So, exactly how much solar electricity is Germany producing?

[NNadir]

The German government announced in 2002 that it had reached an agreement with the electricity companies in their country and to replace it with renewable energy. Many people have crowed enthusiastically here and elsewhere, about Germany's grand renewable future.

This was represented, in spite of the fact that nuclear power produces very little carbon dioxide, as a scheme to address global climate change, in a typical display of the power of denial.

From my perspective, of course, this is a very dumb idea and proves, without any requirement to the contrary, that the ability to embrace national stupidity is not limited to Americans. I see this program as an environmental disaster of the first order and a demonstration of how stupidity above all other factors, represents the real cause of global climate change.

Denial is big in Germany, as I recently noted, since Germany has announced that as part of its commitment to addressing global climate change, it will not count coal carbon dioxide emissions in its carbon dioxide accounting.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=58669

Out of sight, out of mind.

This will include the 8 new huge coal plants that Germany is now planning to build.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=57605

I have just come across a presentation from a solar industry consulting firm analyzing all of the world's big renewable solar heroes, Japan, California, my own home, New Jersey, and of course, "Coal Doesn't Count" Germany.

I direct the attention of readers to the slide on page 11 showing the clearly "exponential" growth of solar power in Germany.

http://www.southeastgreenpower.net/members/presentations/Atlanta_TA_3_06.ppt#11

The units on the left side of the ordinate are GW-hr/a, which technically a unit of power since it is a unit of energy per unit time, gigawatt-hours, divided by a unit of time (year, written as annum). However it is an illustrative unit none the less, since it measures actual power delivered, and not magical "peak" solar power, the unit always played up by the "solar will save us" crowd. As it happens, also in an illuminating case, the same graph the magical "peak" power watts is given.

What do we learn from these numbers?

In 2004, two years into the "plan" to phase out nuclear power in a time frame so that all of the responsibility for providing replacement energy will fall on future generations, Germany produced 459 GW-hr of solar electricity. It is easy to convert a GW-hr to joules, and we do this, we find that Germany produced, in 2004, 0.00168 exajoules of solar PV electricity. Dividing this by the number of seconds in a sidereal year, we see that in physicist watts (J/s), we see that solar electricity in Germany produced 52 MW of continuous average. Now, if solar electricity were a continuous load form of energy, which most, but not all, people know it is not, it would be equivalent to about 1/10th the size of an average coal plant.

If we chose the smallest single nuclear plant in Germany, Neckarwestheim-1, (785 MWe) we see that the entire national solar power output of the renewable paradise now breaking out all over Germany would represent 7% of this plant's capacity. If we chose the largest Germany, Phillipsburg-2, (1392 MWe) we would see that the entire national solar PV electricity available in Germany would provide for 4% of the single plants capacity.

This data gives us an opportunity to get an idea of the average capacity factor of solar systems in Germany, where it snows, gets cloudy, rains, and - with Germany nominally being on the planet earth - where the sun disappears for about half the time on average.

Since Germany has 700 magical solar Mega"watts" of power, and produces 52 physicist watts of real energy, the capacity factor of solar cells in Germany is a whopping 7% over all.

It is a good thing that Germany plans to meet its Kyoto commitments by announcing that coal doesn't count. Otherwise it would be pretty much without a shot.

[jpak]

1. Nonsense

How can Germany have only "700 magical MW" of PV when they installed 837 MW of PV capacity last year (2005) alone????

Germany currently has >2100 MW of PV capacity and is expected to add ~1000 MW this year.

Nice try though!!!!!

[Terry in Austin]

2. Hey, if it ain't nuclear,

...it ain't nothin'! ;-)

[NNadir]

6. This is not what I am saying. I am saying that solar "peak" power

is insufficient to address global climate change.

Renewable power should be encouraged, but people need a sense of scale.

