Large Hole Opening In Arctic Sea Ice Above Alaska (Around 75-76 North)

[hatrack]

This is unusual that far north on the Pacific side, and I don't think it's a satellite artifact - it roughly matches what the National Ice Center is showing on their quasi-weekly updates.



It's that big bay-like structure well north of the Bering Strait.

National Ice Center Has much the same pattern on their schematic of the same region:



The large dark-orange area in the upper right of this chart corresponds to the composite satellite image.

[xchrom]

1. let's face it -- it's all dying up there.

there was supposed to be some kind of snap -- increased snow fall that hasn't happened to go along with this warming thing -- that's very disturbing -- and now a hole where there really shouldn't be one.

[Broken_Hero]

2. I have no idea whatsoever

what is being posted, any way to explain in layman's terms?

[hatrack]

3. We're already on track for the lowest Arctic sea ice extent ever . . .

And we won't bottom out until around the first week in September, maybe a touch later.

The main point is two-fold: first, an unusually large sea ice loss in the Arctic Basin is underway, even by the standards of recent years, and second, this isn't necessarily the place you would look for an area this large to open up. The North Atlantic Current (which moves north on the surface past Greenland, Svalbard, Iceland and through the Faroes before circulating back south on the bottom of the ocean) is far stronger than the Black Current, which is the closest large warm current to this part of the Arctic Ocean.

[AX10]

4. There is another thread around here discussing the softening...

of the George VI ice shelf.

[phantom power]

5. That's no artifact, that's a big !#$!%.. *hole.*

[Odin2005]

6. OMFG.

:wow:

[Dogmudgeon]

7. Three weeks to peak melt (September 5, approximately)

That's enough time to calve off a chunk of ice the size of New York state. Maybe two.

What interests me is that the extra exposure will make "more weather". More weather from more evaporation. If oceanic "hot spots" develop in the Arctic Ocean, and the renewal of the ice cover is delayed, it could have an effect on the winter storm pattern that actually starts as early as October.

It could be a worse winter, or it could be an unusually mild one. It's not likely to be "normal", though. I personally like a lot of snow during the winter, but that's just me. I'm sure if we got hit with five or six blizzards and lost power for much of that time, I'd change my mind.

My bigger concern is that so far, the Arctic has warmed up by "only" about five degrees Celsius. In at least one previous warming phase, the warming was about 30C, and that was entirely natural warming. A climatically "hot Arctic" would have meteorological impacts we can't even begin to guess.

My biggest concern, of course, is a climatic "catastrophe" (a mathematically abrupt change, more abrupt than the climate should be able to produce on its own) caused by massive disruption of thermohaline oceanic heat transfer.

--p!

[hatrack]

8. Albedo's a bitch, ain't it?

May as well have another :beer:

[Dogmudgeon]

9. And albedo is only the visible part

No pun intended.

Those oceanic hot-spots can be persistent. I think there was one (or a pair, IIRC) in the North Pacific two years ago, somewhat off Kamchatka; they fortuitously appeared the first year we had major surface seawater temperature discussions here, probably connected to the movie The Day After Tomorrow.

Seawater hotspots in the Arctic, though, would have more pronounced effects on the water and the ice cover; I wonder if this "lake" was formed by one. If it persists through the autumn, it's going to produce some mighty interesting local weather phenomena. (As "local" as a 400-mile-wide hole can be.)

Imagine, if you will, an enormous column of steam rising from open warm water when the air temperature is -30C, with continuous snowfall from the condensation freezing. An enormous snow volcano. All you need are some burning peat bogs and the stench of the dead, and you have the Hyperborea of legend. (Does anyone know the old Nordic name and the legend?)

--p!

[Dogmudgeon]

10. Look there, it's filling in quite nicely

Since the link updates, so does the map. The hole is smaller, and it's entirely icebound. It looks like it will disappear soon. Also, there's now a small "hole" opening up to the east of it.

Still, it's been another indicator of the problems that lie ahead of us.

--p!

[hatrack]

11. Interesting - bridging also to the south, but even so . . .

This is really far north on this side of the A.O.

Should be an interesting month ahead.

[gula]

12. Quebec's Innus have bought air-conditioners for the 1. time

Temperatures were 2oC above average on some days.

[htuttle]

13. "I've had it with these m*therf*cking holes in my m*therf*cking icecap!"

Having spent many decades observing melting ice during Wisconsin springtimes, I'd say that a much, much larger chunk is about to crack off, if not this year, then maybe next. I'd assume the ice sheet is already very undermined around that hole.