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From the Academy of Sciences: effects of 21st heat on California

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villager Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-21-06 03:40 PM
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From the Academy of Sciences: effects of 21st heat on California
<snip>

By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

<snip>

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/101/34/12422
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-21-06 07:48 PM
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1. It's important to note that the B1 scenario is not carbon intensive.
Here is the B1 storyline:

The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population that peaks in midcentury and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives


http://sres.ciesin.org/pdfs/SPM_SRES.pdf
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villager Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-21-06 10:01 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. hmmm.... good addendum. Thanks...
n/t
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