There is a class of renewable advocates who think that nuclear energy is the enemy and that coal is somehow OK. In a rational world, especially a world where people are dying in the streets from heat stroke, as happened to tens of thousands of people in Europe in 2003, and may be happening right now, this is immoral.

The GERMANS ARE BUILDING COAL fired plants and yet CANNOT PRODUCE A SINGLE EXAJOULE of the power they advertised to replace nuclear energy. This is irrational, stupid, criminal, morally wrong, distractable, ignorant, dopey, foolish, delusional, insane and so on.

Nobody argues with a bunch of rich kids playing with their solar powered toys. It is fine to play with toys if you can afford them, and if you must choose toys, toys that displace tiny amounts of natural gas are better than toys that burn gas. But the fact is, as is shown quite clearly in the data offered in the graph on page 11 from the solar promoters the continuous power is 50MWe. This is trivial in the face of an international emergency of vast scale.

It is NOT a joke.

Germany produced nearly two exajoules of nuclear primary energy in 2004, almost 0.6 exajoules of electrical energy.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table27.xls

A bunch of intellectual and moral jerks have argued that this energy, which harmed zero people in 2004 is somehow the problem. By this action they have greatly exacerbated the real problem.

I have shown a data from a solar promotional consultant showing that Germany's claim to be able to replace nuclear a constant load source of energy is pure nonsense. I have produced two links from the New York Times showing that what Germany is doing is to replace their nuclear energy with the only form of energy that can compete with it:

COAL.

The anti-nuclear position is the pro-coal position. People are dying from this choice: Right now. Today. As we speak. Currently. Dropping Dead In The Streets.

OK?

I have never argued that nuclear energy is risk free. I have only pointed out, correctly, that it is risk minimized. The dead of this heat wave and the next heat waves and the next drought and the next hurricane should give some graphic measure, in scientific units known as DB (Dead Bodies), of what exactly minimized means.

[ladjf]

3. Good catch jpak!

[Massacure]

4. NNadir is using data from 2004.

How many gigaWatt-hours did Germany produce in 2005?

[jpak]

5. A very conservative estimate = 2300 GWh in 2005

assuming an average of 3 hours peak sun per day...

note: PV modules produce electricity continually throughout the daylight hours (and even on cloudy rainy days) - not just during peak insolation periods...

By 2016 Germany will have somewhere between 12 and 22+ GW of PV capacity producing between 13,000 to 24,000 GWh of electricity per year (depending on the rate of growth of their PV capacity).

...and that is in addition to electricity produced by wind turbines, biomass and biogas thermal electric plants and hydroelectric dams...

There is little doubt that they can replace their nuclear plants with renewables by 2020...

[Massacure]

7. Where does that estimate come from?

[jpak]

8. 2.1 GWp x 3 hours peak sun per day x # days in the year

700 "magical MW" of PV is what Germany *installed* in 2004.

Germany had a ~1260 "magical MW" of PV capacity in 2004 - not 700...

[Massacure]

9. I don't want any assumptions. I want hard data.

[NNadir]

10. Here is a report from the German Gov't confirming the solar consultants

numbers for energy generated:

http://www.bmu.de/files/english/renewable_energy/downloads/application/pdf/ee_eubericht_eng_short.pdf

Electricity generation from solar power has seen a rapid development in Germany in recent years due to the amended Renewable Energy Sources Act . It was possible to increase its capacity from 188 million kWh in 2002 to 459 million kWh in 2004. However with a share of 0.07 % in the total electricity consumption its significance is comparatively low.

Nuclear energy, the demonic form of energy banned from expansion by the Germans, produces about 30% of their electricity.

The summary gives an overview of the German Renewable Energy industry.

One of the interesting things about the report involves the German plans for 2020, which will call for 20% of it's energy from renewable fuels. One wonders about the plans for the other 80%, particularly with German farms baking in 35C weather with very little wind blowing.

