normal rains in central and eastern Montana and parts of the Southwest, along with below-normal rains over the central and southern Plains and Mississippi Valley; 4) wet and cool weather forecast during week 2, July 20-26, over the northern Plains.

Author: Doug Le Comte and Tom Heddinghaus, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA

EDIT/END

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[paparush]

1. Its an Inconvenient Truth that Global Warming is sucking the moisture

out of the soil...

The weather hates America.

[jwirr]

2. Here in Northern Minnesota we have had enough rain but we are

still behind.