It would seem that Germany has excellent prospects for using geothermal energy, but there seems to be very little impetus to use this source since they really, really, really, really like coal. Geothermal energy could compete with coal and nuclear. No one in their right mind would oppose the expansion of geothermal energy where it is available.

[NNadir]

11. Here is a report generated from IEA data giving the installed PV power

in Germany and other countries.

http://www.oja-services.nl/iea-pvps/isr/22.htm

Note that I arrived at my 700 MWe magical "peak" solar watts figure by looking at the graph, since unlike the annual energy numbers are given explicitly on the graph. The real number of magical "peak" solar watts is slightly higher, meaning that the percentage of name plate capacity loading is actually lower.

Here is the total amount of magical "peak" solar capacity installed on the German grid up to 2004: 768MW (768,000 kw).

Here is the total "off grid" magical "peak" solar capacity installed in Germany: 26 MWe. (26,000 kw).

Thus the total installed capacity is 794 MWe. The capacity utilization factor is thus 52 MWe/794 M"W"e = 0.065 or 6.5%.

[Massacure]

12. So then if we were to trust Jpak's 2.1 GWe power figure

We arrive with roughly 1,200 GW-hrs of electricity in 2005 using your calculated .065 capacity factor.

[NNadir]

13. I am reporting the figures that I have found and giving references.

The references are explicit and clear, and I see no reason to refer to other claims.

Please check your PM for a note of further explanation.

[Ready4Change]

16. While I oft disagree with NNadir, I agree on this topic.

"There is little doubt that they can replace their nuclear plants with renewables by 2020..."

I hope NNadir will correct me if I'm wrong, but I think he would argue that they should be replacing COAL plants, not nuclear plants. And I agree.

[NNadir]

18. It is exactly what I am saying. There should be a worldwide coal

phase-out, a fast phase out.

Decisions of this type should be based on rational experience. No new form of primary energy is likely to be invented in the immediate crisis. We know very well what works and what doesn't work.

Global climate change doesn't work.

Nuclear energy does work.

I will be perfectly happy to discuss the merits of any and all forms of energy when fossil fuels (all of them) are eliminated. Right now though, despite vast unsupported claims, renewable energy has zero chance of producing on a scale sufficient to address global climate change.

We need renewable energy, but it can, at best, serve as a supplement to nuclear energy. The argument that renewable energy is an alternative to nuclear energy is absurd. Fossil fuels (all of them) are the most dangerous fuels in the world. They are killing right now.

[jpak]

14. It's still nonsense

From the figure in the OP....

In 2004, Germany had 1526 MW of (cumulative) installed PV capacity that produced 459 GWh of electricity that year....which averages to ~1257 MWh per day.

Photovoltaic modules do not produce electricity at night - everyone recognizes this. To normalize daily electrical production from PV modules to a 24 hour period is silly and wrong.

For the peak sun period 1.5 hours before and after local solar noon (3 hours on average per day in Germany), Germany produced solar electricity at ~420 MW....for capacity factor of ~27%.

Averaged over an 8 hour photoperiod, that comes to 157 MW...for capacity factor of 10%.

Which is right where it should be.

Again, nice try....

[dcfirefighter]

15. WTF? Do germans not use electricity at night?

I see no justification for NOT normalizing power generation over the entire time power is used.

Do banks not charge interest at night, on loans for PV systems?

[NNadir]

17. The claim is made that solar can replace coal. If the claim were

made that solar could replace natural gas it would be appropriate to discuss its merits in that role.

Solar can, although it remains very expensive, under many important circumstances replace gas, but clearly not in every country. In Germany the claim that solar can significantly replace gas is clearly dubious.

For base load continuous power there is only coal and nuclear, and in certain locations, geothermal energy. Personally, I believe that Germany should maximize its contribution from geothermal, which reportedly could provide as much as 35% of German electricity. But 100%-35% is still 65%.

This demonstrates once and again, conclusively, that the anti-nuclear position is actually a pro-coal position.